The Motorcade Puzzle

[John Butler]

6 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

I disagree John, there is no evidence of Camera car #1 or the Mayors car stopping on Houston Street in the witness testimony or photos and films.  Both Cabell and Wiegman made comments indicating that the cars only stopped once both had reached Elm Street.

At Z180 the Zapruder film shows the Mayors car just about to start the turn from Houston Street to Elm Street.  A mere 6 seconds later Wiegman starts his film at Z295 and we see the Mayors car just passing the TSBD onto Elm Street.  This means that it was travelling continuously at 7-9 MPH in the 6 seconds between Z180 and Z295 to get from A to B on the map.  Therefore there is not the time for any vehicles to stop in the sequence.

Cherry picking data is what people usually do once they fall afoul of the conflicting, contrary events of Dealey Plaza.  Mrs. Dearie Cabell clearly stated where her vehicle stopped.  You are misreading her testimony.  Where you have her she would have to turn to see the TSBD.  She said she was at the top of the hill not further down Elm.  The first shot that she heard probably took place somewhere between Z180 and about Z225.  Many people think that the shot occurred while the p. limo was behind the Stemmons sign.

The position of our car was such that when that first shot rang out, my position

was such that I did not have to turn to look at the building. I was directly

facing it.

 

Mr. Hubert. In other words, your car was still really on Houston?

 

Mrs. Cabell. No ; we were making the turn.

 

Mr. Hubert. Just on the turn?

 

Mrs. Cabell. Just on the turn, which put us at the top of the hill, you see.

Weigman/Couch shows that the Camera Cars were held up on Houston Street for about 30 seconds, 28. or 29 seconds if you follow Chris Davidson. 

If you choose to believe Mrs. Cabell's vehicle stopped in another place then do so.  However, Mrs. Cabell said:

Mrs. Cabell. I heard the shot, and without having to turn my head, I jerked

my head up.

 

Mr. Hubert. Why did you do that?

 

Mrs. Cabell. Because I heard the direction from which the shot came, and I

just jerked my head up.

 

Mr. Hubert. What did you see?

 

Mrs. Cabell. I saw a projection out of one of those windows. Those win-

dows on the sixth floor are in groups of twos.

Weigman clearly said he heard 3 shots while he was on Houston Street.  And, the car was slowing and stopping there.  He hit the pavement on the third shot and ran for the intersection.  If you believe that the third shot occurred at Zapruder 313 then your timing is wrong on Zapruder or Weigman or Darnell/Couch or Weigman and others are false witnesses.

A mere 6 seconds is about the time the Mayor's Car stopped "on the turn" while turning into the intersection.  They were facing the TSBD directly according to Dearie Cabell.  A mere 6-8 seconds is about the time the alleged Oswald shooter fired his weapon from the sixth floor.  A mere 6 seconds changed history forever.

If you are correct the Mayor's car should be making the turn at Zapruder 180.  Frame 180 or frames 180-208 do not show that.  They show the Johnson security vehicle  And, the turn can not be seen after those frames.  This frame, Z295  shows at least one shot was fired according to the magic bullet theory.  The one that struck Kennedy and Connally.  295 -180= 115 frames and about 6.3 seconds.  The Mayor's Car is still facing the TSBD.

 

Zapruder 180 shows the Johnson security vehicle not the Mayor's Car.  The Vice-Presidential vehicle kept its distance from the p. limo and it's security vehicle.  This is Zapruder scene 176 and is just 4 frames prior Z180 and shows the identity of the vehicle making the turn without doubt.  No other vehicle is in sight.  You can not really rely on most of the films taken in Dealey Plaza.  Most have been tampered with.  Can you explain what the arrow points to?  Where is the Mayor's Car?

This is frame Z 165 and it clearly shows which vehicle is making the turn:

It is not significantly different than Z 180 less than a second later.

This scene, Z180, is about where the first shot had occurred or a couple of seconds before it.  The first shot could have missed and the second shot could be the "magic bullet".

Witness statements with all their problems are generally more reliable than any Dealey Plaza photo or film.  Which would be preferred in a court?

Edited November 7, 2019 by John Butler

[Mark Tyler]

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Cherry picking data is what people usually do once they fall afoul of the conflicting, contrary events of Dealey Plaza.  Mrs. Dearie Cabell clearly stated where her vehicle stopped.  You are misreading her testimony.

I have re-read these Cabell quotes several times, including the original testimony here:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/html/WC_Vol7_0247b.htm

However I cannot see where she says the car stopped on Houston Street.  She says the car stopped for a few seconds after the third shot on Elm Street, but nothing else.  If I have missed the quote, please cite the sentence where she said they stopped on Houston Street.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Where you have her she would have to turn to see the TSBD.

Have a look at this frame from the animation at Z210 and the purple triangle shows her view of the TSBD which is straight ahead:

She said:

Mr. HUBERT : Actually, you were facing―
Mrs. CABELL : The building.
Mr. HUBERT : The Texas Depository Building?
Mrs. CABELL : I was actually facing it.
Mr. HUBERT: What was the first thing you noticed of an extraordinary nature, or heard?
Mrs. CABELL: I heard the shot, and without having to turn my head, I jerked my head up.

I interpret this as matching the above animation frame.

Source: Warren Commission Volume 7 Page 486:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/html/WC_Vol7_0247b.htm

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

The first shot that she heard probably took place somewhere between Z180 and about Z225.  Many people think that the shot occurred while the p. limo was behind the Stemmons sign.

I agree with this timeframe.  There was definitely at least one shot in that range, possibly two as some witnesses reported a double bang such as Jean Hill and Gayle Newman (both reported this on the day of the assassination so it is reliable).  We can speculate whether the two noises were echoes from a single shot, or two different gunshots from two gunmen firing within a second or two of each other.  Either of these interpretations seems plausible to me.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Weigman/Couch shows that the Camera Cars were held up on Houston Street for about 30 seconds, 28. or 29 seconds if you follow Chris Davidson. 

Strictly speaking the camera cars were held up on the turn from Houston to Elm, but otherwise I agree that they were held up.  In the animation the delay is about 20 seconds but we cannot be precise so it could have been longer.  Camera Car #1 had to stop because the Mayors car and the Press Pool car stopped, which is when Wiegman jumped out and caught this frame while he was running down Elm Street:

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Weigman clearly said he heard 3 shots while he was on Houston Street.  And, the car was slowing and stopping there.  He hit the pavement on the third shot and ran for the intersection.

I think he heard 2 shots on Houston Street (one before he started filming, and one just after starting), and the third shot 2-3 seconds before the above Wiegman film frame was taken when he started his run at the top of Elm Street.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

If you believe that the third shot occurred at Zapruder 313 then your timing is wrong on Zapruder or Weigman or Darnell/Couch or Weigman and others are false witnesses.

No I don't believe Z313 is the third shot, I believe it is the second shot.  This is confirmed by the witnesses who describe it as the second shot like Zapruder, Sitzman, Bill Newman, and Charles Brehm.  The third shot is 5 seconds later at Z400 when Wiegman is just about out of his car on the turn into Elm Street.

To be clear, based on the witnesses I identify audible shots being fired at:

Z185

Z310

Z400

I don't rule out extra shots fired very quickly around these points, e.g. Z215, Z330, or Z420 because some witnesses may have assumed the two shots were simply the echoes from a single shot.  About a dozen witnesses did mention four or more shots, which is why I remain on the fence regarding more shots and a possible conspiracy.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

A mere 6 seconds is about the time the Mayor's Car stopped "on the turn" while turning into the intersection.  They were facing the TSBD directly according to Dearie Cabell.  A mere 6-8 seconds is about the time the alleged Oswald shooter fired his weapon from the sixth floor.  A mere 6 seconds changed history forever.

The 6 seconds is the time between positions recorded in the films, so I said "merely" because its not enough time to stop the car, wait a few seconds, restart it, and then travel the 70 feet or so between the points on the turn from Houston to Elm.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

If you are correct the Mayor's car should be making the turn at Zapruder 180.  Frame 180 or frames 180-208 do not show that.  They show the Johnson security vehicle  And, the turn can not be seen after those frames.  This frame, Z295  shows at least one shot was fired according to the magic bullet theory.  The one that struck Kennedy and Connally.  295 -180= 115 frames and about 6.3 seconds.  The Mayor's Car is still facing the TSBD.

Just for context, here is the Mayors car and the following National Press Pool car on Houston Street as depicted in a Hughes frame, circa 14 seconds before the fatal shot:

At about Z133, or 10 seconds before the fatal shot Hughes catches the two cars again:

Notice the VP SS follow up turning in the background as visible in Z133 behind the crowd which places the wall in line with the turning point on Houston Street:

The Mayors car at Z180 (7 seconds before the fatal shot) is hard to see because it is mostly concealed by the crowd.  The front left wheel becomes visible very briefly.  Here is the gap between the spectators at Z176:

Here is the front of the black wheel arch area coming into view in Z179:

Lastly here is the hub cap in Z180, along with the black tyre (or tire if you prefer the US spelling!):

The Z180 sighting is somewhat hard to see, but is proven to be correct due to the National Press Pool car being visible to the right of the tall pillar in Z193:

The Mayors car is not visible in the Elm Street as we both agree (and as seen in the above image), but it must be in front of the Press Pool car.  Therefore the wheel we see behind the crowd at Z180 must be the Mayors car by logical deduction (it can't be any other vehicle).  The animation proves this is correct as the vehicle is travelling a relatively constant 8-9 MPH at this time.  Everything fits perfectly between Z180 and Z295 as the car turns the corner in those 6 seconds with no time to stop, then: Wiegman starts his filming; the second fatal shot is fired; the Mayors car continues for a fews seconds onto Elm Street before stopping when the third shot is fired.

Here is the first clear Wiegman frame showing the two cars which I calculate to be less than a second before the fatal shot was fired:

The Mayors car at this point is at the beginning of Elm Street near the traffic lights, and about 5 seconds later stops due to the chaos ahead in the aftermath of the fatal shot.  This Wiegman frame is clear enough to even see the occupants of the Mayors car!

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Can you explain what the arrow points to?  Where is the Mayor's Car?

This is frame Z 165 and it clearly shows which vehicle is making the turn:

It is not significantly different than Z 180 less than a second later.

The red arrow seems to be pointing to where the low wall meets the tall concrete block.  This looks to be frame Z176 so the Mayors car is still hidden behind the crowd and the wall with the holes at the end of the reflecting pool.

On 11/7/2019 at 1:34 AM, John Butler said:

Witness statements with all their problems are generally more reliable than any Dealey Plaza photo or film.  Which would be preferred in a court?

The witnesses are hugely important, but sadly too many researchers discard their evidence.  I think the correct approach is to exhaustively go through each statement and look for useful information.  The best example of this is Pat Speer's work in chapters 5-8 of his online book:

http://www.patspeer.com/

The great thing about Pat's work is that you can compare and contrast the earliest statements with the later statements which sadly shows many witnesses change their views over time.  What I have tried to do with my work is focus on the earliest possible statements to avoid this problem (preferably taken on the day in written statements or TV interviews).

Sadly Wiegman didn't give a statement until many years after the event, but his story is quite unique: he was running along Elm Street, he heard a shot fired, and he felt it on his face.  The timing of this is supported by the driver of the Mayors car who said he had just stopped when the final shot was fired, and also Lee Bowers who saw the Limo emerge from behind the Pergola around the time of the final shot.  About a dozen or so witnesses are also adamant that there was at least one shot after the fatal head shot.

Therefore I conclude the final shot was fired at circa Z400.  Its an unpopular view in the research community, but it does seem to explain the witness testimony, including the James Tague injury.

If readers need more info, have a look at the technical details with witness statements, etc in chapter 6 of my handbook:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

[John Butler]

Mark said:

"However I cannot see where she says the car stopped on Houston Street.  She says the car stopped for a few seconds after the third shot on Elm Street, but nothing else.  If I have missed the quote, please cite the sentence where she said they stopped on Houston Street."

I did not say the Mayor's Car stopped on Houston Street.  I gave you her testimony which says she stopped in the turn on Elm Street.  And, it was on the first shot not the third.  She clearly says the "first shot rang out".  And she clearly says "we were making the turn" and was at the "top of the hill".  Her vehicle was not further down Elm as you have place it.

Congressman Roberts was sitting just as this lady is now, and turned the

same way. I was turned facing him. We were looking directly at each other,

The position of our car was such that when that first shot rang out, my position

was such that I did not have to turn to look at the building. I was directly

facing it.

 

Mr. Hubert. In other words, your car was still really on Houston?

 

Mrs. Cabell. No ; we were making the turn.

 

Mr. Hubert. Just on the turn?

 

Mrs. Cabell. Just on the turn, which put us at the top of the hill, you see.

[John Butler]

Mark,

This is not the frame I objected to:

This is the frame:

I have no objections to the Z210 frame.  Perhaps, the Mayor's Car could be just a few feet further into Elm Street.

[John Butler]

Mark said,

Just for context, here is the Mayors car and the following National Press Pool car on Houston Street as depicted in a Hughes frame, circa 14 seconds before the fatal shot:

The Zapruder Gap is about 15 seconds in length.  I think it is longer and could go up to 22 seconds, but David Josephs has the best calculation on that at about 14 or 15 seconds. 

You show the VP car and the VP security car still on Houston.  They are followed by the Mayor's Car and the National Press Car.  To get down to Z 313 for the fatal shot it is a longer period than 14 seconds.  That is if you take the Zapruder film as gospel. 

OBTW, just to show how witness testimony differs.  Tony Glover said this is where she saw the president's head explode.  That would be the fatal shot.  There are over 50 witnesses that said shooting occurred in front of the TSBD when the president made the turn onto Elm and passed by the TSBD.

Zapruder 133 shows the p. limo at about 50 feet from the Stemmons sign and at the southwest corner of the TSBD.  This is about 9.8 or 10 seconds from the fatal head shot according to Zapruder.    Z 313- Z 133 - 180 frames by 18.3 and you have 9.8 seconds.  Add about 14 seconds for the Gap, 10 seconds to the fatal shooting, and whatever time the motorcade is still on Houston, perhaps just a few seconds, and add the time the Mayor's Car is stopped in the turn, 6 to 8 seconds, and you have what?  14.5 seconds for the Gap, 10 seconds from Z 133 to Z 313, 6 to 8 seconds for the Mayors Car to stop and hear the first shot you have a period of about 30+ seconds.  This would be Zapruder timing plus Dearie's effort to say what was needed for the cover up.  Other people say other things.  And, this is the reason I do not trust the Zapruder film.   

 

[John Butler]

Mark said,

"Here is the first clear Wiegman frame showing the two cars which I calculate to be less than a second before the fatal shot was fired:"

"The Mayors car at this point is at the beginning of Elm Street near the traffic lights, and about 5 seconds later stops due to the chaos ahead in the aftermath of the fatal shot.  This Wiegman frame is clear enough to even see the occupants of the Mayors car!"

This scene is from the Weigman film and is showing the vehicles in motion from the stop in the turn on Elm Street.  This scene is after the stop when the vehicles are moving after Weigman gets to the intersection.  It is a shame we don't have an earlier scene where we can tell who was directing traffic.

"Here is the first clear Wiegman frame showing the two cars which I calculate to be less than a second before the fatal shot was fired"  This is not what Mrs. Cabell said.  To use this position and later for the stop completely ignores what Mrs. Cabell said.

It doesn't make any sense for me to point this out again and again.  Mark has his way of looking at things and it is his simulation.  He will have to stand behind whatever he has his simulation doing.

 

 

 

[John Butler]

Mark said,

"Lastly here is the hub cap in Z180, along with the black tyre (or tire if you prefer the US spelling!):"

Any of the images in this series showing vehicles, tires, or hub caps are to blurry to say conclusively that is what is being seen.  It could equally be the payment or if black the shadow of someone.  To blurry to say anything.

[John Butler]

After Mark's latest presentation, I have nothing more to say about his simulation.

[Chris Davidson]

On 10/29/2019 at 12:28 AM, Chris Davidson said:

Take the 1.475 sec difference and add it to my sync of 21.69 sec.

1.475 + 21.69 = 23.165sec.

Now subtract that total from 26.83 sec.

26.83 - 23.165 = 3.665sec.

Once again, multiply 3.665 sec x 18.3fps = 67.06 frames

Once again, subtract from Z313

Z313- 67 = Z246 = Myers placement for the Wiegman film start.

Pretend we added that 1.475sec to the Bell gap.

 

Working backwards some more, let's move Myers back to Z133:

246-133 = 113

113/24 = 4.7sec (close enough, you get the picture)

113/18.3 = 6.174

6.174 - 4.7 = 1.474sec

That's why I said pretend in adding the time to the Bell gap, way after the fact.

Does anyone see the difference in making this sync occur?

Think in terms of frame rates if you missed it.

 

 

 

 

[Mark Tyler]

3 hours ago, John Butler said:

She clearly says the "first shot rang out".  And she clearly says "we were making the turn" and was at the "top of the hill".

I agree with this John: she hears the shot, looks up, and sees the gun in the window while the car is making the turn from Houston to Elm Street during the 2-3 seconds Z180-Z224.

3 hours ago, John Butler said:

I did not say the Mayor's Car stopped on Houston Street.

Thanks for clarifying this, I now understand what you mean.  Further in her interview she said:

"It was in just a fleeting second that I jerked my head up and I saw something in that window, and I turned around to say to Earle, “Earle, it is a shot”, and before I got the words out, just as I got the words out, he said, “Oh, no; it must have been a-” the second two shots rang out.  After that, there is a certain amount of confusion in my mind, I was acutely aware of the odor of gunpowder. I was aware that the motorcade stopped dead still. There was no question about that."

Just for emphasis she said in order: "the second two shots rang out" and "the motorcade stopped dead still".  I have interpreted this as meaning the Mayors car stopped after the third shot.  Did you interpret this as meaning after the first shot?

Source: Warren Commission Volume 7 pages 486-487:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh7/pdf/WH7_MrsEarleCabell.pdf

Just for context this is what the driver of the car (Milton Wright) said this on November 28, 1963:

"The car I was driving had just turned onto Elm Street and approximately 30 feet from the intersection when I heard the first shot.  When the second shot was fired I noticed a number of people running away from the motorcade and I saw several Dallas motorcycle policemen had their guns drawn. Then the motorcade speeded up and we went toward the hospital."

Source: Warren Commission Volume 18 Page 802:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh18/html/WH_Vol18_0408b.htm

From a letter written in 1998 (Source: Vincent  Palamara "JFK:  The  Medical  Evidence  Reference") Milton Wright adds some info about the third and final shot:

"As we were turning in front of the book depository, the first shot was fired.  When the second shot was fired I believed that it came from the book building.  I stopped and was looking at the building when the third shot was fired."

Here is the online reference:

http://www.patspeer.com/chapter6:piecesontheroad

My interpretation of the above witness statements is that the car stopped just once on Elm Street, just past the TSBD, but not in front of it.  Naturally I am happy to be persuaded otherwise if I have overlooked anything.

[Mark Tyler]

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

Zapruder 133 shows the p. limo at about 50 feet from the Stemmons sign and at the southwest corner of the TSBD.  This is about 9.8 or 10 seconds from the fatal head shot according to Zapruder.    Z 313- Z 133 - 180 frames by 18.3 and you have 9.8 seconds.  Add about 14 seconds for the Gap, 10 seconds to the fatal shooting, and whatever time the motorcade is still on Houston, perhaps just a few seconds, and add the time the Mayor's Car is stopped in the turn, 6 to 8 seconds, and you have what?  14.5 seconds for the Gap, 10 seconds from Z 133 to Z 313, 6 to 8 seconds for the Mayors Car to stop and hear the first shot you have a period of about 30+ seconds.  This would be Zapruder timing plus Dearie's effort to say what was needed for the cover up.  Other people say other things.  And, this is the reason I do not trust the Zapruder film.   

Thanks for explaining why you don't trust the Zapruder film.

Part of the purpose of me assuming that the Zapruder film is correct, is that it may reveal inconsistencies in the animation.  If that happens I will be very happy to say that I too do not trust that film.  My work hasn't yet revealed any inconsistencies other than the Wiegman film timing issues (which could have a fairly benign frame rate explanation).  Time will tell whether my theory regarding frame rates is correct or not.  The jury is out as they say!

[Mark Tyler]

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

It doesn't make any sense for me to point this out again and again.  Mark has his way of looking at things and it is his simulation.  He will have to stand behind whatever he has his simulation doing.

The purpose of the animation is to get as close to the facts as possible, and see where that leads us.  If anyone points out errors I will correct them without fear or favour, which is why I am versioning the videos to show that its work in progress.  Its an open ended project with no singular pre-conceived destination: I welcome assistance from anyone, whatever their views.

[Mark Tyler]

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

Any of the images in this series showing vehicles, tires, or hub caps are to blurry to say conclusively that is what is being seen.  It could equally be the payment or if black the shadow of someone.  To blurry to say anything.

If these frames were taken in isolation I would agree with you John.  However, the point I was making was that the Mayors car will need to be within a few feet of this point as there is a big gap between it and the VP SS follow up car ahead, and the Press Pool car behind was level with the tall concrete pillar as per Z193:

In other words, the Mayors car was probably within 10 feet of the edge of the end wall of the reflecting pool and the sighting of the front wheel at exactly Z180 is merely pinpointing this more accurately in space and time.  The mathematics in the animation suggests this is a good estimate as the speed of the car is relatively consistent.

[Mark Tyler]

2 hours ago, John Butler said:

After Mark's latest presentation, I have nothing more to say about his simulation.

Fair enough John, I understand.  Thanks for helping out and enabling me to make the animation more consistent with the documented facts (e.g. the Pilot Car), and making other useful suggestions too.

[Mark Tyler]

2 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Working backwards some more, let's move Myers back to Z133:

246-133 = 113

113/24 = 4.7sec (close enough, you get the picture)

113/18.3 = 6.174

6.174 - 4.7 = 1.474sec

That's why I said pretend in adding the time to the Bell gap, way after the fact.

Does anyone see the difference in making this sync occur?

Think in terms of frame rates if you missed it.

By doing 113/24 FPS, are you saying that the true Zapruder frame rate is 24 FPS?