The Motorcade Puzzle

[Mark Tyler]

Here is version 1.6 of the Motorcade 63 animation and the technical reference handbook:

https://www.marktyler.org/mc63.html

As well as generally fine tuning things, here are the more notable changes:

I added the Pilot Car, including its brief stop on the Elm Street turn as per the statement in the Warren Commission volume 21 page 579:

https://www.history-matters.com/archive/jfk/wc/wcvols/wh21/pdf/WH21_Stevenson_Ex_5053.pdf

I changed the positions of Orville Nix after I did some more detailed triangulation using his film and the fixed positions of the Dealey Plaza scene.

As per requests, I moved the clock which enabled me to slightly enlarge the map.

I adjusted the Altgens path slightly, so his casual amble around the Newmans conforms more strictly to Bond 4, Cancellare 1, Towner 2, and Bothun 5 which were all seemingly taken within about 10 seconds of each other.

Thank you all for the feedback regarding the previous version, I really appreciate people sharing their knowledge and expertise to help make the work better.

[Chris Davidson]

Mark,

The PressPool car appears (red box gif) within the Couch segment.

After syncing Couch/Darnell, use the overlap as the start point. You have the Presspool car 3 seconds ahead (imo) of where it should be when syncing it back to the overlap.

The timing is as such:

Mark's animation- 25.46 - 26.33(PressPool car enters shadow)= .87sec.

Darnell/Couch overlap to first frame in Couch where the red box(PressPool car) appears= 88 frames

88/24fps = 3.66sec

It only takes 5 frames for the car to enter the shadow in Couch    5/24 = .21sec

It takes .87sec for the PressPool car to enter the shadow in your animation.

.87 - .21 = .66 sec

3.66 .66 = 3sec difference.

[Mark Tyler]

2 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

Mark,

The PressPool car appears (red box gif) within the Couch segment.

After syncing Couch/Darnell, use the overlap as the start point. You have the Presspool car 3 seconds ahead (imo) of where it should be when syncing it back to the overlap.

The timing is as such:

Mark's animation- 25.46 - 26.33(PressPool car enters shadow)= .87sec.

Darnell/Couch overlap to first frame in Couch where the red box(PressPool car) appears= 88 frames

88/24fps = 3.66sec

It only takes 5 frames for the car to enter the shadow in Couch    5/24 = .21sec

It takes .87sec for the PressPool car to enter the shadow in your animation.

.87 - .21 = .66 sec

3.66 .66 = 3sec difference.

That's a really useful spot of the National Press Pool car, Chris, thanks!  I hadn't spotted it going under the bridge before, but I think you are right about the 3 second gap, so I will need to do some adjusting to get that sequence correct.  This is all within a second or so of Altgens arriving on the right hand side of the road; Hargis departing to get back to his bike; and then Haygood riding between the camera cars.

With the Press Pool car also having sync points with the Bell and Paschall films as previously discussed, this may affect Wiegman and Hester calculations too.  Once I have explored this over the next few days I will post the results in the thread.

[Mark Tyler]

On 10/31/2019 at 7:27 PM, Chris Davidson said:

After syncing Couch/Darnell, use the overlap as the start point. You have the Presspool car 3 seconds ahead (imo) of where it should be when syncing it back to the overlap.

I updated the animation, and it seems the main cause of the problem was that the Press Pool car and the Mayors car accelerated away too quickly.  I had to tweak a few other items like the McIntire 1 and Altgens 8 photos by a second or two to fit things in, but otherwise nothing else needed to change.  Here are a few key frames with the new timings in:

I think this all looks OK, but let me know if something doesn't look quite right in terms of the positions or speeds of the vehicles.

Thanks again for finding this glitch, I doubt I would have spotted it otherwise.  Along with the other improvements people have suggested, I think it shows the value of a community effort so anyone can spot my mistakes and suggest improvements (regardless of which side of the debate they are on).

[Chris Davidson]

15 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

 

 

 

I think this all looks OK, but let me know if something doesn't look quite right in terms of the positions or speeds of the vehicles.

Thanks again for finding this glitch, I doubt I would have spotted it otherwise.  Along with the other improvements people have suggested, I think it shows the value of a community effort so anyone can spot my mistakes and suggest improvements (regardless of which side of the debate they are on).

The new time span for the (Paschall/Bell) PressPoolCar sync to the PressPoolCar in the underpass shadow is 20.36 - 29.45 = 9.09sec.

Bell films for 2.05 sec after the Paschall/Bell PressPoolCar sync until the Bell/Wiegman sync. Bell films for another 1.73 sec and gets Wiegman beginning to rise for his run down the knoll.

4.16 sec into Couch,  the PressPoolCar enter the underpass shadow.

This total time from the Paschall/Bell PressPoolCar sync to the PressPoolCar in the underpass shadow is 2.05 + 1.73 + 4.16 = 7.94sec.

That is a difference of 1.15 sec (9.09 - 7.94sec).

The time difference between the last of Bell (Picks up Wiegman beginning to rise) and when we see Wiegman in Couch is 3.45 sec.

It appears that from Couch's LOS (Wiegman under the Thornton Sign) Wiegman is finished rising.

So, the 1.15sec difference could be that it took Wiegman that extra time to rise or he remained stationary for an extra 1.15 sec.

Or you need an adjustment of a 1.15sec time reduction coming sometime after Bell stops filming the last of Wiegman.

 

 

[Mark Tyler]

On 11/3/2019 at 7:03 AM, Chris Davidson said:

This total time from the Paschall/Bell PressPoolCar sync to the PressPoolCar in the underpass shadow is 2.05 + 1.73 + 4.16 = 7.94sec.

That is a difference of 1.15 sec (9.09 - 7.94sec).

The time difference between the last of Bell (Picks up Wiegman beginning to rise) and when we see Wiegman in Couch is 3.45 sec.

It appears that from Couch's LOS (Wiegman under the Thornton Sign) Wiegman is finished rising.

So, the 1.15sec difference could be that it took Wiegman that extra time to rise or he remained stationary for an extra 1.15 sec.

Or you need an adjustment of a 1.15sec time reduction coming sometime after Bell stops filming the last of Wiegman.

Its good to see that the adjustment to the Press Pool car has reduced the gap down to around a second.  As you say this remaining gap could be either Wiegman delaying his dash, or a need to tighten other events after Bell stops filming.  Sadly without more film footage its impossible to say which it is, so for now its probably safer to leave it as it is.

The crucial sync point with that early Couch scene is how it fixes the bikes and people running just as Haygood passes between the two camera cars.  The speeds for the people and vehicles feels about right here, but there is always a margin for error as the timing and spatial measurements can never be 100% accurate.

[Jon Pickering]

https://youtu.be/u9WgtlgGAgs

[Chris Davidson]

2 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

Its good to see that the adjustment to the Press Pool car has reduced the gap down to around a second.  As you say this remaining gap could be either Wiegman delaying his dash, or a need to tighten other events after Bell stops filming.  Sadly without more film footage its impossible to say which it is, so for now its probably safer to leave it as it is.

The crucial sync point with that early Couch scene is how it fixes the bikes and people running just as Haygood passes between the two camera cars.  The speeds for the people and vehicles feels about right here, but there is always a margin for error as the timing and spatial measurements can never be 100% accurate.

Recapping the two main time gap issues up to and including (Hester in Shadow) the Bell/Wiegman sync.

Myers needed 1.47 sec added.

The PressPoolCar was 3 sec too slow

Total time difference = 4.47 sec

4.47sec x 24 = 107.28 frames

28-24 = 4 x 26.83sec = 107.32 frames

 

[John Butler]

Mark,

At first I didn't think much of your project however,  it is coming along well.  Your doing good work and keep it up. 

I might make a suggestion at this point on Altgens 6. 

The Vice Presidential security vehicle looks like it has just made the turn onto Elm Street and is in the intersection of Elm and Houston.  If it is further down the road as you have placed it then the people on the side walk should appear smaller.  The Vice Presidential vehicle is at best one or at most two white stripes from the SS security vehicle.  It and the VP car is perhaps 2 car lengths from the SS vehicle.  You have it placed further down the street.  This maybe just a matter of visual interpretation on camera angles.  You have it passing the first tree on Elm or more correctly the little island whereas Altgens shows the vehicle before it reaches the tree.

The second suggestion is a bit more serious.  You've made a minor error shown below:

You have omitted the Mayor's Car which has Mrs. Dearie Cabell in it.  You have these vehicles, 19 and 20,  stopping in front of the TSBD on Elm Street.  Read Mrs. Cabell's WC testimony and she says exactly where her vehicle stopped.  She said her vehicle stopped in the turn and she was looking directly at the TSBD.

Mrs. Earle Cabell’s Warren Commission testimony on July 13, 1964:

 

Congressman Roberts was sitting just as this lady is now, and turned the

same way. I was turned facing him. We were looking directly at each other,

The position of our car was such that when that first shot rang out, my position

was such that I did not have to turn to look at the building. I was directly

facing it.

 

Mr. Hubert. In other words, your car was still really on Houston?

 

Mrs. Cabell. No ; we were making the turn.

 

Mr. Hubert. Just on the turn?

 

Mrs. Cabell. Just on the turn, which put us at the top of the hill, you see.

 

Mr. Hubert. Since you were actually turned toward Representative Roberts

on your right?

 

Mrs. Cabell. Yes.

 

Mr. Hubert. Actually, you were facing

 

Mrs. Cabell. The building.

 

Mr. Hubert. The Texas Depository Building?

 

Mrs. Cabell. I was actually facing it.

 

Mr. Hubert. What was the first thing you noticed of an extraordinary na-

ture, or heard?

 

Mrs. Cabell. I heard the shot, and without having to turn my head, I jerked

my head up.

 

Mr. Hubert. Why did you do that?

 

Mrs. Cabell. Because I heard the direction from which the shot came, and I

just jerked my head up.

 

Mr. Hubert. What did you see?

 

Mrs. Cabell. I saw a projection out of one of those windows. Those win-

dows on the sixth floor are in groups of twos.

 

 

[Chris Davidson]

On 11/4/2019 at 7:55 AM, Chris Davidson said:

Recapping the two main time gap issues up to and including (Hester in Shadow) the Bell/Wiegman sync.

Myers needed 1.47 sec added.

The PressPoolCar was 3 sec too slow

Total time difference = 4.47 sec

4.47sec x 24 = 107.28 frames

28-24 = 4 x 26.83sec = 107.32 frames

 

This might help out with the previous quote.

The conversion of the original Wiegman film from 24 to 30 fps involved one or the other process.

The second process not included in the graphic involved adding one repeat frame with four progressive ones.

The end result is the same in terms of total frames created.

The total frame count for the Wiegman 36.5sec version = 1096 frames (see graphic-red box).

If you want to convert this back to total frames for a 24fps progressive movie, multiply total frames by (24/30) = .8

1096 x .8 = 876.8 total progressive frames

876.8/ 36.5sec = 24.02 fps

 

[Mark Tyler]

On 11/4/2019 at 6:38 PM, John Butler said:

At first I didn't think much of your project however,  it is coming along well.  Your doing good work and keep it up. 

It will take a bit of time to get everything right, but eventually all of the photos and films should slot into place in the animation sequence.  Once this is done hopefully some of the odd mysteries in the case can be solved, such as how I resolved the timing of the missed shot by synchronizing the witness statements with the positions of the cars in the motorcade.

On 11/4/2019 at 6:38 PM, John Butler said:

The Vice Presidential security vehicle looks like it has just made the turn onto Elm Street and is in the intersection of Elm and Houston.  If it is further down the road as you have placed it then the people on the side walk should appear smaller.  The Vice Presidential vehicle is at best one or at most two white stripes from the SS security vehicle.  It and the VP car is perhaps 2 car lengths from the SS vehicle.  You have it placed further down the street.  This maybe just a matter of visual interpretation on camera angles.  You have it passing the first tree on Elm or more correctly the little island whereas Altgens shows the vehicle before it reaches the tree.

I think this is an optical illusion in the photo which has the effect of compressing the distance on Elm Street.  However the position of the Vice President car and Secret Service follow up car is known at Z133 in the Zapruder film and then Z313 in the Bronson film:

The key to accurate position measurements is having a view perpendicular to the subject and fixed positions to compare to.  Once we have the positions in space, and time we can then measure the average speed.  Finally we can calculate the actor position at any point in time Z133-Z313 using mathematical calculations, such as Z255 when the Altgens photo was taken.

The more films we can measure from, the more accurate the final animation will be.  I'm fairly confident that the animation is correct here due to the exact measurements taken from the above photos and the smooth changes in the car speeds that we see in the video as they accelerated out of the corner.

On 11/4/2019 at 6:38 PM, John Butler said:

You have omitted the Mayor's Car which has Mrs. Dearie Cabell in it.  You have these vehicles, 19 and 20,  stopping in front of the TSBD on Elm Street.  Read Mrs. Cabell's WC testimony and she says exactly where her vehicle stopped.  She said her vehicle stopped in the turn and she was looking directly at the TSBD.

The animation screenshot above is just after David Wiegman has started his run down Elm Street which places it around Z430, by which time the Mayors car has indeed stopped as was mentioned by some of the people in the car.  The confirmation of this is a Wiegman film frame at about Z447 showing the brake lights of the Press Pool car which was forced to stop:

In your animation screenshot above you correctly note that there is no reference to the Mayors car.  This is because the animation only shows references to moving objects which is why "19" does not appear.

Elizabeth Cabell is a very reliable and useful witness.  In the animation I depicted her looking at the TSBD at Z210 with a purple triangle, just after the first shot at Z185.  The Zapruder film tells us exactly where the Mayors car is at Z180 (i.e. beginning its turn onto Elm Street) so we know this position very accurately and as a result we can reject any shot being fired before Z185 (i.e. the mythical early missed shot) because the car hadn't started the turn before this time.

In her testimony she didn't say that the car stopped on the corner, she said that the car was in the process of turning.  The stop didn't happen until they were well onto Elm Street which is proven by the above Wiegman frame.  The cars which did stop on the corner were the 3 camera cars, which is when this photo was taken by Dillard:

https://emuseum.jfk.org/objects/22812/photograph-of-the-texas-school-book-depository-shortly-after

As you can tell by the angle of view, its almost exactly in line with the east side of the TSBD facing the Daltex building.  I have just added this Dillard photo to the animation as per this frame:

In the text box by the clock I mention Jarman, Williams, and Norman as they are in view in the photo blow ups.  Here are two of the three people mentioned:

The important point about this is the timing, as according to his testimony Dillard took this photo in the seconds following the final shot when his car stopped on the corner.  By my calculations this photo was taken about 5 seconds after the third shot (which missed), and 10 seconds after the second shot (the fatal head shot).  In other words he was just a second or two too late catching the assassin making his getaway.

Thanks for raising these questions John, as it proves how useful the animation is in confirming when photos were taken, and also matching witness statements.  This is a very complex crime scene, so having a single point of reference to replay events makes the job of researching this case much easier.

[John Butler]

Mark,

Weigman said in his testimony that the motorcade stopped, at least his part, stopped on Houston.  He exited his vehicle and ran to Elm Street.  For a brief period of time the Mayor's Car was stopped in the turn where it was directly facing the TSBD not further down the street.  That is what Mrs. Cabell said.  I estimate that it took Weigman at least 3 to 5 seconds to reach the Mayor's Car and the intersection.  It could be more.  If my memory serves Weigman heard shots or a shot before he exited his vehicle.  Weigman said: 

“We were in that straight-a-way heading down to what I now know as the Book Depository, (Houston Street comment added) and I heard the first report and I thought like everybody that it was a good size firecracker—a cherry bomb .Then when I heard the second one, the adrenaline really started pumping because there was a reaction in the motorcade, I was sitting on the edge of the (car door) frame, which I sometimes did. I keenly remember right after the incident that my feet were on the ground during one of the reports.
I don’t think I was fast enough to react to the second, but I think on the third one I was running. The car had slowed down enough for me to jump out. I swung my leg over and jumped while the car was still moving, but it was very slow. I jumped and I remember running and I remember the third shot.  When I got out I knew I better get around the corner. The car was  stopping. I’d better run around there and see what was happening."

 

Edited November 6, 2019 by John Butler

[Mark Tyler]

21 hours ago, Chris Davidson said:

The conversion of the original Wiegman film from 24 to 30 fps involved one or the other process.

The second process not included in the graphic involved adding one repeat frame with four progressive ones.

The end result is the same in terms of total frames created.

The total frame count for the Wiegman 36.5sec version = 1096 frames (see graphic-red box).

If you want to convert this back to total frames for a 24fps progressive movie, multiply total frames by (24/30) = .8

1096 x .8 = 876.8 total progressive frames

876.8/ 36.5sec = 24.02 fps

Unfortunately unpicking the broadcast frames to get the original Wiegman frames is a messy affair for the reasons you mention.  The best approach would be to use the original film frames, but I'm not aware of any published source for this.  In fact, even if we did have the original frames we still would not know what the correct frame rate the film was recorded at, so we would have to simply replay the frames at different rates and make a judgement.

The most accurate method to judge film speeds is to compare directly to other films and get a relative speed, which is what you are doing.  Sadly with the gaps in the Bell film, its a rather patchy comparison which may affect the accuracy of the final judgement.

[Mark Tyler]

4 hours ago, John Butler said:

Mark,

Weigman said in his testimony that the motorcade stopped, at least his part, stopped on Houston.  He exited his vehicle and ran to Elm Street.  For a brief period of time the Mayor's Car was stopped in the turn where it was directly facing the TSBD not further down the street.  That is what Mrs. Cabell said.  I estimate that it took Weigman at least 3 to 5 seconds to reach the Mayor's Car and the intersection.  It could be more.  If my memory serves Weigman heard shots or a shot before he exited his vehicle.  Weigman said: 

“We were in that straight-a-way heading down to what I now know as the Book Depository, (Houston Street comment added) and I heard the first report and I thought like everybody that it was a good size firecracker—a cherry bomb .Then when I heard the second one, the adrenaline really started pumping because there was a reaction in the motorcade, I was sitting on the edge of the (car door) frame, which I sometimes did. I keenly remember right after the incident that my feet were on the ground during one of the reports.
I don’t think I was fast enough to react to the second, but I think on the third one I was running. The car had slowed down enough for me to jump out. I swung my leg over and jumped while the car was still moving, but it was very slow. I jumped and I remember running and I remember the third shot.  When I got out I knew I better get around the corner. The car was  stopping. I’d better run around there and see what was happening."

 

I disagree John, there is no evidence of Camera car #1 or the Mayors car stopping on Houston Street in the witness testimony or photos and films.  Both Cabell and Wiegman made comments indicating that the cars only stopped once both had reached Elm Street.

At Z180 the Zapruder film shows the Mayors car just about to start the turn from Houston Street to Elm Street.  A mere 6 seconds later Wiegman starts his film at Z295 and we see the Mayors car just passing the TSBD onto Elm Street.  This means that it was travelling continuously at 7-9 MPH in the 6 seconds between Z180 and Z295 to get from A to B on the map.  Therefore there is not the time for any vehicles to stop in the sequence.

[Chris Davidson]

On 11/5/2019 at 9:18 AM, Chris Davidson said:

This might help out with the previous quote.

The conversion of the original Wiegman film from 24 to 30 fps involved one or the other process.

The second process not included in the graphic involved adding one repeat frame with four progressive ones.

The end result is the same in terms of total frames created.

The total frame count for the Wiegman 36.5sec version = 1096 frames (see graphic-red box).

If you want to convert this back to total frames for a 24fps progressive movie, multiply total frames by (24/30) = .8

1096 x .8 = 876.8 total progressive frames

876.8/ 36.5sec = 24.02 fps

 

Here is a minor clip from Groden after de-interlacing the VOB file.

It is now in the 2:3 pulldown stage. (See info above)

There are 994 total frames in this version.

994 x .8 = 795.2 frames

It is 33.13 seconds long.

795.2/33.13sec = 24fps.