Kevin Balch Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 10 hours ago, Joe Bauer said: Heck, take out Oswald in less than 48 hours after JFK and you've eliminated the need to kill too many others. That suggests the focus should be on deaths of those that might know something about Ruby such as Kilgallen rather than dozens with a six-degrees of Kevin Bacon connection to the assassination. Another avenue was Ruby’s legal defense. What better way to permanently silence him than the death penalty? Or making him sound so nutty that no one will take seriously anything he says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted July 31 Author Share Posted July 31 (edited) 1 hour ago, Kevin Balch said: That suggests the focus should be on deaths of those that might know something about Ruby such as Kilgallen rather than dozens with a six-degrees of Kevin Bacon connection to the assassination. Another avenue was Ruby’s legal defense. What better way to permanently silence him than the death penalty? Or making him sound so nutty that no one will take seriously anything he says. The key witnesses had inconvenient information about the assassination ops in a variety of ways. This "six-degrees of separation" claim is simply false. Many of them had been in contact with either Ruby, Oswald, or both. Some were involved in analyzing forensic evidence-- like the FBI techs (and William Sullivan) who died just before their Congressional testimony-- or the Navy AV tech who filmed the fraudulent autopsy at Bethesda. Others were witnesses in Dealey Plaza, like Lee Bowers (and/or the Tippitt murder case.) Edited July 31 by W. Niederhut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Morrow Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 On 7/28/2024 at 5:13 PM, Pat Speer said: Of all the suspicious deaths of the sixties, the one I find most suspicious is Ferrie's. Due mostly to the timing... To be clear, when I was performing a deep dive on the LBJ/RFK rivalry I realized that Ramsey Clark told LBJ about Ferrie, and that Ferrie may have implicated him. And then like four days later Ferrie was dead. It's hard for me to write that one off. Pat, could you provide me the document/source where Ramsey Clark is telling Lyndon Johnson that David Ferrie is implicating LBJ in the JFK assassination? I would find that very useful to have. Is it somehow related to this? Early 1967: Jim Garrison was privately telling people around New Orleans that that the JFK assassination could be “traced back” to Lyndon Johnson or that LBJ could be “found in it someplace.” Source Hale Boggs as told by Attorney General Ramsey Clark to LBJ on Feb. 20, 1967 https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/06/the-assassination-tapes/302964/ David Ferrie's date of death was 2/22/1967. He was age 48. Wikipedia: QUOTE On February 22, 1967, less than a week after the newspaper broke the story of Garrison's investigation, David Ferrie, then his chief suspect, was found dead in his apartment from a brain aneurysm. Garrison suspected that Ferrie had been murdered despite the coroner's report that his death was due to natural causes. UNQUOTE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Clay_Shaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pat Speer Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 6 hours ago, Robert Morrow said: Pat, could you provide me the document/source where Ramsey Clark is telling Lyndon Johnson that David Ferrie is implicating LBJ in the JFK assassination? I would find that very useful to have. Is it somehow related to this? Early 1967: Jim Garrison was privately telling people around New Orleans that that the JFK assassination could be “traced back” to Lyndon Johnson or that LBJ could be “found in it someplace.” Source Hale Boggs as told by Attorney General Ramsey Clark to LBJ on Feb. 20, 1967 https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/06/the-assassination-tapes/302964/ David Ferrie's date of death was 2/22/1967. He was age 48. Wikipedia: QUOTE On February 22, 1967, less than a week after the newspaper broke the story of Garrison's investigation, David Ferrie, then his chief suspect, was found dead in his apartment from a brain aneurysm. Garrison suspected that Ferrie had been murdered despite the coroner's report that his death was due to natural causes. UNQUOTE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Clay_Shaw Yeah, that's it. LBJ is told on the 20th that Garrison is saying it can be traced back to him. LBJ then tells Clark to look into this because he should know what's going on. This indicates an increased awareness in Ferrie, who was reputed to be Garrison's main source. Two days later Ferrie is found dead, a suicide or possible murder made to look like a suicide. But the coroner says it was by natural causes. That Ferrie was central to the LBJ's concerns is proved moreover by the fact Clark calls LBJ back on the 22nd to discuss Ferrie's death. It smells, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 On 7/30/2024 at 9:32 AM, Pat Speer said: 1. Cognitive psychologists and historians do not pretend people's perceptions are a roll of the dice or a turn of a card. They do not estimate "probabilities" of truth based on the number of people who have at one point in their life made a certain claim. Look Pat, everybody knows that the more corroboration there is among witnesses, the more likely it is the corroborators got it right! The only thing my mathematical analysis does is give us the odds of a corroboration of witnesses being right. (Or, conversely, wrong.) Unfortunately for you and your anti-alterationist followers, your preconceived notions and biases have forced you into an illogical corner. You are forced to believe that most the gaping head wound witnesses -- those who corroborate one another-- are wrong! On 7/30/2024 at 9:32 AM, Pat Speer said: 2. Your numbers are skewed. You deliberately exclude the statements of men like Jenkins and Carrico, who would come to claim they were mistaken, and the testimony of men like Clark, who said their recollections were consistent with the official story. My numbers are the most reliable because I choose from each witness their earliest recollections. In contrast to you, who waits for witnesses to change their minds based on (altered) autopsy photos shown to them by Gerald Posner or some other external influence. On 7/30/2024 at 9:32 AM, Pat Speer said: 3. You perhaps inadvertently engage in a bait-and-switch. You use the statements of people stating the wound was high on the back of the head to debunk photos you think show a wound on the top of the head, and then claim their statements support the work of men like Mantik and Horne, who hold that the wound was low on the back of the head. First, I hardly have anything to do with Mantik or Horne or what their theories say. I've never bought or read a book by either one. (Maybe you haven't noticed, but I haven't been engaging in the Horne/HawkeyeWorks debate going on in the other thread.) If I happen to believe some of the same stuff they do, it is only because I and they see a lot of the same evidence. And so it's not surprising that we end up coming up with similar conclusions. As for your bait and switch charge against me, it is nonsense. No two witnesses place the gaping wound in precisely the same place as any other witness, nor give identical sizes. Some variation between witnesses is to be expected, but for some reason you make a big deal about it. As for me, I believe the wound was located and sized at roughly the average of the locations and sizes given by the witnesses. On 7/30/2024 at 9:32 AM, Pat Speer said: 4. You obsessively attack those who agree with me by claiming they are "followers" when, in fact, they have just followed common sense. You are the de facto leader of the anti-alterationists on the forum. They all deserve to be debated/attacked for holding the irrational belief that photos or films wouldn't be altered in a government coverup. It is because of that irrational belief that you guys have painted yourself into the ridiculous corner of believing the vast majority of the wound witnesses mass hallucinated a gaping wound on the back of the head. On 7/30/2024 at 9:32 AM, Pat Speer said: You failed to realize that Horne is on the fringe, that relatively mainstream CTs like Aguilar and Thompson think his theories are mostly nonsense, and that the Fetzer-Mantik-Horne wing holding that everything has been altered by the deep state is currently aligning itself with the Neo-fascists. I think I'm pretty close to mainstream in my JFKA thinking. When I watch JFK: Destiny Betrayed, I don't notice anything I disagree with. I DO notice that Jim DiEugenio agrees with me on the location of the gaping head wound (back of head) and does disagree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Larsen Posted July 31 Share Posted July 31 On 7/30/2024 at 12:45 PM, Kevin Balch said: What is the probability that the cleanup squad could murder 120 of the 1400 witnesses between 1963-1978 and not get caught once? Other than Jack Ruby whose murder of Oswald IS suspicious. Do you know the total number of deaths among the 1400 witnesses between 1963-1978? I ask because there are reliable total death probabilities from the population at large that should be applicable to a population of 1400 witnesses (typically a very good sample size for political polling. I was impressed with the statistical data that you found. You want to use that data to perform statistical predictive analytics. To do what you are trying to do would require a good deal of data collection, careful work, and some experience in statistical analytics. In contrast, my statistical analysis is a simple formula used to calculate the probability of an outcome of repetitive events each having a binomial probability. To do this, all you need to know is the probability of a single event (e.g. 1/2 for a coin toss), how many events there will be, and what the desired outcome will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Balch Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 2 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: I was impressed with the statistical data that you found. You want to use that data to perform statistical predictive analytics. To do what you are trying to do would require a good deal of data collection, careful work, and some experience in statistical analytics. In contrast, my statistical analysis is a simple formula used to calculate the probability of an outcome of repetitive events each having a binomial probability. To do this, all you need to know is the probability of a single event (e.g. 1/2 for a coin toss), how many events there will be, and what the desired outcome will be. Not at all. We can find a bounding case by assuming the clean up squad are very good and have 99% success rate in killing their victim and being undetected in the required surveillance, surreptitious entry, corrupting the local police and forensic examiners as necessary. For 120 victims: 0.99^120 = 0.3 or only 30% of never being caught. Murder clearance rates now are something like 50%. Back in the 1960s they were probably something like 80% or a 20% chance of getting away with it. 0.20^120 = 1.3 X 10 -84 But let’s assume the clean up squad is still much better than average and is 95% successful. 0.95^120 = 0.0021 or 0.2% How many witnesses can be silenced before there is a 50% chance of being caught? 0.95^13 = 0.513, so 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Balch Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 Here’s the Palm Beach County FL report on the death of George DeMorhenschildt. It goes into more detail than what is presented in Hit List. https://www.jfk-assassination.net/death2.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Morrow Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 (edited) 6 hours ago, Pat Speer said: Yeah, that's it. LBJ is told on the 20th that Garrison is saying it can be traced back to him. LBJ then tells Clark to look into this because he should know what's going on. This indicates an increased awareness in Ferrie, who was reputed to be Garrison's main source. Two days later Ferrie is found dead, a suicide or possible murder made to look like a suicide. But the coroner says it was by natural causes. That Ferrie was central to the LBJ's concerns is proved moreover by the fact Clark calls LBJ back on the 22nd to discuss Ferrie's death. It smells, IMO. Do I think LBJ murdered David Ferrie. I have no idea. Doubt it. But I will tell you this: Lyndon Johnson would have zero qualms about murdering anyone anytime anyplace if he felt he needed to. Billie Sol Estes used to say Robert Kennedy came to him in prison and asked him to testify against LBJ and Estes told him Johnson would have him murdered in prison within 24 hours if he agreed to that. Estes, who was represented by LBJ lawyer John Cofer, kept his mouth shut. I am friends with the nephew of Don Reynolds who is writing a book on his uncle. According to a Reynolds family member, J. Edgar Hoover in 1964 called Don Reynolds and told him if you don't leave the country Lyndon Johnson is going to have you killed. Reynolds, whose house was burned down, left the USA for several years. (This will be coming out in a new book on Don Reynolds by Trine Day) Texas Gov. Allan Shivers was convinced that LBJ had murdered a man in prison, Sam Smithwick, in 1952 because Smithwick wrote a letter to Coke Stevenson and said he wanted to tell him about the voter fraud in Jim Wells County that helped LBJ steal the 1948 Democratic Senate nomination. We know the above because LBJ told journalist Ronnie Dugger what Gov. Shivers was telling people. USS Liberty - LBJ set that ship up to be sunk by Israel so the heinous crime could be blamed on Egypt so LBJ would have a pretext to bomb Nasser of Egypt. Billie Sol Estes told Doug Caddy that LBJ would send his personal hit men around the country on military planes so their names would not be on commercial flight manifests. I think David Ferrie died of natural causes, but LBJ would have zero qualms about immediately murdering Ferrie if he thought it was absolutely necessary. I do not think Mac Wallace shot JFK. I think LBJ found some folks in the military and intelligence to murder JFK. One more thing, in Madeleine Brown's book Texas in the Morning there is Chapter 22 which is titled "Missing Person." Madeleine Brown's nanny once saw LBJ go into Madeleine Brown's hotel room as she babysat Madeleine's kids down the hallway. LBJ was enraged about this and told Madeleine to get rid of the nanny whose name was Dale Turner. The next day the nanny Dale Turner did not show up for work and Madeleine Brown never saw her again the rest of her life. Turner was either completely terrified by LBJ's people OR she was murdered. Edited August 1 by Robert Morrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Bauer Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 25 minutes ago, Robert Morrow said: Do I think LBJ murdered David Ferrie. I have no idea. Doubt it. But I will tell you this: Lyndon Johnson would have zero qualms about murdering anyone anytime anyplace if he felt he needed to. Billie Sol Estes used to say Robert Kennedy came to him in prison and asked him to testify against LBJ and Estes told him Johnson would have him murdered in prison within 24 hours if he agreed to that. Estes, who was represented by LBJ lawyer John Cofer, kept his mouth shut. I am friends with the nephew of Don Reynolds who is writing a book on his uncle. According to a Reynolds family member, J. Edgar Hoover in 1964 called Don Reynolds and told him if you don't leave the country Lyndon Johnson is going to have you killed. Reynolds, whose house was burned down, left the USA for several years. (This will be coming out in a new book on Don Reynolds by Trine Day) Texas Gov. Allan Shivers was convinced that LBJ had murdered a man in prison, Sam Smithwick, in 1952 because Smithwick wrote a letter to Coke Stevenson and said he wanted to tell him about the voter fraud in Jim Wells County that helped LBJ steal the 1948 Democratic Senate nomination. We know the above because LBJ told journalist Ronnie Dugger what Gov. Shivers was telling people. USS Liberty - LBJ set that ship up to be sunk by Israel so the heinous crime could be blamed on Egypt so LBJ would have a pretext to bomb Nasser of Egypt. Billie Sol Estes told Doug Caddy that LBJ would send his personal hit men around the country on military planes so their names would not be on commercial flight manifests. I think David Ferrie died of natural causes, but LBJ would have zero qualms about immediately murdering Ferrie if he thought it was absolutely necessary. I do not think Mac Wallace shot JFK. I think LBJ found some folks in the military and intelligence to murder JFK. One more thing, in Madeleine Brown's book Texas in the Morning there is Chapter 22 which is titled "Missing Person." Madeleine Brown's nanny once saw LBJ go into Madeleine Brown's hotel room as she babysat Madeleine's kids down the hallway. LBJ was enraged about this and told Madeleine to get rid of the nanny whose name was Dale Turner. The next day the nanny Dale Turner did not show up for work and Madeleine Brown never saw her again the rest of her life. Turner was either completely terrified by LBJ's people OR she was murdered. Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Bulman Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 1 hour ago, Kevin Balch said: Here’s the Palm Beach County FL report on the death of George DeMorhenschildt. It goes into more detail than what is presented in Hit List. https://www.jfk-assassination.net/death2.txt There it is, plus a belly laugh! First, thanks for this Kevin, I've never read this apparently official version. I had read somewhere that the sound of the house alarm going off is heard on the cassette tape of the soap opera the maid was recording for the homeowner. Someone investigated, went to the local police, found this, other inconsistencies. Who? Where did I read it? Fonzi? Nope, I looked in The Last Investigation. Then I looked for them online. That turned up this great old thread by Dawn Meredith, an attorney from Austin, Texas and a forum member. Who I didn't remember posting in quite some time and wondering if she was ok. I saw her name at the bottom of the first page just a few days ago, looking in. Thanks for hanging with/checking in on us Dawn. The fourth post in. From Trygve in Europe. The video is no longer available, but he mentions Mark Lane talking about it. I'll look more tomorrow or in a day or two. It is a much deeper very interesting thread from 17 years ago, a little dated for some maybe but still relevant. Well worth the full read imho. More on the belly laugh later. O'Lielly is a separate but related story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Morrow Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 6 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said: Look Pat, everybody knows that the more corroboration there is among witnesses, the more likely it is the corroborators got it right! The only thing my mathematical analysis does is give us the odds of a corroboration of witnesses being right. (Or, conversely, wrong.) Unfortunately for you and your anti-alterationist followers, your preconceived notions and biases have forced you into an illogical corner. You are forced to believe that most the gaping head wound witnesses -- those who corroborate one another-- are wrong! My numbers are the most reliable because I choose from each witness their earliest recollections. In contrast to you, who waits for witnesses to change their minds based on (altered) autopsy photos shown to them by Gerald Posner or some other external influence. First, I hardly have anything to do with Mantik or Horne or what their theories say. I've never bought or read a book by either one. (Maybe you haven't noticed, but I haven't been engaging in the Horne/HawkeyeWorks debate going on in the other thread.) If I happen to believe some of the same stuff they do, it is only because I and they see a lot of the same evidence. And so it's not surprising that we end up coming up with similar conclusions. As for your bait and switch charge against me, it is nonsense. No two witnesses place the gaping wound in precisely the same place as any other witness, nor give identical sizes. Some variation between witnesses is to be expected, but for some reason you make a big deal about it. As for me, I believe the wound was located and sized at roughly the average of the locations and sizes given by the witnesses. You are the de facto leader of the anti-alterationists on the forum. They all deserve to be debated/attacked for holding the irrational belief that photos or films wouldn't be altered in a government coverup. It is because of that irrational belief that you guys have painted yourself into the ridiculous corner of believing the vast majority of the wound witnesses mass hallucinated a gaping wound on the back of the head. I think I'm pretty close to mainstream in my JFKA thinking. When I watch JFK: Destiny Betrayed, I don't notice anything I disagree with. I DO notice that Jim DiEugenio agrees with me on the location of the gaping head wound (back of head) and does disagree with you. My *opinion* is that there was a large gaping hole in the lower back of JFK's head. This was at least a blow out hole from a shot from the Grassy Knoll and maybe also a near simultaneous shot from the rear (maybe). I discount the change in opinion of Carrico and Jenkins because Gerald Posner (and whoever else) was playing mind games with them showing them doctored/fabricated/altered/false photos and head X-rays. That is like being lied to. When you have a coup, and the government is involved, and if Lyndon Johnson was involved (and he was) ruthless fabrication of fake evidence and ruthless destruction of real evidence will occur. So I think it is a mistake to believe the changes of opinions of Doctors Carrico and Jenkins. I also do not think there was a "mass hallucination" of witnesses who only dreamed they saw a large gaping hole in the back of JFK's head (witnesses at Parkland and Bethesda and Diana Bowman, the nurse who cleaned up JFK). The probability that all of these different people from different organizations Sibert (FBI), Clint Hill (Secret Service) Diane Bowman (nurser), doctors, x-ray techs, were wrong is slim. It is the weight of numbers like in "Me Too" sex abuse case. If 30 different women who don't know each other all say you are an abusive sex pervert, you probably are. If 25-30 people (not 2 or 3) all say there was a large blow out wound (or even entrance wound) in the lower rear of JFK's head, then there probably was that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Morrow Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 10 minutes ago, Ron Bulman said: There it is, plus a belly laugh! First, thanks for this Kevin, I've never read this apparently official version. I had read somewhere that the sound of the house alarm going off is heard on the cassette tape of the soap opera the maid was recording for the homeowner. Someone investigated, went to the local police, found this, other inconsistencies. Who? Where did I read it? Fonzi? Nope, I looked in The Last Investigation. Then I looked for them online. That turned up this great old thread by Dawn Meredith, an attorney from Austin, Texas and a forum member. Who I didn't remember posting in quite some time and wondering if she was ok. I saw her name at the bottom of the first page just a few days ago, looking in. Thanks for hanging with/checking in on us Dawn. The fourth post in. From Trygve in Europe. The video is no longer available, but he mentions Mark Lane talking about it. I'll look more tomorrow or in a day or two. It is a much deeper very interesting thread from 17 years ago, a little dated for some maybe but still relevant. Well worth the full read imho. More on the belly laugh later. O'Lielly is a separate but related story. Dawn Meredith of Austin, TX (where I live) was the FIRST JFK assassination researcher that I contacted after reading a thread on Education Forum in Spring, 2008. She then gave me a list of the top JFK assassination researchers in the country who I should contact. I called them up and asked them each what 10 books on the JFK assassination I should buy. And then I was off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 17 hours ago, Kevin Balch said: But let’s assume the clean up squad is still much better than average and is 95% successful. Hi Kevin Wouldn't that also be assuming that those responsible for investigating the suspicious deaths were interested in pursuing the investigations? In other words - a 95% probability of getting away with it if there was a normal investigation and a higher probability of success if there was no interest or guidance from above not to pursue investigating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Balch Posted August 1 Share Posted August 1 8 minutes ago, Bill Fite said: Hi Kevin Wouldn't that also be assuming that those responsible for investigating the suspicious deaths were interested in pursuing the investigations? In other words - a 95% probability of getting away with it if there was a normal investigation and a higher probability of success if there was no interest or guidance from above not to pursue investigating. That’s what I meant by corrupting the police and coroners, if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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