PRAYER PERSON - PRAYER MAN OR PRAYER WOMAN? RESEARCH THREAD

[Claude Barnabe]

On 1/10/2017 at 3:01 PM, Bart Kamp said:

 

Your information is correct, we have been thru the motions and then some in 2015 I made a draft blog post that has been in draft mode for more than a year.Think it;s time to pub that thing soon as soon I get a few more bits cleared up.

The Wiegman film is shown as part of  their archives, but the quality is rubbish since it comes from 3/4" video tape.

What was it that caught your interest?

 

Sorry, can't answer your question. NBC has revamped their archive site for 2017. I cannot retrieve what was available just a short time ago.

[Claude Barnabe]

Would it be presumptuous of me to ask those who are posting on this thread to preface their remarks with a simple statement of whether or not they believe LHO was involved in the assassination. It helps set the perspective. IMHO.

[Ray Mitcham]

11 hours ago, Claude Barnabe said:

Would it be presumptuous of me to ask those who are posting on this thread to preface their remarks with a simple statement of whether or not they believe LHO was involved in the assassination. It helps set the perspective. IMHO.

Claude, whether Oswald was involved or not is not  the question. The question is "was it a conspiracy?"

 

Once this is proved then we move on to Oswald.

 

If as it seems, Oswald was "prayer man," then his innocence from firing the rifle from the sixth floor , and a conspiracy would be proven. 

That's what this topic is all about.

Edited January 12, 2017 by Ray Mitcham

[Bill Miller]

50 minutes ago, Ray Mitcham said:

Claude, whether Oswald was involved or not is not  the question. The question is "was it a conspiracy?"

I thought the "conspiracy" question was resolved long ago when the medical personnel said that the wounds in the autopsy photographs was not the condition of the President's head at the time of the shooting - when more than one person was said to have been seen on the 6th floor - just prior and after the shooting - and was later stated to be the findings of the HSCA.

So to answer Claude's question - I do not believe Oswald fired a rifle on 11/22/63 and may have been the source for the warning of an assassination attempt on JFK's life. But what I do not know is whether Oswald was involved in some other capacity.

 

[Ray Mitcham]

12 minutes ago, Bill Miller said:

I thought the "conspiracy" question was resolved long ago when the medical personnel said that the wounds in the autopsy photographs was not the condition of the President's head at the time of the shooting - when more than one person was said to have been seen on the 6th floor - just prior and after the shooting - and was later stated to be the findings of the HSCA.

So to answer Claude's question - I do not believe Oswald fired a rifle on 11/22/63 and may have been the source for the warning of an assassination attempt on JFK's life. But what I do not know is whether Oswald was involved in some other capacity.

 

This topic is not about whether Oswald shot anybody. It's about the Prayerman figure, which we are trying to identify.

[Bill Miller]

4 hours ago, Ray Mitcham said:

This topic is not about whether Oswald shot anybody. It's about the Prayerman figure, which we are trying to identify.

Unless a clear film or photo image of that entrance way - no one will ever ID Prayer Man. The one thing I mentioned in an earlier post that there was one person who recalled what Oswald was wearing on 11/22/63 and they described him as having dark or black pants. I do not see any evidence of Prayer Man having on dark or black pants.

[Ray Mitcham]

On 1/12/2017 at 6:44 PM, Bill Miller said:

Unless a clear film or photo image of that entrance way - no one will ever ID Prayer Man. The one thing I mentioned in an earlier post that there was one person who recalled what Oswald was wearing on 11/22/63 and they described him as having dark or black pants. I do not see any evidence of Prayer Man having on dark or black pants.

What colour pants do you see, Bill?

[Michael Clark]

I recall Marina O. testifying that she laughed when she saw him dressed in black to take the backyard photos. She laughed because she said that he never wore black. When investigators searched his belongings, they found no black clothes.

[Guest]

 

2 hours ago, Ray Mitcham said:

What colour pants do you see, Bill?

I see an Irishman in a tartan kilt holding a bagpipe, doctor.  If nothing else, this thread demonstrates that PM is little more than a Rorschach test.  The approach of PM fans seems to me fundamentally misguided.  By trying to measure the height of the figure, identify the clothing, account for the whereabouts of all the other TSBD employees, etc., we supposedly arrive at a high probability that PM is LHO.  But wait, what is the probability absolutely no one would have said LHO was standing on the steps?  What is the probability the conspirators who were planting LHO's rifle on the 6th floor and setting him up as the patsy would have allowed him to be anywhere near the front steps?  What is the probability LHO would not have been screaming to reporters, “I was on the front steps – ask the other employees who were there!”?  What is the probability Fritz would have stupidly put “out with Bill Shelley in front” in his notes if LHO had actually been saying he was standing out front with Shelley at the time of the assassination?  For each of these, the probability is essentially zero. Cumulatively, these probabilities overwhelm any probability you want to assign to the blurry, grainy photo.  Ergo, in the absence of a photo showing beyond question that PM is in fact LHO, the PM discussion is meaningless.  The logic being applied – oh, well, LHO "probably" did say he was on the steps, others "probably" did identify him but were intimidated or had their statements suppressed, the FBI "probably" confiscated other photos more clearly showing LHO, the conspirators "probably" had good reasons for not even caring if LHO was seen on the steps – is ass-backwards Conspiracy Logic that makes sense only if one has completely lost all perspective.  It's not just that the probability of all these "probablies" is pretty much zero, it's that they make no sense.  I have no foaming-at-the-mouth desire to prove PM is not LHO because all the other probabilities make it a virtual certainty it isn’t.  If it turns out to be, OK cool - but you will never "prove" it is by the sort of analysis being undertaken here, because all the other probabilities make it a virtual certainty your analysis is wrong.  You're going to overcome all those other probabilities, and the one-in-ten-million odds that flow from them, only with a definitive, no-question-about-it photo.

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by Guest

[Michael Clark]

There should be literally thousands of pictures of the motorcade, and people, all around the motorcade, at the corner of Elm and Houston. The fact that there are not, is as strange as the fact that it seems so implausible that they could be made to disappear.

[Andrej Stancak]

2 hours ago, Lance Payette said:

 

I see an Irishman in a tartan kilt holding a bagpipe, doctor.  If nothing else, this thread demonstrates that PM is little more than a Rorschach test.  The approach of PM fans seems to me fundamentally misguided.  By trying to measure the height of the figure, identify the clothing, account for the whereabouts of all the other TSBD employees, etc., we supposedly arrive at a high probability that PM is LHO.  But wait, what is the probability absolutely no one would have said LHO was standing on the steps?  What is the probability the conspirators who were planting LHO's rifle on the 6th floor and setting him up as the patsy would have allowed him to be anywhere near the front steps?  What is the probability LHO would not have been screaming to reporters, “I was on the front steps – ask the other employees who were there!”?  What is the probability Fritz would have stupidly put “out with Bill Shelley in front” in his notes if LHO had actually been saying he was standing out front with Shelley at the time of the assassination?  For each of these, the probability is essentially zero. Cumulatively, these probabilities overwhelm any probability you want to assign to the blurry, grainy photo.  Ergo, in the absence of a photo showing beyond question that PM is in fact LHO, the PM discussion is meaningless.  The logic being applied – oh, well, LHO "probably" did say he was on the steps, others "probably" did identify him but were intimidated or had their statements suppressed, the FBI "probably" confiscated other photos more clearly showing LHO, the conspirators "probably" had good reasons for not even caring if LHO was seen on the steps – is ass-backwards Conspiracy Logic that makes sense only if one has completely lost all perspective.  It's not just that the probability of all these "probablies" is pretty much zero, it's that they make no sense.  I have no foaming-at-the-mouth desire to prove PM is not LHO because all the other probabilities make it a virtual certainty it isn’t.  If it turns out to be, OK cool - but you will never "prove" it is by the sort of analysis being undertaken here, because all the other probabilities make it a virtual certainty your analysis is wrong.  You're going to overcome all those other probabilities, and the one-in-ten-million odds that flow from them, only with a definitive, no-question-about-it photo.

 

Lance:

I see it differently. If it will be possible to demonstrate that Prayer Man measured 5'9'' and that he came from the inside the building, the probability that he was Lee Harvey Oswald would be extremely high against the probability that it was just anyone. We speak about the odds of Prayer Man 1. was a Caucasian, 2. he was a male, 3. he wears a worker type of clothing, 4, his hair line is remarkably similar to that of Lee Harvey Oswald, 4. he came from inside the building (remains to be demonstrated), 5. he is 5'9'' tall (remains to be demonstrated). 6. Prayer Man assumed a specific stance which Oswald displayed on several occasions when photographed while standing upright (remains to be demonstrated).

These characteristics if taken together would be unusually unlikely to occur by chance, we speak about multiplying the probabilities, not about a probability of one single characteristic. The chance level can be evaluated by calculating the probability that any other from roughly 50 Depository employees would match each and every of these characteristics. Thus, the research into Prayer Man has a very good meaning because it narrows down the possibilities for any other employee to be Prayer Man. I agree that only looking on Darnell's picture cannot yield any conclusive confirmation of Prayer Man's identity. However, it is still worthy to bring this investigation to the ultimate endpoint available to us. 

Your post explains why you would never undertake any serious research in Prayer Man, and it has been noted in your earlier posts. Your attitude is basically similar to Bill's or Paul's. Other researchers are different. I would "stick into a dead  horse" just to find out what still can be learned. The further you go, the more difficult it gets. If people would say it is impossible, there would be no landing on the Moon or a discovery of Higgs bosson because why to do any research if the outcome is impossible...

As far as the clothing is concerned, let us stick to empirical data. Marina Oswald testified that the slacks Oswald wore on Friday morning were those shown in CE157, and the shirt was of about the same colour based on evaluation of black-and-white pictures (CE151 and CE157). The slacks had a specific feature - they did not hold the shape too well and were loose, especially in the bottom part. The slacks CE157 are compatible with Prayer Man's clothing and some features of his left leg, and the clothing CE151+CE157 certainly does not contradict the possibility that Prayer Man was Oswald, it rather strengthens it.

The evergreen of those opposing Prayer Man=Oswald hypothesis is that there was no one reporting him to be present in the doorway, therefore he could not have been in the doorway. I have commented on this in my previous posts, however, it is perhaps necessary to do it again. Oswald, if he were Prayer Man, stood in the doorway for a very short period, my estimate is between 45 and 120 s. It was the period overlapping with seconds just following the last shot up to two minutes later as Oswald was seen by Occhus Campbell only two minutes after the last shot in the storage room in the vicinity of the main entrance. During this period, people on steps were upset, perplexed, and viewed towards the Triple underpass/Grassy knoll. Those standing below Prayer Man would not turn their head towards the door to be able to spot Prayer Man. Those standing on the top platform did see Oswald but did not say. If Oswald was in the doorway, suppression of this information would be the first and primary task in the cover up. Frazier, Shelley and Lovelady were taken to the police headquarters almost right away, Molina was visited during the night (this I do not remember accurately). Mrs. Sanders and Miss Stanton gave their negative testimonies and were never seen. There never was a more sensitive issue than the presence of Oswald in the doorway in the whole cover up. If it did happen, we can be sure it would never perspire. If it did not happen, no one has reported. Thus, the absence of witness testimonies has no information value as it does not really exclude the possibility of a short stay of Oswald in the doorway.

By the way, no one actually saw Oswald after he allegedly came down from the second floor holding a bottle of Coke. Why? Is not strange that those employees who already were in the first floor vestibule did seen him passing. Just no one? They did not even see him leaving, supposedly via the doorway. Why? I see a complete blindness and avoidance to shed any light on Oswald's movements from 11.50 onward. Thus, Oswald could have been in the doorway for a brief period of time and no one would say anything. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 14, 2017 by Andrej Stancak

[Guest]

56 minutes ago, Andrej Stancak said:

Lance:

I see it differently. If it will be possible to demonstrate that Prayer Man measured 5'9'' and that he came from the inside the building, the probability that he was Lee Harvey Oswald would be extremely high against the probability that it was just anyone. We speak about the odds of Prayer Man 1. was a Caucasian, 2. he was a male, 3. he wears a worker type of clothing, 4, his hair line is remarkably similar to that of Lee Harvey Oswald, 4. he came from inside the building (remains to be demonstrated), 5. he is 5'9'' tall (remains to be demonstrated). 6. Prayer Man assumed a specific stance which Oswald displayed on several occasions when photographed while standing upright (remains to be demonstrated).

In 1960, the average height of American males was just over 5'8".  It is 5'9" today.  So if PM is actually 5'9", he is Mr. Average.  Things like the "worker type of clothing," "hair line remarkably similar to" LHO, "specific stance which LHO displayed," etc., seem to me to be Rorschach-type projections.  Because of the other high improbabilities that I identified, which you really did not address, even if it could be conclusively demonstrated that PM was a 5'9" male who came from inside the TSBD, and even if I were willing to put on my conspiracy beanie (which I am perfectly willing to do), a more plausible hypothesis to me would be that this mystery figure was actually someone connected with the conspiracy rather than LHO.  This would explain why no one paid any attention to PM or mentioned him - he was an inconsequential stranger.  Perhaps they assumed he was (or perhaps he actually was) a visitor associated with one of the several publishing companies that had offices inside the TSBD.  I'm not pooh-poohing your work - go for it.  But clearly, to me, (1) an intense desire for this to be LHO is driving the PM project, and (2) huge improbabilities that would have to fall into place for PM to be LHO are being ignored or explained away with raw speculation.  Surely the brouhaha over Lovelady supposedly being LHO should be cause for extreme caution?

2 hours ago, Michael Clark said:

There should be literally thousands of pictures of the motorcade, and people, all around the motorcade, at the corner of Elm and Houston. The fact that there are not, is as strange as the fact that it seems so implausible that they could be made to disappear.

Yes, the paucity of photos does seem odd.  You have to remember, however, that this was hardly the age of digital cameras and cell phones.  When you look at the crowd standing at that corner, you see few if any cameras.  Putting on my conspiracy beanie again, there is one story that has always stuck in my mind.  Now I can't locate it or recall where I read it, of course, but I'm 99% sure it was in Walt Brown's chronology.  My description will probably be inaccurate, but someone can correct me.  Basically, a guy had an hour to kill in Dallas before his bus left for Denver (I think) at noon on the day of the assassination.  As I recall, he was a missionary of some sort.  Anyway, he wandered down to Dealey Plaza, took some photos, got on the bus, and went home without having told anyone about having taken any photos.  Incredibly, the next morning FBI agents were at the door of the rooming house where he lived - in Colorado, mind you - and confiscated his film.  If that is true - or anything like that is true - it's damn weird.

Edited January 14, 2017 by Guest

[Michael Clark]

Lance, I did hyperbolize with my "literally thousands" comment. But the point stands. You make a point, however, that existing photos do tend to support the idea that few people had cameras on that day; perhaps that is why those photos survive. I never cease to confound myself with ideas like this.

I am a sceptic, but I am not cynical, thank goodness. Unfortunately, I am not courageous, or at least I have not been tested. None of these inquires fools good, or safe; it's certainly not wise to talk to people you know about it. I should just surrender, buy a TV and a thousand-channel-cable-plan, and adopt a favorite professional sports team for each season. This stuff is murky and bewildering.

Edited January 14, 2017 by Michael Clark

[Andrej Stancak]

2 minutes ago, Lance Payette said:

n 1960, the average height of American males was just over 5'8".  It is 5'9" today.  So if PM is actually 5'9", he is Mr. Average.  Things like the "worker type of clothing," "hair line remarkably similar to" LHO, "specific stance which LHO displayed," etc., seem to me to be Rorschach-type projections.  Because of the other high improbabilities that I identified, which you really did not address, even if it could be conclusively demonstrated that PM was a 5'9" male who came from inside the TSBD, and even if I were willing to put on my conspiracy beanie (which I am perfectly willing to do), a more plausible hypothesis to me would be that this mystery figure was actually someone connected with the conspiracy rather than LHO.  This would explain why no one paid any attention to PM or mentioned him - he was an inconsequential stranger.  Perhaps they assumed he was (or perhaps he actually was) a visitor associated with one of the several publishing companies that had offices inside the TSBD.  I'm not pooh-poohing your work - go for it.  But clearly, to me, (1) an intense desire for this to be LHO is driving the PM project, and (2) huge improbabilities that would have to fall into place for PM to be LHO are being ignored or explained away with raw speculation.

2 hours ago, Michael Clark said:

Lance:

You may have not understood my point. We speak about features of Prayer Man which collectively cannot occur by chance. You are right that by chance a stranger would likely measure 5'8''. However, he would also need to come from inside the building (needs to be demonstrated) and none of the Depository employees reported seeing any stranger in the building on that day. He would need to have a hairline matching Oswald's hairline, and he would need to stand with his left leg bent in the knee joint and the right leg pushed back, just like Oswald used to stand. He would also need to wear a worker type of clothing matching CE151 and C157. These are just too many characteristics matching Oswald that the chance that these features would match any random person at Dealey Plaza is just too small. Actually, the odds can be calculated but it does not have sense at this stage.

[Guest]

Andrej, I don't want to beat this to death (but why not, since we're on page 45 anyway?), but I understood your point.  Sure, the factors you identify would, collectively, make it more likely that PM is LHO.  If PM can conclusively be shown to have come from inside the TSBD, that would be very significant.  But truly, the height, hair line, clothes, stance, etc., are never going to get you beyond "Yeah, PM could be LHO."  You then have to deal with the improbabilities I mentioned, which are going to drive you to "Yeah, but it's almost certainly not."  How many men in America, or even in my town, are similar in height, hair line, clothing type and stance to me?  More than a few, I would guess.  You say that no one reported any strangers in the TSBD that day?  But wait, surely any conspiracy theory worth it's salt has to posit that there were indeed strangers in the building that day, does it not?  If PM is LHO and there were no strangers in the TSBD, then I'm lost.  My theory, when I'm wearing my conspiracy beanie, would be that if there is not some mundane explanation for PM (a citizen who just stepped up there to get out of the sun, or for a better view, or who went into the TSBD to use the bathroom or pay phone) then PM is most likely some stranger connected with the conspiracy.  This would eliminate all of the other improbabilities I have mentioned - all of them.  Really, the PM folks need to show some love for my theory.  Then, when we finally get a photo conclusively showing PM is not LHO, they can easily shift to "Of course, it's not.  It's one of the conspirators!  That was our back-up hypothesis all along."