Matt Allison Posted Tuesday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:49 AM 51 minutes ago, W. Niederhut said: My dad was a registered Republican, but I think he would have despised Donald Trump. No WWII vet would ever support Trump. Not a single one. They didn't watch their friends die in Europe fighting fascism just to see Trump try to bring it to America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Rigby Posted Tuesday at 10:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:44 AM Opinion US elections 2024 To win, Harris should talk more about working-class needs and less about Trump Dustin Guastella Our polling shows that the best way to defeat Trump is offer a compelling economic platform that puts working families first Tue 22 Oct 2024 11.00 BST https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/22/harris-working-class-voters-poll-election The 2024 campaign has entered the final stretch and, as polls tighten, it seems Kamala Harris plans to lean into attacking Donald Trump as a threat to democracy. Over the past week the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, the Washington Post, the New York Times and even the conservative National Review have all reported or commented on the messaging pivot. In a newly unveiled official campaign ad, a disembodied voice warns gravely that a second Trump term “would be worse. There would be no one to stop his worst instincts. No guard rails.” At a recent rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, Harris reminded her supporters of Project 2025, the “detailed and dangerous plan” that she believes an “increasingly unstable and unhinged” Trump will follow to cement “unchecked power”. She sounded the alarm about the dire threat Trump poses to “your fundamental freedoms” and how in his second term he would be “essentially immune” from oversight. This is hair-raising stuff. And the campaign thinks that menacing warnings like these will motivate some urgency to march to the polls for Harris. The only problem is that voters, especially working-class voters, seem uniquely uninspired by the appeal. The Center for Working-Class Politics (CWCP) recently tested a variety of political messages on voters in Pennsylvania, a key battleground for both campaigns, to determine what kind of rhetoric is working to nudge blue-collar voters toward Harris. In collaboration with the polling firm YouGov, we polled a representative sample of 1,000 eligible voters in Pennsylvania between 24 September and 2 October 2024. We asked respondents to evaluate different political messages that they might hear from Harris and Trump, and to score them on a scale of favorability. In line with our past research, we found that economically focused messages and messages that employed a populist narrative fared best relative to Trump-style messages about Biden’s competence, immigration, corrupt elites, critical race theory, inflation, election integrity and tariffs. No surprise there. Meanwhile, Harris’s messages on abortion and immigration fared worse than any of the economic or populist messages we tested. Yet no message was as unpopular as the one we call the “democratic threat” message. Much like Harris’s recent rhetoric, this message called on voters to “defend our freedom and our democracy” against a would-be dictator in the form of Trump. It named Trump as “a criminal” and “a convicted felon” and warned of his plans to punish his political enemies. Of the seven messages we tested, each relating to a major theme of the Harris campaign, the “democratic threat” message polled dead last. It was the least popular message relative to the average support for Trump’s messages. And it was the least popular message among the working-class constituencies Harris and the Democrats need most. Among blue-collar voters, a group that leans Republican, the democratic threat message was a whopping 14.4 points underwater relative to the average support for Trump’s messages. And among more liberal-leaning service and clerical workers, it was also the least popular message, finishing only 1.6 percentage points ahead of the Trump average. Even among professionals, the most liberal of the bunch and the group that liked the message the best, the message barely outperformed Trump’s messages. The exact opposite is true for the “strong populist” message we tested. This message, which combined progressive economic policy suggestions with a strong condemnation of “billionaires”, “big corporations” and the “politicians in Washington who serve them”, tested best with blue-collar workers, service and clerical workers, and professionals. If we break down the results by party we find much the same story. Republicans – who didn’t prefer any of Harris’s messages over Trump’s messages – preferred the strong populist message the most. And they overwhelmingly rejected the democratic threat message, on average preferring Trump’s messages over this by over 75 points. Among independents – an imperfect proxy for nonpartisan voters – the strong populist message was best received, while the democratic threat message was least favored. Only Democrats strongly preferred the democratic threat message, and even then it was among their least favorite. All of this suggests that the messaging pivot is a big mistake. Why voters aren’t responding to messages like these is anyone’s guess, though the fable of the boy who cried wolf comes to mind. Trump was already president. And while Democrats warned about the danger he posed to democracy, we did actually have an election to get rid of him. Remember, the moral of the fable isn’t that, in the end, there wasn’t a wolf. It’s that no one believed the boy. Moreover, the distaste for the democratic threat message among working people, and the total obliviousness to that distaste among campaign officials, is evidence itself of the huge disconnect between Harris and the working-class voters she desperately needs to win. Worse, every ad or speech spent hectoring about the Trumpian threat is one less opportunity for Harris to focus on her popular economic policies; one less opportunity to lean into a populist “people v plutocrats” narrative that actually does resonate with the working class. If Harris loses, it’ll be because the campaign and the candidate represent a party that is now fundamentally alien to many working people – a party that has given up on mobilizing working people around shared class frustrations and aspirations. A party incapable of communicating a simple, direct, progressive economic policy agenda. A party so beholden to a contradictory mix of interests that, in the effort to appease everyone and offend no one, top strategists have rolled out a vague, unpopular and uninspiring pitch seemingly designed to help them replay the results of the 2016 election. Ironically, if Democrats are keen to defend democracy they would do well to stop talking about it. Instead, they should try to persuade voters on an economic vision that seeks to end offshoring and mass layoffs, revitalize manufacturing, cap prescription drug prices and put working families first. In other words, they should sound less like Democrats and more like populists. Dustin Guastella is a research associate at the Center for Working-Class Politics and the director of operations for Teamsters Local 623 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted Tuesday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:52 PM Good article, Paul. I, absolutely, agree that Kamala Harris has not pushed back adequately on Trump's plutocratic agenda-- i.e., cutting more taxes for his billionaire base and "starving the beastly" working class. Trump has completely bamboozled his white, working-class fans. In reality, he's the billionaire's useful idiot. In her debate with Trump, Harris also let the Orange Bamboozler get away with claiming that he, "created the greatest economy in American history." Like almost everything Trump says, it's bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Gallaway Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:42 PM I also agree with Paul's article. The messaging can be really different depending on the locality, and living in a liberal hotbed, I don't know the typical messaging in the battleground states. But there are populist messages here as well. They often show a clip of Trump talking to a bunch of billionaires and promising he will lower their taxes, and then cutting to typical working people saying "I'm not a billionaire, it's time we give some tax breaks to the middle class and not billionaires." Then there's the Trump criminal,insurrectionist ads, then there's pro Harris ads. I'd say the anti Trump ads are maybe a little over half. But maybe here the primary goal is getting out the vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathaniel Heidenheimer Posted Wednesday at 04:53 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:53 AM I think Harris is not pushing back very hard because it's 61 years after a CIA domestic Coup and the Dr Strangeloves are Democrats now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirk Gallaway Posted Wednesday at 05:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:47 AM 15 minutes ago, Nathaniel Heidenheimer said: I think Harris is not pushing back very hard because it's 61 years after a CIA domestic Coup and the Dr Strangeloves are Democrats now. Pushing back on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliff Varnell Posted Wednesday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:28 PM (edited) On 10/22/2024 at 3:44 AM, Paul Rigby said: Opinion US elections 2024 To win, Harris should talk more about working-class needs and less about Trump Dustin Guastella Our polling shows that the best way to defeat Trump is offer a compelling economic platform that puts working families first Tue 22 Oct 2024 11.00 BST https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/22/harris-working-class-voters-poll-election The 2024 campaign has entered the final stretch and, as polls tighten, it seems Kamala Harris plans to lean into attacking Donald Trump as a threat to democracy. Over the past week the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, the Washington Post, the New York Times and even the conservative National Review have all reported or commented on the messaging pivot. In a newly unveiled official campaign ad, a disembodied voice warns gravely that a second Trump term “would be worse. There would be no one to stop his worst instincts. No guard rails.” At a recent rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, Harris reminded her supporters of Project 2025, the “detailed and dangerous plan” that she believes an “increasingly unstable and unhinged” Trump will follow to cement “unchecked power”. She sounded the alarm about the dire threat Trump poses to “your fundamental freedoms” and how in his second term he would be “essentially immune” from oversight. This is hair-raising stuff. And the campaign thinks that menacing warnings like these will motivate some urgency to march to the polls for Harris. The only problem is that voters, especially working-class voters, seem uniquely uninspired by the appeal. The Center for Working-Class Politics (CWCP) recently tested a variety of political messages on voters in Pennsylvania, a key battleground for both campaigns, to determine what kind of rhetoric is working to nudge blue-collar voters toward Harris. In collaboration with the polling firm YouGov, we polled a representative sample of 1,000 eligible voters in Pennsylvania between 24 September and 2 October 2024. We asked respondents to evaluate different political messages that they might hear from Harris and Trump, and to score them on a scale of favorability. In line with our past research, we found that economically focused messages and messages that employed a populist narrative fared best relative to Trump-style messages about Biden’s competence, immigration, corrupt elites, critical race theory, inflation, election integrity and tariffs. No surprise there. Meanwhile, Harris’s messages on abortion and immigration fared worse than any of the economic or populist messages we tested. Yet no message was as unpopular as the one we call the “democratic threat” message. Much like Harris’s recent rhetoric, this message called on voters to “defend our freedom and our democracy” against a would-be dictator in the form of Trump. It named Trump as “a criminal” and “a convicted felon” and warned of his plans to punish his political enemies. Of the seven messages we tested, each relating to a major theme of the Harris campaign, the “democratic threat” message polled dead last. It was the least popular message relative to the average support for Trump’s messages. And it was the least popular message among the working-class constituencies Harris and the Democrats need most. Among blue-collar voters, a group that leans Republican, the democratic threat message was a whopping 14.4 points underwater relative to the average support for Trump’s messages. And among more liberal-leaning service and clerical workers, it was also the least popular message, finishing only 1.6 percentage points ahead of the Trump average. Even among professionals, the most liberal of the bunch and the group that liked the message the best, the message barely outperformed Trump’s messages. The exact opposite is true for the “strong populist” message we tested. This message, which combined progressive economic policy suggestions with a strong condemnation of “billionaires”, “big corporations” and the “politicians in Washington who serve them”, tested best with blue-collar workers, service and clerical workers, and professionals. If we break down the results by party we find much the same story. Republicans – who didn’t prefer any of Harris’s messages over Trump’s messages – preferred the strong populist message the most. And they overwhelmingly rejected the democratic threat message, on average preferring Trump’s messages over this by over 75 points. Among independents – an imperfect proxy for nonpartisan voters – the strong populist message was best received, while the democratic threat message was least favored. Only Democrats strongly preferred the democratic threat message, and even then it was among their least favorite. All of this suggests that the messaging pivot is a big mistake. Why voters aren’t responding to messages like these is anyone’s guess, though the fable of the boy who cried wolf comes to mind. Trump was already president. And while Democrats warned about the danger he posed to democracy, we did actually have an election to get rid of him. Remember, the moral of the fable isn’t that, in the end, there wasn’t a wolf. It’s that no one believed the boy. Moreover, the distaste for the democratic threat message among working people, and the total obliviousness to that distaste among campaign officials, is evidence itself of the huge disconnect between Harris and the working-class voters she desperately needs to win. I think the poll reflected the disconnect between the corporate media and Trump's stated intent to install autocracy. The Teamster poll ran from September 24 to October 2. Here's the flavor of corporate coverage at that time: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/us/politics/trump-democrats-rhetoric.html Trump Tries to Close Off a Chief Line of Attack: That He’s a Danger to Democracy Donald Trump has tried to link Democrats’ charge that he poses a “threat to democracy” to threats on his life. Meanwhile, he has heightened his own attacks on his rivals. It was the "I know you are but what am I?" defense. Trump enjoyed a mini-surge in the polls. Then on Oct. 13 Trump vowed to sic the US military on "the enemy within" -- those politically opposed to him. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/us/politics/trump-opponents-enemy-within.html Trump Escalates Threats to Political Opponents He Deems the ‘Enemy’ Never before has a presidential nominee openly suggested turning the military on Americans simply because they oppose his candidacy. With voting underway, Donald Trump has turned to dark vows of retribution. Now Trump's autocratic impulses are a major issue. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-prefers-dictator-approach-former-chief-staff-says-2024-10-23/ Trump meets definition of a fascist, his former chief of staff says On 10/22/2024 at 3:44 AM, Paul Rigby said: Worse, every ad or speech spent hectoring about the Trumpian threat is one less opportunity for Harris to focus on her popular economic policies; one less opportunity to lean into a populist “people v plutocrats” narrative that actually does resonate with the working class. Harris has hundreds of millions to spend on messaging -- she can walk and chew gum at the same time. On 10/22/2024 at 3:44 AM, Paul Rigby said: If Harris loses, it’ll be because the campaign and the candidate represent a party that is now fundamentally alien to many working people – a party that has given up on mobilizing working people around shared class frustrations and aspirations. A party incapable of communicating a simple, direct, progressive economic policy agenda. Is that what's happening? Edited Wednesday at 09:31 PM by Cliff Varnell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliff Varnell Posted Wednesday at 09:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:34 PM 16 hours ago, Nathaniel Heidenheimer said: I think Harris is not pushing back very hard because it's 61 years after a CIA domestic Coup and the Dr Strangeloves are Democrats now. What a crock. Trump did everything he could to goad Iran into war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted Wednesday at 09:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:44 PM (edited) 10 minutes ago, Cliff Varnell said: What a crock. Trump did everything he could to goad Iran into war. Not only that, Cliff, but, IMO, Trump could be easily bribed to green-light the bombing of Iran. Trump will do anything for a price. He has NO moral compass. Edited Wednesday at 09:45 PM by W. Niederhut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliff Varnell Posted Wednesday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:47 PM Trump's October mini-surge has played out. He hired Elon Musk to run his get-out-the-vote operation. Musk is better at running a social media platform.<snicker> The Dems have a well-funded, well-oiled ground game. Then there's this: https://gasprices.aaa.com/ With my rose colored glasses on I whistle by the graveyard: Harris keeps all the states Biden won plus Florida and North Carolina. 379 ECV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cliff Varnell Posted Wednesday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:49 PM 4 minutes ago, W. Niederhut said: Not only that, Cliff, but, IMO, Trump could be easily bribed to green-light the bombing of Iran. Trump will do anything for a price. He has NO moral compass. Xi could bribe Trump to stand down for a CCP invasion of Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted Wednesday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:52 PM 1 minute ago, Cliff Varnell said: Xi could bribe Trump to stand down for a CCP invasion of Taiwan. Yep. And Trump would stand down in Ukraine, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted Thursday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:44 PM A reminder that Donald Trump hates America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted yesterday at 06:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:56 PM (edited) Jeff Bezos has just blocked the WaPo editorial board from endorsing Kamala Harris. Democracy dies in darkness, eh? The Washington Post will not endorse a candidate for president - The Washington Post Edited yesterday at 08:38 PM by W. Niederhut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denny Zartman Posted yesterday at 09:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:31 PM I went to the Harris rally here in Georgia yesterday. It was good seeing so many people and so much enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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