The Motorcade Puzzle

[Mark Tyler]

15 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Your mph designation for this span has the limo travel from 8.5mph (slowest) to 9.6mph (fastest).

This would equal an average of 9.05mph.

I've included Sprague's plotting for Z133 which I confirmed via my own plotting at Station# 2+99.0

WC CE884 plotted Z161 at Station# 3+29.2

The distance for these 28 frames = 329.2 - 299 = 30.2ft

You used 18.3fps as the frame rate for the extant Zfilm.

28/18.3 = 1.53 seconds.

30.2ft/1.53 seconds = 19.738ft per sec /1.47 (1mph-rounded off) = 13.427mph

At 9.05mph x 1.47ft per sec = 13.30ft per sec x 1.53 sec = 20.35ft traveled.

30.2ft - 20.35ft = 9.85ft distance traveled unaccounted for because of the difference in the vehicle speeds.

Chris, I suspect that the anomaly is mostly due to WC CE 884.  When I started this project I tried to use that table to calculate the Limo speed by putting the data into a spreadsheet.  I found that the Limo MPH values seemed to oscillate fairly wildly, which didn't make sense.  I concluded that there was something wrong with their measurements, so instead of using their data I used my own observations of the films and photos to place the Limo on the map at various key points.  The computer program then smoothly moves the Limo according to the clock for each of the frames.

This methodology is only an approximation of course, but the results are close enough to what happened to the Limo in 1963 as judged by the extant films: it catches the Limo slowdown around the Houston/Elm St. corner; the speedup for a few seconds until Z230; the slowdown around Z313; and the final burst of acceleration after about Z340.  In short, my measurements pass the smell test, but the Warren Commission measurements do not!

The other cause of the anomaly may be the minor differences between my map, the Warren Commission map (CE 585), and the Sprague/Cutler map.  However, these will be much less pronounced the the CE 884 issues.

[Mark Tyler]

12 hours ago, Robert Burrows said:

I've placed an x under the motorcycle that proceeds in front of the T.S.B.D. 

If you study the next few frames you can see the white portion of the motorcycle disappear behind the leaves of the tree that blocks view of the dead end street.

That's right Robert, the bike ridden by W.G. Lumpkin is hidden between frames Z040 and Z131 (or 5 seconds) before it becomes visible again just as Zapruder stops filming.  In the animation the bike is turning the corner at about 9-11 MPH during this period.

The next time these 3 bikes appear is in the Bell film just after the assassination, when they can be seen in the distance under the bridge:

https://www.jfkassassinationgallery.com/displayimage.php?pid=1461&fullsize=1

and then the McIntire photo about 10 seconds later:

https://www.jfkassassinationgallery.com/displayimage.php?pid=149&fullsize=1

Throughout this sequence the bike was travelling about 11-13 MPH which is consistent for the motorcade, so all of photos and films corroborate the animation fairly well regarding how this bike travelled down Elm Street as it left Dealey Plaza.

[Chris Davidson]

18 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

Chris, I suspect that the anomaly is mostly due to WC CE 884.  When I started this project I tried to use that table to calculate the Limo speed by putting the data into a spreadsheet.  I found that the Limo MPH values seemed to oscillate fairly wildly, which didn't make sense.  I concluded that there was something wrong with their measurements, so instead of using their data I used my own observations of the films and photos to place the Limo on the map at various key points.  The computer program then smoothly moves the Limo according to the clock for each of the frames.

This methodology is only an approximation of course, but the results are close enough to what happened to the Limo in 1963 as judged by the extant films: it catches the Limo slowdown around the Houston/Elm St. corner; the speedup for a few seconds until Z230; the slowdown around Z313; and the final burst of acceleration after about Z340.  In short, my measurements pass the smell test, but the Warren Commission measurements do not!

The other cause of the anomaly may be the minor differences between my map, the Warren Commission map (CE 585), and the Sprague/Cutler map.  However, these will be much less pronounced the the CE 884 issues.

Mark,

I agree.

They do not pass the smell test.

The reason they do not is to hide the alteration of the extant film.

Plotted, using the location of known stationary objects and "JFK's head within the limo" as the marker.

As you can see, the limo was traveling at approx the same speed from(z136-z149) and CE884 (z168-186), disregarding the B.S entry of z168-z171 = 3.74mph.

And, coincidentally, adding 5.49 missing feet to increase your mph up to the splice(frame156.5) within a certain amount of frames, would match the same speed (14.65mph) as the plotting provides.

The other version of CE884 has the limo move .9ft in 5 frames = 2.24mph

You can't smooth this out.

The limo had to travel a certain distance (unaccounted for) above and beyond that .9ft. Overlooking this very fundamental concept is a mistake. imo

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

This might help with the previous post if it appears somewhat confusing.

I'll push the frame comparison forward from your animation to z186.

You have the limo traveling at 11.1 mph.

Adding a missing distance of 5.49ft = 3.74mph over a 1second time frame to 11.1mph =

11.1 + 3.74 = 14.84mph.

Deciphered from the previous posting, 14.84mph sits quite appropriately between 14.65/14.94mph.

Since Shaneyfelt's testimony included the average figure of 11.2mph via z161/8- z313, your instantaneous speed at z186 complements the desired WC average speed for a distance/time they saw fit to manipulate. imo

 

 

 

[Mark Tyler]

15 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

They do not pass the smell test.

The reason they do not is to hide the alteration of the extant film.

Plotted, using the location of known stationary objects and "JFK's head within the limo" as the marker.

As you can see, the limo was traveling at approx the same speed from(z136-z149) and CE884 (z168-186), disregarding the B.S entry of z168-z171 = 3.74mph.

And, coincidentally, adding 5.49 missing feet to increase your mph up to the splice(frame156.5) within a certain amount of frames, would match the same speed (14.65mph) as the plotting provides.

The other version of CE884 has the limo move .9ft in 5 frames = 2.24mph

You can't smooth this out.

The limo had to travel a certain distance (unaccounted for) above and beyond that .9ft. Overlooking this very fundamental concept is a mistake. imo

I'm genuinely baffled by how CE 884 came to be so messed up: I would assume incompetence, but as you say it could have been some kind of deception.  Either way, the most important lesson here is: "you can't make a silk purse from a sows ear",  which is why I make my own measurements from the films and photos.  This approach seems to result in a nice smooth pattern of acceleration out of the bend until the Limo starts slowing after the first shot.

I think its probably too difficult to take exact measurements of the Limo from the Zapruder film Z133-Z215 due to the angle of view.  Luckily we have other photos in this time frame: Willis 4 & 5; Croft 3; Betzer 5.  This makes measuring easier as we can judge positions more accurately from a perpendicular angle by using the fixed items in the background such as: trees; pillars; signs; lampposts; etc.  If you check the animation frame by frame and look at the yellow flashes, the photos should match up with the depicted positions.  Vimeo allows you to move the video when paused by using Shift + left/right arrow keys.  Its not quite frame by frame sadly, but 0.1 of second is probably good enough.  Using the left/right arrows without the shift key seems to move the video forwards or backwards by one second.

Since I started the project I have discovered no signs of frame removal.  As the Presidential Limo changes speed in the animation, it seems to match the expected values from 1963 as it accelerated and decelerated at various stages along Houston and Elm Street.  This includes the reduction of speed around Z313 which was reported by a number of the witnesses who were close to the scene.

I briefly thought there may have been a problem when I struggled to synchronize the Wiegman film with the Zapruder film: there seemed to be 2-3 seconds missing.  However, I eventually concluded that the Wiegman film was recorded faster than the usual 24 FPS for 16mm film cameras, which I explain in more detail in appendix C of the handbook here:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63/mc63_handbook.pdf

Ultimately the only way to clear up the frame removal issue is to study the original film stock.  Sadly I doubt this opportunity will ever be offered to me, so I defer the final judgement on this issue to those who have had the privilege of studying the original film.

[Chris Davidson]

Did you know that the original Wiegman film is 36.5 seconds long?

If you used a shortened version say Groden’s version(inset) for syncing, the missing frames occur after Wiegman starts but before his kneel.

Your time to his kneel is approx 20.75 seconds.

The original syncs this event at 24 + 8/30 = 24.26seconds.

24.26sec - 20.75 sec = 3.51sec = missing film

You can then convert those time differences in terms of frame rate:

24.27 x 24 = 582.24 frames

582.24 / 20.75sec = 28.05fps

 

[Mark Tyler]

19 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Did you know that the original Wiegman film is 36.5 seconds long?

If you used a shortened version say Groden’s version(inset) for syncing, the missing frames occur after Wiegman starts but before his kneel.

Your time to his kneel is approx 20.75 seconds.

The original syncs this event at 24 + 8/30 = 24.26seconds.

24.26sec - 20.75 sec = 3.51sec = missing film

You can then convert those time differences in terms of frame rate:

24.27 x 24 = 582.24 frames

582.24 / 20.75sec = 28.05fps

That's right Chris, the original broadcast of the Dealey Plaza segments of the Wiegman film totalled 36.5 seconds.  The original NBC broadcast of the whole film (nearly 3 minutes) from mid afternoon on the day of the assassination is here:

The announcer said that the film was shown "unedited", which seems plausible as there was a fair bit of introductory footage, with the remainder being scenes from the Stemmons Freeway and Parkland Hospital.

The Dealey Plaza footage contained 3 scenes of about: 27.2, 4.3, and 5 seconds.  If we adjust to 28 FPS instead of the erroneous 24 FPS we get: 23.3, 3.7, and 4.3 seconds totalling about 31.3 seconds.  Therefore the kneel at about 20-21 seconds is about right because he cuts that scene just 2-3 seconds later.

Superficially the Wiegman film seems too shaky to be of value, but it is surprisingly useful due to its synchronicity with the last two shots fired and the Zapruder film.  It was shown publicly within hours of the assassination so there is no question of it being altered or suppressed.

Wiegman and his film have been extremely helpful to my work, and both deserve much more attention from researchers.  Wiegman's testimony is part of the proof that there was at least one shot after the fatal head shot, and his film has the potential to confirm or deny the authenticity of the Zapruder film timeline.

[Gene Kelly]

Just an observation, but the AMIPA film shows quite a bit of activity on the Knoll in/around the Pergola prior to the motorcade passage.  You can see Zapruder on the pedestal (there exist very few good photos of him) and what appears to be a male standing on top of the Pergola.  Has anyone studied that film in detail?

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/6/2019 at 4:08 PM, John Butler said:

2.  You need to show the Pilot Car.  You don't show this vehicle ahead of the Advance Motorcycles.  It is not necessary to show the Advance Car this turned from Main St. onto Market St. and left the motorcade.  See AMIPA film.

John, I spent some time reviewing the AMIPA film again frame by frame, and I think you are right about the front two cars.  The angles are slightly tricky to judge but I think the black "Advance Car" signals to turn off onto Market Street, and then just after the cut we see the back of the black car finishing the turn.  The shadow of the "Pilot Car" is on the road while this happens, and seems to carry on straight ahead towards Dealey Plaza.

I confirmed the location as Market Street with the help of a Jim Walker photo, which is in the Sixth Floor Museum collection here:

https://emuseum.jfk.org/objects/27349/black-and-white-photograph-of-the-presidential-limousine-in

Judging from the "PARK" sign and the building behind on the left, this is the same as the AMIPA film so we have a match which is confirmed by the "Texas Bank" on the opposite side of Main Street.  When the Presidential Limo drives past and the camera pans sharply it looks like these are the final few buildings on Main Street before the Old Red Courthouse.  Sadly the film cuts at this point.

I'm sorry if my earlier mistake caused any confusion, but after checking frame by frame, and cross referencing with other photos I think this is now correct.  With the "Pilot Car" carrying on to Dealey Plaza (about 20 seconds ahead of the bikes) I shall put this into the next version of the animation.  This route is confirmed by the driver G.L. Lumpkin who described going through Dealey Plaza in the Warren Commission Volume 21 Page 579:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh21/pdf/WH21_Stevenson_Ex_5053.pdf

Thanks for bringing this to my attention and making the work more accurate!

[Mark Tyler]

21 hours ago, Gene Kelly said:

Just an observation, but the AMIPA film shows quite a bit of activity on the Knoll in/around the Pergola prior to the motorcade passage.  You can see Zapruder on the pedestal (there exist very few good photos of him) and what appears to be a male standing on top of the Pergola.  Has anyone studied that film in detail?

Well spotted Gene, there does indeed seem to be someone perched on the top of the Pergola!  He seems to be holding a shovel or something like that.

I think this scene is from the day after the assassination though, as the video description mentions 23rd November for the second part of the video.

[John Butler]

3 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

John, I spent some time reviewing the AMIPA film again frame by frame, and I think you are right about the front two cars.  The angles are slightly tricky to judge but I think the black "Advance Car" signals to turn off onto Market Street, and then just after the cut we see the back of the black car finishing the turn.  The shadow of the "Pilot Car" is on the road while this happens, and seems to carry on straight ahead towards Dealey Plaza.

I confirmed the location as Market Street with the help of a Jim Walker photo, which is in the Sixth Floor Museum collection here:

https://emuseum.jfk.org/objects/27349/black-and-white-photograph-of-the-presidential-limousine-in

Judging from the "PARK" sign and the building behind on the left, this is the same as the AMIPA film so we have a match which is confirmed by the "Texas Bank" on the opposite side of Main Street.  When the Presidential Limo drives past and the camera pans sharply it looks like these are the final few buildings on Main Street before the Old Red Courthouse.  Sadly the film cuts at this point.

I'm sorry if my earlier mistake caused any confusion, but after checking frame by frame, and cross referencing with other photos I think this is now correct.  With the "Pilot Car" carrying on to Dealey Plaza (about 20 seconds ahead of the bikes) I shall put this into the next version of the animation.  This route is confirmed by the driver G.L. Lumpkin who described going through Dealey Plaza in the Warren Commission Volume 21 Page 579:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh21/pdf/WH21_Stevenson_Ex_5053.pdf

Thanks for bringing this to my attention and making the work more accurate!

No problem Mark,

It is my impression that the first car of the motorcade turned off on Market Street you can see the car broadside in the turn.

The white Pilot car is see earlier in the film further down Main.  I believe, if my memory is correct, that the white Pilot Car is seen in the Muchmore film turning onto Main St.  later.  As far as I know that particular car is seen only in those films.

And, from Muchmore:

[Chris Davidson]

On 10/10/2019 at 12:46 PM, Mark Tyler said:

That's right Chris, the original broadcast of the Dealey Plaza segments of the Wiegman film totalled 36.5 seconds.  The original NBC broadcast of the whole film (nearly 3 minutes) from mid afternoon on the day of the assassination is here:

The announcer said that the film was shown "unedited", which seems plausible as there was a fair bit of introductory footage, with the remainder being scenes from the Stemmons Freeway and Parkland Hospital.

The Dealey Plaza footage contained 3 scenes of about: 27.2, 4.3, and 5 seconds.  If we adjust to 28 FPS instead of the erroneous 24 FPS we get: 23.3, 3.7, and 4.3 seconds totalling about 31.3 seconds.  Therefore the kneel at about 20-21 seconds is about right because he cuts that scene just 2-3 seconds later.

Superficially the Wiegman film seems too shaky to be of value, but it is surprisingly useful due to its synchronicity with the last two shots fired and the Zapruder film.  It was shown publicly within hours of the assassination so there is no question of it being altered or suppressed.

Wiegman and his film have been extremely helpful to my work, and both deserve much more attention from researchers.  Wiegman's testimony is part of the proof that there was at least one shot after the fatal head shot, and his film has the potential to confirm or deny the authenticity of the Zapruder film timeline.

I disagree.

Start with this:

Bell's physical filming location for this segment is incorrect.

Bell's starting time for this same segment (extant z460) is also incorrect.

 

 

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/12/2019 at 2:59 PM, John Butler said:

No problem Mark,

It is my impression that the first car of the motorcade turned off on Market Street you can see the car broadside in the turn.

I agree, I think that the black car turning off is definitely the advanced car:  a single occupant; a white car following behind; and bikes about 20 seconds behind the white car all fits exactly with the known motorcade vehicle pattern.

On 10/12/2019 at 2:59 PM, John Butler said:

The white Pilot car is see earlier in the film further down Main.  I believe, if my memory is correct, that the white Pilot Car is seen in the Muchmore film turning onto Main St.  later.  As far as I know that particular car is seen only in those films.

Indeed, I've not seen these two cars anywhere else, either in films or photos.  The versions of the Paschall film that I have seen do have some early footage of the Market Street area, but then it cuts to the advanced bikes just missing what the AMIPA film shows.

The white car in the Muchmore film is tricky to identify due to timing issues.  Specifically, the traffic is flowing around the white car, whereas we know that when the bikes turn the same corner just seconds after the pilot car the traffic has completely stopped and cleared.  For example there is a bus parked behind the white car, but when the bikes are turning it has disappeared completely.  Therefore I suspect the Muchmore white car was probably filmed a few minutes before the Pilot car appeared.

Either way, we still have enough evidence with the AMIPA film and the Warren Commission testimony to be confident that the white pilot car drove through Dealey Plaza.  Pilot car puzzle solved!

[Mark Tyler]

1 hour ago, Chris Davidson said:

I disagree.

Start with this:

Bell's physical filming location for this segment is incorrect.

Bell's starting time for this same segment (extant z460) is also incorrect.

I calculated the position of Bell by triangulating the fixed positions of the bridge, lampposts, signs, and pergola.  Do you think he was perched in a different gap in the peristyle?

Its possible I wasn't using a complete version of the film, which may mean the start point was earlier.  Is there a complete version of the film somewhere online?

[Chris Davidson]

You do have the limo position fairly accurate for extant z437(very important). Bell starts filming slightly before that.

Something like this: