A framework for analyzing JFKA conspiracy theories (really!)

[James DiEugenio]

Larry:

You know that Armas was killed by an assassin who then shot himself within minutes after being chased by the Armas guards.

Can you explain how you know Marcello arranged this?  And why?

I hope Waldron is not your source.

[Lawrence Schnapf]

I believe the account was from All American Mafioso but I read it awhile ago so could be another source. My recollection is that  Armas got into trouble because he authorized some raids on a casino owned by military and mob types. The assassin was supposedly found dead by suicide and said to be a communist. My recollection is that this account was dismissed by locals . This was  supposedly a model to use for Oswald. Roselli was reportedly the one who arranged for the hit.    

[Lawrence Schnapf]

Hi Jim- I'm just saying that i found his responses underwhelming. After listening to his presentation on Jeff Morley's podcast, i had alot of questions for him. Of course, i was pressing him on specific issues and perhaps he felt uncomfortable because he did not know me. I was trying to learn from him if he suspected Oswald had been formally trained in Russian (i.e., by the US Government) considering he learned to speak a very difficult language in such a short time and especially given his Dyslexia. I was particularly disappointed when Ernst declined to address the Mexico City issue. He seemed incapable of acknowledging the possibility that his friend was impersonated or that he could be unwillingly manipulated as this would undermine his own account of oswald.  I just reporting my reaction to our exchange. It caused me to doubt parts of his story.   and I agree with you about Gregory. He is just trying to sell a book. It should be placed in the fiction section.        

[Greg Doudna]

4 hours ago, Lawrence Schnapf said:

Hi Jim- I'm just saying that i found his responses underwhelming. After listening to his presentation on Jeff Morley's podcast, i had alot of questions for him. Of course, i was pressing him on specific issues and perhaps he felt uncomfortable because he did not know me. I was trying to learn from him if he suspected Oswald had been formally trained in Russian (i.e., by the US Government) considering he learned to speak a very difficult language in such a short time and especially given his Dyslexia. I was particularly disappointed when Ernst declined to address the Mexico City issue. He seemed incapable of acknowledging the possibility that his friend was impersonated or that he could be unwillingly manipulated as this would undermine his own account of oswald.  I just reporting my reaction to our exchange. It caused me to doubt parts of his story.   and I agree with you about Gregory. He is just trying to sell a book. It should be placed in the fiction section.        

It seems a defensible position that he does not venture into areas of which he does not have knowledge, and it does not impugn the credibility of what he does write from his knowledge. 

I have a favorable impression of Titovets from his book. I am struck by now many individuals who knew Oswald well have gone to the mat in the face of prevailing public opinion after the assassination in saying the assassin Oswald is not the Oswald they knew: thinking specifically of Titovets, Buell Wesley Frazier, and DeMohrenschildt in his posthumously published I'm a Patsy. I am struck by finding nothing assassination-related or obviously outlandish or "crazy" in Oswald's political writings and personal papers. There are no conspiracy theories there, its all reasonable sober analysis, however unsophisticated from a working-class man without formal education. I am struck by no language in his writings of calling for violence, no tones of deep personal grievance. Not a perfect man, a working-class man who slapped his wife around a bit in a tumultuous marriage marked by argument and lack of money as in millions of working-class homes in America every night. But was he really guilty of attempt to murder Walker, and murder of Kennedy and Tippit, or was this an Innocence Project case par excellence if the full truth were known. These individual voices--none of whom had to have done this, easier to lay low and not to have done so--Frazier, DeMohrenschildt, and Titovets--are a dissonant note in the acceptable narrative of Oswald. 

[Guest]

On 1/30/2023 at 8:07 PM, Charles Blackmon said:

Too late Ben Lance the Firearm Specialist has already hit-and-run lol

 

On 1/30/2023 at 7:59 PM, Benjamin Cole said:

LP--

You are wrong on this score. Even today, gun enthusiasts will tell you "cheap ammo" will smoke. The Egyptian brand was known for being smokey a few years back. I do not know if this is still the case. 

That said, snub-nose .38s fire ammo that is often "hand packed" by enthusiasts. 

When hand-packing, all varieties of gunpowder can be used, including smokey powder. 

Someone could have hand-packed ammo for a snub-nose .38 on 11/22, and fired a diversionary shot from the GK area. 

Dallas Police Office Joe Hill, a veteran, was there and smelled gunsmoke. 

It is not accurate to assume that modern firearms will not smoke when fired. Also if there is lube in the barrel, that will tend to smoke. Short-barrel weapons will smoke more than long-barrel weapons. 

Hi

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lance Payette

[Guest]

On 1/30/2023 at 9:23 PM, Lawrence Schnapf said:

First- the Marcello tapes have been sealed. Instead of relying on DOJ employees assertions of what Marcello did or did not say, we have asked in our lawsuit to have NARA ask DOJ to arrange to have the tapes unsealed so we can hear what he actually said and how he said it which can be as important. 

With respect to your comment, obviously the mob did not have to get oswald into USSR or otherwise control his movements. Marcello and Costello had Hoover by the short-hairs since he used he was given tips on fixed horse races that he bet on. Hoover actually called off the New Orleans FBI office when it started sniffing around Marcello's associated in December 1963. 

Blakely was wrong when he told Tony that the mob did not go after politicians. Marcello assassinated the president of a latin american country and used a patsy who I believe was killed in the palace. He also had the incoming attorney general of Mississippi -both in the 1950s. Earlier, a Chicago mayor was killed by the mob.

And The mob also didnt have to worry about any documents. Marcello and others did not put things in writing. 

Have you read John Davis' books "Mafia Kingfish" and the "Kennedy Contract"?  They are probably the best books on this topic.

Hi

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lance Payette

[Guest]

On 1/31/2023 at 12:10 PM, Ron Ege said:

In an earlier post, I do think Ben did make a point:

"I sure hope the Mob did not have enough pull to direct LHO to Russia, then New Orleans, Mexico City to Dallas, and then suffocate real investigations into the JFKA three times--the WC, Garrison and the HSCA. And to prevent release of docs to this day.

I inferred from Ben's input taht the more likely entity with that much "pull" would, logically, be the CIA. 

The Mafia would have no JFKA "records", but the CIA, still has, 'aplenty - retained under the guise of "national security". 

Would we be privy to ALL those records, I would agree that even then, they perhaps, would still fail to provide a provable Oswald "articulated motive".  But just maybe, after thorough analyses/investigations of all of them, provide additional information to assist in being able to proffer a "derived Oswald motive" much closer to an actual much more desirable "articulated" motive- which could turn out to be the beginning of finally being able, to conclude without question, as to who was the "real" LHO.

Just release ALL the records - and maybe, no more controversy.

Hi

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lance Payette

[Ron Ege]

6 minutes ago, Lance Payette said:

The Mafia had the best of all possible motives: Money, money, money. The Cuban resorts and casinos were goldmines. And, of course, we have the "RFK is a bit of a nuisance" angle as well. Kill JFK and point the finger at a pro-Castro patsy and lots of good things were likely to happen from a Mafia perspective.

Killing was business as usual for the Mafia. If they needed a serious assassin or two, pros were already on the payroll. The Mafia code was sacrosanct. Loyalty and confidentiality could be assumed. On something like a Presidential assassination ordered by Marcello, perhaps no more than five of the most trusted confidantes need have any knowledge whatsoever. The conspiracy need not have been hatched more than a short time before the assassination, with Oswald not designated the patsy until after he began working at the TSBD.

I'm not saying this is what I occurred - I doubt it was - but it's far more plausible than grand CIA-based conspiracies. Run those through my plausibility matrix and they pretty much go poof. This is why I don't believe elaborate, CIA-based theories are about the JFKA at all. They are about a Deep State political ideology that is hellbent to make the JFKA one of the Rosetta Stones of that ideology. The very fact that a Mafia-based theory receives so little attention tells you this is because the CIA-did-it crowd would be as unhappy if the Mafia explanation were true as if the Lone Nut explanation were true.

My guess is that when all the documents are released, the remaining ones will tell us precisely nothing new about the JFKA. My guess is that we'll merely see that intelligence agencies like the CIA are obsessive about protecting information we mortals can't understand why they thought it was important to protect at all. If there actually were some Dark, Documented Secret about CIA involvement in the JFKA, it strikes me as extremely naïve to think it survived more than a month after 11-22-63 and is still being guarded ten generations of CIA directors and employees later. 

Lance, thanks - understand.

Don't disagree that any record that may have indubitably incriminated the CIA (and/or any of their, just maybe, still unidentified "partners"), would've been intentionally destroyed, forthwith.  

So, what is the harm in releasing all the records, just for posterity's sake, if nothing else?

I know, CIA paranoia, for sure.

It seems the implication of it not doing so, is, "Nothing to see here folks; move along" - which tends to make the agency suspect.

So, so much JFKA controversy still, some sixty years later.

If Oswald WAS the lone assassin, it seems that the "all the dots" would've been long ago connected, conclusively, in fairly short order. 

The Oswald conspiratorial (maybe only six to ten conspirators required) option's dots' connection - whether LHO was involved, knowingly or unknowingly, e.g., duped into a false flag op as some have suggested, may have taken a little longer to unravel.

Whichever one is the truth, appears to remain elusive.  And why is that? 

Understand all the 60 years of "muddying" of the story" that has occurred, purposely or not, by so, so many (insert any entity(s) and or person(s), here). 

Still, I cannot help but suspect that the controversy continues, just perhaps of course, due to the still yet unsolved need by some unidentified entity(s) desire "to protect the guilty".

I don't subscribe to a "Deep State".   But I do think, "never say never."

Just leaving open the option, perhaps, of the JFKA being the result of a tightly knitted conspiracy, rogue or official, LHO a participant or not, involving no more than a dozen or less "in the know", with only a couple surviving the post assassination "clean-up", who did not ever "spill the beans".

I am sure there are more than a few here who were in government service, maybe for years or even decades, with access to Top Secret intelligence who have never breathed a word and never will.

Lance, I'm not necessarily, "agin ya", or "fer ya".  Appreciate yours, as well as everyone's input.

 

 

 

    

 

[Pat Speer]

2 hours ago, Lance Payette said:

The Mafia had the best of all possible motives: Money, money, money. The Cuban resorts and casinos were goldmines. And, of course, we have the "RFK is a bit of a nuisance" angle as well. Kill JFK and point the finger at a pro-Castro patsy and lots of good things were likely to happen from a Mafia perspective.

Killing was business as usual for the Mafia. If they needed a serious assassin or two, pros were already on the payroll. The Mafia code was sacrosanct. Loyalty and confidentiality could be assumed. On something like a Presidential assassination ordered by Marcello, perhaps no more than five of the most trusted confidantes need have any knowledge whatsoever. The conspiracy need not have been hatched more than a short time before the assassination, with Oswald not designated the patsy until after he began working at the TSBD.

I'm not saying this is what I occurred - I doubt it was - but it's far more plausible than grand CIA-based conspiracies. Run those through my plausibility matrix and they pretty much go poof. This is why I don't believe elaborate, CIA-based theories are about the JFKA at all. They are about a Deep State political ideology that is hellbent to make the JFKA one of the Rosetta Stones of that ideology. The very fact that a Mafia-based theory receives so little attention tells you this is because the CIA-did-it crowd would be as unhappy if the Mafia explanation were true as if the Lone Nut explanation were true.

My guess is that when all the documents are released, the remaining ones will tell us precisely nothing new about the JFKA. My guess is that we'll merely see that intelligence agencies like the CIA are obsessive about protecting information we mortals can't understand why they thought it was important to protect at all. If there actually were some Dark, Documented Secret about CIA involvement in the JFKA, it strikes me as extremely naïve to think it survived more than a month after 11-22-63 and is still being guarded ten generations of CIA directors and employees later. 

We're not far apart on this, Lance. To me, the corruption of our institutions over money: the mob killed JFK--and LBJ and Hoover were reluctant to investigate due to their own connections to the mob--is just as likely as the CIA did it angle, and even more troubling. The CIA did it angle has people killing JFK over ideological differences--the bad guy is thus extremism in high places. But the mob did it angle has people killing JFK over money, and the bad guy is greed and corruption. 

The extremists in high places can be removed and will eventually die off. But corruption? It appears that that is here to stay--seeing as some wise scholars ruled that stuffing money into the PACs of grifting politicians is "speech.".

 

Edited February 1, 2023 by Pat Speer

[Bill Brown]

On 1/29/2023 at 5:49 PM, Michaleen Kilroy said:

The railroad men’s stories refute any of the above for me. And the fact the WC/FBI ignored them and/or revised their accounts is all I need to know what the USG was capable of in covering up the facts in this case.

 

And a news photographer caught the smoke on film so many of the railroad men had mentioned.

Game, set, match on this evidence alone confirming conspiracy.

 

That's not smoke seen in the black and white film frame.  The area circled is about forty feet from the fence atop the knoll.  It's foolish to believe that a ball of smoke wouldn't have dissipated by this point.  Also, there are color photos taken during the aftermath in Dealey Plaza which show a discoloration in the leaves in that spot on the tree (either from sunlight hitting only a portion of the tree or the leaves were a different color in that part of the tree than were other leaves).

 

[Bill Brown]

On 1/30/2023 at 11:52 AM, Andrej Stancak said:

Several of Lance's points are useful and may stimulate an interesting debate. However, the onus is on the defendants of the official version as outlined in the Warren Commission report to prove unequivocally that Oswald killed the President including explaining in credible fashion his motives for his alleged crime. This has not been accomplished thus far. Even such a seemingly simple thing as Lee Oswald's whereabouts from 12noon till he left the building has not been explained using persuasive evidence. 

I may try to follow Lance's points in the future; for now I can only apologise for not giving it a try as I do not have enough time and focus at the moment to elaborate a succint account.

OSWALD'S MOTIVE

Oswald's motive for shooting at General Walker was the same as he had for assassinating the President. Marxism and Cuba. Oswald wanted the United States Government to keep it's hands off of Cuba.

Oswald told Capt. Will Fritz that he was a Marxist, that he belonged to the Fair Play For Cuba organization and that he was in favor of Fidel Castro's revolution.

Before the revolution, Castro, with his Marxist beliefs, condemned social and economic inequality in Cuba. He adopted the Marxist view that meaningful political change could only be brought about by proletariat revolution.

While Castro was imprisoned for the failed attack on the Moncada Barracks in Cuba, his wife took employment with the Ministry of the Interior. Castro was enraged and insulted. His Marxist beliefs were so strong that filed for divorce. Mirta (Castro's wife) took custody of their son Fidelito. The thought of his son growing up in a bourgeois environment further enraged Castro.

Oswald agreed strongly with the Marxist beliefs of Castro.

During the revolution, the U.S. Government feared that Castro was a socialist.

In early January of 1959, Batista was overthrown by the rebels and he fled.

The revolution was a crucial turning point in relations between the U.S. and Cuba. Originally, the U.S. government was willing to recognize Castro's new government. However, the U.S. government would eventually fear that Communist insurgencies would spread through Latin America, as they had in Southeast Asia.

On March 5, 1963, Major General Edwin Walker gave a speech where he called on the White House to "liquidate the (communist) scourge that has descended upon the island of Cuba." Walker was obviously referring to Fidel Castro. Oswald ordered his rifle seven days later.

============

Captain Fritz told the Warren Commission:

"I got the impression that he was doing it because of his feeling about the Castro revolution, and I think that he felt, he had a lot of feeling about that revolution.

I think that was the reason. I noticed another thing. I noticed a little before when Walker was shot, he had come out with some statements about Castro and about Cuba and a lot of things and if you will remember the President had some stories a few weeks before his death about Cuba and about Castro and some things, and I wondered if that didn't have some bearing.

I have no way of knowing that other than just watching him and talking to him. I think it was his feeling about his belief in being a Marxist, he told me he had debated in New Orleans, and that he tried to get converts to this Fair Play for Cuba organization, so I think that was his motive. I think he was doing it because of that."

============

The image below is from the

Wichita Falls Record News

March 7, 1963

(Image courtesy of Dale Myers)

 

[Michaleen Kilroy]

14 hours ago, Ron Ege said:

My guess is that we'll merely see that intelligence agencies like the CIA are obsessive about protecting information we mortals can't understand why they thought it was important to protect at all.

 
Quite the ‘guess’ by Lance.

Like the files of the DRE case officer in the time of LHO who committed a felony hiding his material background to the HSCA?

Was Lance transported from 1964? Can’t explain the blind faith in the intel agencies otherwise.

Edited February 2, 2023 by Michaleen Kilroy

[Benjamin Cole]

9 hours ago, Lance Payette said:

Sorry I'm not obsessive-compulsive enough to haunt a JFKA forum 25 hours a day, but I actually have a life.

I didn't just fall off the turnip truck. For three years, I had a full-tilt Rock Chucker reloading set-up in my home. I hand-loaded perhaps thousands of rounds, both handgun and rifle, because I was living on a remote ranch where I could literally shoot off my front porch. I owned every handgun from a .22 to a .44 magnum, perhaps 15 at the same time, and rifles from a .22 to a 30.06, perhaps five at the same time.

In all my shooting, I've NEVER seen a discernible "puff of smoke" as described by S, M. Holland, who saw it "6 to 8 feet" in the air from his position in the middle of the overpass. He "immediately" ran to the location and saw no one.

I've NEVER heard of anyone using "cheap, smoky" gunpowder in reloading. I've NEVER even heard of modern gunpowder that smokes, apart from black powder used in replica historical firearms (which I've also owned). See generally https://elawtalk.com/types-of-gunpowder/. When you go to a gun shop to buy a can of gunpowder, they DO NOT ask if you'd like the cheap, smoky stuff for $3 less.

Again, in CTers' desperation to rehabilitate any and every CT factoid instead of just admitting defeat and moving on, they have the conspirators being geniuses at step 1, idiots at step 2. It's not bad enough that patsy Oswald was equipped with a rather implausible assassination weapon, but now the back-up gunmen in front were using cheap, smoky, hand-loaded ammunition in over-oiled guns that emitted puffs of smoke visible from 75 yards away.

I don't doubt Holland's good faith. No one else on the overpass saw what he saw. He said he couldn't be sure it was a shot and that it sounded distinctly different, like a firecracker. A backfiring, oil-burning car, steam connected with the railroad operation, or or a puff of cigarette or cigar smoke are far more plausible possibilities.

Then you know a .38 bullet can be hand-packed with "black powder," the precursor to modern-era gunpowder, and when fired, the bullet will release copious amounts of smoke. Especially if fired from a snub-nose .38. 

This is indisputable (and repeated in stage plays every year).

You may contend, if you wish, no one fired a gun on the GK as the JFK motorcade passed.  That is a matter of opinion and conjecture. We differ on that score. 

But when you say it is impossible such a weapon smoked, you have spoken incorrectly.

Keep in mind, the last official investigation into the JFKA concluded there had been a gunman in the GK, although his shot likely struck nothing of consequence. The HSCA investigation.

In this case, I suspect the HSCA got it right. My deduction is the GK gunsel was a decoy, or diversion, and fired a snub-nose .38---hand packed with black powder. 

Of course, you are aware someone flashed Secret Service credentials at Dallas police officer Joe Hill and then also Dallas Sheriff Seymour Weitzman in the GK area in the immediate aftermath of the JFKA. 

My conjecture may be right or not, and you may disagree, and that is fine. 

But it is rank canard that modern firearms cannot smoke after firing. That all depends on the gunpowder used. 

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2023 by Benjamin Cole

[Guest]

On 2/1/2023 at 5:42 PM, Benjamin Cole said:

Then you know a .38 bullet can be hand-packed with "black powder," the precursor to modern-era gunpowder, and when fired, the bullet will release copious amounts of smoke. Especially if fired from a snub-nose .38. 

Hi

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lance Payette

[Benjamin Cole]

11 hours ago, Lance Payette said:

BLACK POWDER? Black powder is used in replica firearms. I had a Colt Navy .45 black powder pistol. I've honestly never heard of anyone loading a modern .38 with black powder, but if they do it would either be for a historical reenactment of some sort or because the weapon was so old there was concern about the pressure generated by modern ammunition.

When I said modern weapons do not emit clouds of smoke, I certainly wasn't excluding the possibility of one loaded with black powder and caked with oil in the barrel. I wasn't saying it was impossible to make a rifle emit smoke.

Is that a plausible assassination scenario? Is that a plausible explanation for what Hoffman saw? A back-up gunman using black powder ammunition?

LP-

I do not place much credibility in Hoffman. 

However, there are any number of witnesses who saw smoke and heard a shot or shots from the GK area. That is beyond dispute. You can say the witnesses were mistaken.

A known tactic in all attacks is diversion (anyone with even an amateur buff interest in military tactics, like me, knows this). 

So, to create a diversion at GK, how to do? 

A smoke and bang show would work on the GK. This is the area where a Dallas sheriff and a Dallas cop, both reputable law men,  accosted a man flashing Secret Service credential. You can say the cop and sheriff were mistaken, but their independent testimonies seem to back each other up.  

Black powder? Why not---although a heavily lubed snub-nose .38 and cheap ammo might do the trick as well. 

As you are weapons expert, you know there is a great deal of "muzzle flash" from a snub-nose. The snub-nose .38 was the default weapon of choice for concealed carry in the 1960s. 

BTW, the HSCA did testing with guns, and found that some smoked. 

It has been a few decades since I was at a rifle range, but I seem to recall a haze in the air...surely I smelled gunsmoke.