Steve Thomas Posted Tuesday at 12:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:11 AM (edited) MAKE PETS SAFE AGAIN Donald Trump Saves Pets From Dark-Skinned Native Savages! https://x.com/LexCon75/status/1833003141974937864 PROTECT OUR DUCKS AND KITTENS IN OHIO! https://x.com/JudiciaryGOP/status/1833154509222129884 Things are getting pretty weird out there. Steve Thomas Edited Tuesday at 12:38 AM by Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted Tuesday at 01:21 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:21 AM I can't comprehend anyone ever taking Nate Silver seriously about anything, but for those that do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted Tuesday at 01:31 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:31 AM And one more word about polls. National polls, as I talked about earlier, really are quite worthless. As Kirk has pointed out many times, since the Electoral College is the only thing that matters, the polls to keep an eye on are those that are individually taken for the swing states. Those are the ones you want to dig into the details of, the crosstabs; as long as they're not done by one of the pollsters generally considered bogus/working for the GOP, like Trafalgar or Rasmussen. Pollster quality matters! So for me, this site is the one to watch; just click on a state to see the most recent polls from there: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/ Note: 538 is no longer associated with Nate Silver, so need to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted Tuesday at 01:42 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:42 AM One thing that will be somewhat helpful is we will know pretty early on election night if Harris has an easy win coming; if she takes North Carolina, then Trump is pretty much toast right then and there. If Trump manages to win NC, then it will be like 2020 where we are waiting 4-5 days to find out the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted Tuesday at 03:21 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:21 AM (edited) Geez... whatever happened to Republicans wanting less government? 🙄 Texas Sues For Access to Medical Records of Women Who Receive Abortions in Other States Disgraced Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued the Biden Administration to block a rule that protects the medical privacy of women who seek abortions in states where the procedure is legal. The rule is intended to safely allow women from red states access to reproductive healthcare in a different state in the wake of the Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision which overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. Paxton released a statement claiming the Biden Administration rule is a "backdoor attempt" to interfere with the ability of states to conduct criminal investigations. All medical records are protected under the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA), but law enforcement agencies typically have the ability to subpoena medical records for criminal investigations. Texas has already sought to subpoena medical records for patients who received gender affirming care in other states, but Seattle Children's Hospital, and a Georgia Telehealth clinic called QueerMed sued to prevent Texas accessing those records. https://meidasnews.com/news/texas-sues-for-access-to-medical-records-of-women-who-receive-abortions-in-other-states Paxton wants to look at your genitals. Edited Tuesday at 03:21 AM by W. Niederhut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ron Bulman Posted Tuesday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:00 AM Paxton ain't getting near my genitals, or ass. But here's a little more football related news. NFL-Police footage shows officers forcing Dolphins' Hill to ground during traffic stop (msn.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Fite Posted Tuesday at 05:46 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:46 AM (edited) 4 hours ago, Matt Allison said: National polls, as I talked about earlier, really are quite worthless. As Kirk has pointed out many times, since the Electoral College is the only thing that matters, the polls to keep an eye on are those that are individually taken for the swing states. This is why I prefer Pollyvote. The polls are combined with models & expectations & a naive forecast at the EC level into a probability model. Then the probabilities are used to get the projected EC vote probability distributions. The resulting probabilities are then more in line with reality than simple poll averaging schemes. Currently https://www.pollyvote.com shows Harris with a 55% chance of winning the EC vote. This seems about right given how divided the country is and time remaining until the election. Edited Tuesday at 05:48 AM by Bill Fite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Bacon Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:23 AM Thanks for the polling info you guys! ...very helpful. Now, it's off to my State's primary this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted Tuesday at 01:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:04 PM 2 hours ago, Paul Bacon said: Thanks for the polling info you guys! ...very helpful. Now, it's off to my State's primary this morning. Paul, I've never been very interested in race horse politics-- as opposed to policy issues-- but I have heard that Trump is not very popular in conservative New Hampshire lately. And yet, incredibly, Sununu still intends to vote for the Orange Felon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted Tuesday at 01:46 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:46 PM (edited) 13 hours ago, Steve Thomas said: MAKE PETS SAFE AGAIN Donald Trump Saves Pets From Dark-Skinned Native Savages! https://x.com/LexCon75/status/1833003141974937864 PROTECT OUR DUCKS AND KITTENS IN OHIO! https://x.com/JudiciaryGOP/status/1833154509222129884 Things are getting pretty weird out there. Steve Thomas - United States Senator, Ted Cruz - "Please Vote for Trump So Haitian Immigrants Don't Eat Us" https://x.com/tedcruz/status/1833174142591365185 A United States Senator wrote this. Truly, A United States of America Senator wrote this. And Ted Cruz of all people, who's ancestors were Cuban, and whose wife Donald Trump insulted and whose father Donald Trump maligned. Matthew 25:40 King James Version 40 And the King shall answer and say unto them, Verily I say unto you, Inasmuch as ye have done it unto one of the least of these my brethren, ye have done it unto me. Steve Thomas Edited Tuesday at 02:02 PM by Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted Tuesday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:51 PM Looks like Moscow got hit with huge number of Ukrainian drones a few hours ago; like, a ton of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM 4 hours ago, Steve Thomas said: - United States Senator, Ted Cruz - "Please Vote for Trump So Haitian Immigrants Don't Eat Us" https://x.com/tedcruz/status/1833174142591365185 MAGA is going all in using bigotry as their primary incentive to vote for them. I don't personally think that is going to work out well for them, at all, but it has resulted in some first class comedy with these ridiculous claims about people's pets being stolen and eaten. I mean, think about how low your IQ has to be to believe that BS. It really is so bad that it's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W. Niederhut Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:42 PM 18 minutes ago, Matt Allison said: MAGA is going all in using bigotry as their primary incentive to vote for them. I don't personally think that is going to work out well for them, at all, but it has resulted in some first class comedy with these ridiculous claims about people's pets being stolen and eaten. I mean, think about how low your IQ has to be to believe that BS. It really is so bad that it's funny. Matt, I'm old enough to remember a young black girl at school telling me before the 1964 Presidential election that LBJ was going to send black people back to Africa. It was a Republican trope circulating in our mixed-race neighborhood. And, yes, Trump loves the poorly educated. Someone joked a few years ago that there are two basic types of Trump voters-- those who are very rich, and those who are very stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Thomas Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:30 PM = Steve Benen, MSNBC - "A bunch of hysterical people told the senator that the ludicrous theory (vis-a-vis the cats and ducks) might be true, so Vance, instead of relying on facts, proceeded as if the preposterous claims had merit and deserved to be amplified." "The idea of applying critical thinking skills never entered the picture. The vice presidential hopeful isn’t a leader so much as he’s a follower of frenzied conservatives who saw some racist garbage on Facebook." You can't overlook the racist angle to all this. The perpetrators are all dark-skinned immigrants. Mark my words, before it's all over, cannibalism will be introduced into the picture. Steve Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Allison Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:34 PM Not parody; this is an actual real tweet Trump's campaign posted! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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