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Cognitive Bias in the Formulation of Theories


W. Niederhut
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40 minutes ago, Larry Hancock said:

In line with both Matt and Ben's comments it would probably be a good thing to factor in "consequences" in terms of recruitment.  Certainly if nobody gets hurt, if you are not likely to be immediately picked up or become the focus of a global man hunt then its going to be an easier sell.  I'm not sure I see money or "advancement" in the intelligence business as a major motive for Oswald - his primary frustration at the moment seems to have been around getting Marina to bring the girls and come live with him. 

Which leads back to the consequences and of course to the rifle and hulls. As part of the recruitment for a false flag is Oswald actually going to be firing multiple shots that miss, or just one shot that misses?   Does he leave the rifle and hulls there knowing its a totally deniable weapons that cannot be traced to him and make sure he stays in the building or otherwise give himself an obvious alibi for not being the shooter - like be seen downstairs as quickly as possible by multiple people before and after to cloud his location?  

If so where do the deniable rifle and hulls go and who does the substitution?

Or if he is shooting a weapon that can be traced directly back to him - what does he think is going to happen - I would say that would not be just a bad decision but out and out stupid even if nobody got killed.

I'd like to see some more discussion of how a doable false flag attack would work out in general,  as well as how Oswald would seem to be involved - as differentiated from a simply patsy scenario where its just a matter of  planting a rifle and hulls and having somebody else up there in the window to draw attention to the area.   With a shot fired from there or perhaps elsewhere ....also to be out of the box, does it have to be a shot or could it just be something to make a really loud noise and leave no trace.  

 

Larry-

Interestingly, somebody fired a shot that missed badly, the Tague shot. And then there seems to have been a shot that struck the pavement behind the limo as well. Those are really bad misses, inexplicable if only true assassins were at work (witness the horrible 313-headshot for the work of true marksman). 

So for the sake of argument, let us posit two badly missed shots...ala the Walker shot. 

Perhaps LHO fired a third time. After all, assuming three seconds between shots, that is still only six seconds of shooting (since LHO did not have to aim really in this scenario, let us posit six seconds of shooting). 

OK, if not LHO, who is shooting and missing by 10 to 100 feet during the JFKA? 

Perhaps LHO had followed CIA orders and bought the guns in the name of Alek Hidell, and had been assured that is what the investigation will conclude, that someone named Hidell bought the guns. Plus, he had been assured the JFKA was a fake false-flag op, to be traced to Castro, and such false-flag ops were indeed going on.

LHO does not have any ties to Castro. He will be in the clear once the JFKA attempt is linked to Castro. For all we know, perhaps there was in the ready a Hidell file and Hidell identity waiting to be used, and then a dead Hidell to be found. 

Remember Sara Jane Moore? She shot at President Ford but missed. Judging from news accounts, no one seriously tried to find co-conspirators. In part, because she missed. True, she seemed nutty as well. 

Well, those are some posits. 

Figuring out how LHO was, or was not, involved in the JFKA seems to be a null set.  No answer really seems to work. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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A couple of thoughts/questions,  given Oswald as a false flag, missed shot shooter knowing this all is to be blamed on Castro.

Oswald does know he has been to Russia, he certainly knows he is associated with Castro and there has been considerable media coverage of that.   Unless he has an outstanding alibi such as being seen by multiple people during the shooting he has to know he will be grilled...he would know he would be  a suspect regardless so best have an iron clad alibi. Which of course is a trick if he is doing the shooting.

Still, he would have to stay in place at work and look totally innocent and calm after the shooting even if its a false flag with nobody hit or injured.  On that point note that he leaves well before he learned that the attack was real. Actually he leaves before anybody in the area is really clear on what just happened.

Certainly a couple of things he appears to have done make it look like he was planning on leaving town that day - examples being the ring and money left with Marina being an example.  How does it mesh with his not staying at work. Or having done something more obvious to show he has no plans to leave, like set up a visit to the Paines that weekend?

And on a side note, who is briefing Oswald and giving him all those assurances...somebody he must have some connection to and really trust, someone who has given him assignments before and built up some level of confidence that things work as he promises?

 

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Larry Hancock said:

A couple of thoughts/questions,  given Oswald as a false flag, missed shot shooter knowing this all is to be blamed on Castro.

Oswald does know he has been to Russia, he certainly knows he is associated with Castro and there has been considerable media coverage of that.   Unless he has an outstanding alibi such as being seen by multiple people during the shooting he has to know he will be grilled...he would know he would be  a suspect regardless so best have an iron clad alibi. Which of course is a trick if he is doing the shooting.

Still, he would have to stay in place at work and look totally innocent and calm after the shooting even if its a false flag with nobody hit or injured.  On that point note that he leaves well before he learned that the attack was real. Actually he leaves before anybody in the area is really clear on what just happened.

Certainly a couple of things he appears to have done make it look like he was planning on leaving town that day - examples being the ring and money left with Marina being an example.  How does it mesh with his not staying at work. Or having done something more obvious to show he has no plans to leave, like set up a visit to the Paines that weekend?

And on a side note, who is briefing Oswald and giving him all those assurances...somebody he must have some connection to and really trust, someone who has given him assignments before and built up some level of confidence that things work as he promises?

 

 

 

 

Larry - 

I’ve read somewhere that the WC played up the money LHO left behind but Marina later said it was their savings to rent an apartment at some point. 

Also, there was an explanation for leaving the ring. He wore his Marine Corps ring that day (there’s a fairly clear photo when he’s handcuffed). Apparently that ring is traditionally worn on the wedding finger. 

It’s a big, clunky ring. I can’t imagine trying to work a trigger or bolt with it on, or try to put together the disassembled Carcano in close quarters with limited time.

Why would he wear his Marine Corps ring? One possible explanation is that he was feeling patriotic that day. That would be the likely answer If he wasn’t accused of the crime.

Edited by Michaleen Kilroy
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See LHO’s arrest photo below and a close-up of the ring from DPD.
 
It also appears he was wearing the same ring in the infamous backyard photos - see below as well.
 
It's another of those highly incongruous facts in the case, IMO.  The communist sympathizer and agitator who the WC found was alienated from the U.S. wears a ring signifying patriotism and loyalty to same?
 
 

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7ABFA307-100D-4AF9-A6C7-11C74D26F7CD.jpeg

6A29798D-1D6F-44A5-96B8-391FB342570F.png

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2 hours ago, Larry Hancock said:

A couple of thoughts/questions,  given Oswald as a false flag, missed shot shooter knowing this all is to be blamed on Castro.

Oswald does know he has been to Russia, he certainly knows he is associated with Castro and there has been considerable media coverage of that.   Unless he has an outstanding alibi such as being seen by multiple people during the shooting he has to know he will be grilled...he would know he would be  a suspect regardless so best have an iron clad alibi. Which of course is a trick if he is doing the shooting.

Still, he would have to stay in place at work and look totally innocent and calm after the shooting even if its a false flag with nobody hit or injured.  On that point note that he leaves well before he learned that the attack was real. Actually he leaves before anybody in the area is really clear on what just happened.

Certainly a couple of things he appears to have done make it look like he was planning on leaving town that day - examples being the ring and money left with Marina being an example.  How does it mesh with his not staying at work. Or having done something more obvious to show he has no plans to leave, like set up a visit to the Paines that weekend?

 

Larry,

      Speaking of Oswald "leaving town," didn't Wayne January claim that Oswald and two other people had visited Red Bird Airport before 11/22/63 to discuss the leasing of the Cuban-piloted plane that flew out of Red Bird on the afternoon of 11/22/63?

      I recall reading that story in James Douglass's book, JFK and the Unspeakable.

     I don't know if you delve into this subject in Tipping Point-- I just received my copy of Tipping Point from Amazon last night, and haven't read it yet.

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Actually I was thinking about his wedding band, which he left on a cup on the dresser when he left that day without saying goodby.  That seemed fort of definite.

On the Marine ring, I think Oswald was proud of it and of his service.  Actually he never considered himself a communist per se, socialist would be more like it but at the core he never rejected the US...

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Yes, you will find the January/Red Bird material in Tipping Point - to some extent at least.  I worked with Matthew Smith for  years on that, as well as people from the FAA and others including some nice folks at the Houston Air Center who were really friendly until they figured out where I was going with it...grin. 

But where you will really see that story develop is in the Red Bird Leads paper David Boylan and I am working on now - into Version 8 already. 

And to telegraph the punchline a bit, I do see it as potentially very significant in what his plans  were for that Friday, and they did include leaving Dallas.

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1 hour ago, Larry Hancock said:

Actually I was thinking about his wedding band, which he left on a cup on the dresser when he left that day without saying goodby.  That seemed fort of definite.

On the Marine ring, I think Oswald was proud of it and of his service.  Actually he never considered himself a communist per se, socialist would be more like it but at the core he never rejected the US...

Thanks, Larry.

Yes and my understanding was he couldn’t wear his wedding ring when he wore the MC ring. It was recommended to be worn on the wedding ring finger. He couldn’t wear the two rings on the same finger, as I understand.

in other words, LHO leaving his ring with Marina as a sign he was moving on ‘might’ be a canard.

FYI I got Tipping Point when it came out. Excellent book.

Edited by Michaleen Kilroy
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I'm going to check with a couple of Marine friends but what I see with a quick search says regulations allow you to wear one ring per hand so the advice was if you want to wear both your military ring and wedding band just wear the military ring on your right hand. 

Not wearing the wedding band is pretty significant, especially if you weave it visible at home to  your spouse and wear your Corps ring instead.

It might suggest you are "moving on".   On the other hand perhaps Oswald didn't routinely wear the wedding band?

An interesting question,  perhaps someone has something further on his history with the two rings?

 

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I checked with a friend who was in the Corps at the time and he said that it would have been expected that an active duty Marine you would wear one or the other but not both.  That appears to have changed now and its more one ring per hand as a rule. 

Perhaps someone has some more Oswald ring history but having the wedding band on the dresser suggests that he did wear it at least some of the time....would be interesting if he had been wearing the band and suddenly switched to the Marine ring just that day.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, Larry Hancock said:

Oswald does know he has been to Russia, he certainly knows he is associated with Castro and there has been considerable media coverage of that.   Unless he has an outstanding alibi such as being seen by multiple people during the shooting he has to know he will be grilled...he would know he would be  a suspect regardless so best have an iron clad alibi. Which of course is a trick if he is doing the shooting.

Still, he would have to stay in place at work and look totally innocent and calm after the shooting even if its a false flag with nobody hit or injured.  On that point note that he leaves well before he learned that the attack was real. Actually he leaves before anybody in the area is really clear on what just happened.

Certainly a couple of things he appears to have done make it look like he was planning on leaving town that day 

 

Pure conjecture on my part, but let's say the idea that Oswald wanted to gain entry into Cuba is true; That Delgado's story about Oswald wanting to go fight for Castro was true, that Marina's story of him wanting to hijack a plane to get to Cuba is true, and that his trip to Mexico City really happened, and that said trip wasn't so he could return to Russia, but because he desperately wanted to get to Cuba, and got extremely upset when the Cuban consulate wouldn't allow him to accomplish that.

If all that is true, then it would seem like LHO was game for just about any scenario that could get him to Cuba.

If told that his participation in a false-flag fake assassination attempt on JFK would earn him a free plane ride south of the border afterwards, then perhaps he would accept. And all the things pointing to him knowing he was leaving town would make a bit more sense.

I would say he did indeed stay in place at work and look totally innocent and calm after the shooting, however briefly; he didn't immediately run out of the building. However, as you say, he was bound to know he would be a suspect and did meet Truly and a gun-toting Baker in the lunchroom immediately afterwards (all while also perhaps having a plane to catch...) .

Just throwin some darts at the board here :)

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Well speaking for the dartboard...grin.....I think there is no doubt Oswald was serous about Cuba. And he was not only up for adventure but could be impulsive and not at all risk adverse.  So lets say he is up for an offer and whatever goes on with Marina fails to make him change his mind about taking that sort of offer.

So back to the offer.  If Oswald  had no knowledge that he would be directly incriminated or even a suspect,  he would still have to be cool and stay at work for longer for some time - likely under surveillance as a suspect given his background even if not directly implicated.  If he heads out of town immediately, that day, that week, he will be a suspect.

Of course if he knew he was going to be implicated and took the ride to Cuba immediately he would have to think his reception might be cool -  the arrival of a young fellow who was even a suspect in an attempted attack on JFK would not be good for the Castro regime.

Worse yet, if the False Flag actually succeeded,  Oswald might have arrived during an American attack or invasion....

So what are the circumstances that make sense for such an offer (the nature of which would be pretty obvious if he is asked to fire a rifle, especially his rifle) - it seems he would have to be recruited to do something minor and not told about the attack.  Maybe do something to just support a protest against US policies on Cuba, he might be up for that?

This is an interesting dialog, Oswald's role as a false flag shooter has been talked about for ages as has a false flag attack - but I've never seen anyone dig into the details of making that sort of scenario work,  especially with Oswald.

 

 

 

 

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Well, I would assume Oswald would understand that even a fake assassination attempt would certainly still earn participants a prison term. So getting the hell out of there would have to happen relatively quickly.

Would Oswald have thought Castro would be upset about a false flag against JFK? I know of no public statements by Castro that would have suggested that. Publicly, the dialogue between the two leaders did not seem to be any less rancorous, however perhaps I'm forgetting something. But really the point would be whether or not Oswald would buy into such a scenario if offered.

I believe it was Nagell that said the story the exiles (posing as Castroites) strapped on Oswald was that they were going to give JFK a Xmas present from Castro, and that Lee's participation would earn him the trip to Cuba.

I also seem to recall Veciana saying that Bishop was concerned about whether or not an American could go into the embassy and get themselves a visa for travel to Cuba, and wanted Veciana to check into it.  If Oswald had gotten into Cuba in late September, he wouldn't have been around for JFK's visit in November.

And lastly, I would suggest that Oswald's destination when he left the rooming house was not the Texas theater, since he was actually walking in the wrong direction to do that.

I will speculate that he was headed to a bus stop nearby to go to the airport or headed to the zoo to meet a contact.

 

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/1026+N+Beckley+Ave,+Dallas,+TX+75203/Dallas+Executive+Airport-RBD,+5303+Challenger+Dr,+Dallas,+TX+75237/@32.7167912,-96.8774403,13z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x864e999d1b785c03:0xf4b8e76beb3a162d!2m2!1d-96.8225987!2d32.7558221!1m5!1m1!1s0x864e90f1c4900ce9:0xf9e22a7f31978dfe!2m2!1d-96.8671846!2d32.6806895!3e0 

 

Edited by Matt Allison
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OK, since we are speculating, let's go with Larry Hancock's premise that the JFKA was planned to provoke a war or invasion, or other very serious effort against the Castro regime. 

In most regards, then, JFKA was a CIA rogue action, in that JFK would not sanction such an action against himself.

1. Would the Miami hit-men undertake such an action without higher-up say-so?

2. Would this explain the sudden loss of interest in Cuba after the JFKA? Even Sen. Richard Russell commented publicly, and wonderingly, on the sudden vacuum on Cuba, while everything became Vietnam overnight in 1964. 

So...speculating, the senior ranks of officialdom suspected the purpose of the JFKA, and could not "validate" such an action. A message had to be sent to the perps, that assassinating a US president will not result in a preferred policy.

Well, as I said, speculation....

 

 

 

 

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