The inevitable end result of our last 56 years

[Sandy Larsen]

It seems to me that if the USA or UN get involved, Putin will know right away that he's going to lose and that he'll not only be imprisoned but will also be put to death for war crimes. Does anybody think the Putin would let that happen without his first ordering a nuclear strike?

So what are the non-nuclear options?

1. Allow the current war to continue and hope that Putin gives up. Maybe he will give up given the high loss rate of his soldiers. And maybe the current sanctions will be painful enough that he will give up sooner rather than later. Maybe.
2. Tighten the sanctions further. This will eventually force Putin to give up. The downsides are that 1) the Russian people will suffer, and 2) Putin might consider the new sanctions to be an act of war. However, it's doubtful Putin would attack NATO countries for their sanctions, as he knows he will lose a wider war and then be put to death for war crimes.
3. Ben's Option: Poland unilaterally gives significant military aid to Ukraine, for example a no fly zone. Putin would declare war on Poland. However, as a NATO country it's doubtful Russia would invade or fire into Poland, as that would invite a war with NATO countries that Putin is sure to lose and then be put to death for war crimes.

I hate to admit this, but it look's like Ben's idea isn't so bad after all. Both #2 -- tightening sanctions -- and #3 -- Polish military aid -- would shorten the war. But Polish military aid wouldn't result in millions of Russians suffering.

Can anybody see flaws in my reasoning here? I know it's a bit simplistic.

 

[Benjamin Cole]

28 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

It seems to me that if the USA or UN get involved, Putin will know right away that he's going to lose and that he'll not only be imprisoned but will also be put to death for war crimes. Does anybody think the Putin would let that happen without his first ordering a nuclear strike?

So what are the non-nuclear options?

1. Allow the current war to continue and hope that Putin gives up. Maybe he will give up given the high loss rate of his soldiers. And maybe the current sanctions will be painful enough that he will give up sooner rather than later. Maybe.
2. Tighten the sanctions further. This will eventually force Putin to give up. The downsides are that 1) the Russian people will suffer, and 2) Putin might consider the new sanctions to be an act of war. However, it's doubtful Putin would attack NATO countries for their sanctions, as he knows he will lose a wider war and then be put to death for war crimes.
3. Ben's Option: Poland unilaterally gives significant military aid to Ukraine, for example a no fly zone. Putin would declare war on Poland. However, as a NATO country it's doubtful Russia would invade or fire into Poland, as that would invite a war with NATO countries that Putin is sure to lose and then be put to death for war crimes.

I hate to admit this, but it look's like Ben's idea isn't so bad after all. Both #2 -- tightening sanctions -- and #3 -- Polish military aid -- would shorten the war. But Polish military aid wouldn't result in millions of Russians suffering.

Can anybody see flaws in my reasoning here? I know it's a bit simplistic.

 

Your conversation may be admirably clear and simple, but not simplistic.  Complicated solutions rarely work. KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid). 

I hate to see Poland out on a limb by itself. But maybe...

Zelensky has asked for 1% of the armor and airplanes Nato has in stock. Maybe if that were transferred to Poland and re-transferred to Ukraine....

The point is dilly-dallying is no longer a humane option, and has not been for weeks. 

It would be nice if Israel shipped some Iron Domes to Ukraine. 

 

[Steve Thomas]

Ukraine has become a graveyard for Russians — and for modern weapons systems

by Lucian K. Truscott IV, Salon April 02, 2022

https://www.rawstory.com/r-2657082991/

“If there is one image that will symbolize forever this war, it will be a blown-up Russian tank, its treads sagging and its turret tilted, rusting by the side of the road in Ukraine.”

 

“But here is the real deal: The NLAW disposable missile costs around $25,000, and the Javelin rocket launcher system costs about $180,000 and fires a missile that costs around $75,000. Both rocket launchers are being used in Ukraine to destroy tanks that cost upwards of $2 million each. The cost differential is obvious. It's even better when you consider the RPG-7, which costs around $1,000 and fires missiles that can cost as little as $100 each. (Costs can go up to as much as $500 for RPG warheads when they use armor piercing or air-burst technology.) Their cost-effectiveness is amazing when you consider that they're being used to knock out Russian APCs costing more than $1 million each. In Iraq, the same RPGs were used by insurgents to bring down American Apache and Blackhawk helicopters that cost between $6 million and $13 million each, depending on the model and year of manufacture.”

“The cost differential between the ground-based Stingers and expensive Russian air force jets is enormous, which is why Russia has failed to achieve air superiority despite its far better equipped air force and army helicopter units. They have been reluctant to put them in the air, knowing Ukrainians with Stingers are waiting for them on the ground.”

Steve Thomas

[Matt Allison]

Poland is NATO. They can't be separated. 

NATO means WW3.

No thank you.

[Douglas Caddy]

 

Biden described Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch as 'one of the most dangerous men in the world', a new book says (msn.com)

[Sandy Larsen]

43 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

Poland is NATO. They can't be separated. 

NATO means WW3.

No thank you.

 

Matt,

Put yourself in Putin's shoes for a moment:

Poland establishes a no fly zone. You want your military to strike back at Poland. You know that if they do, NATO countries are obligated to respond. And WW3 begins.

You know that you would lose this fight. (All of NATO against Russia.)  You know that you would be imprisoned, tried for war crimes, and then put to death. Either that or everybody would die in a nuclear holocaust.

Your other option is to find a way out of the war and live.

Do you really believe that Putin would choose to die?

 

[Pat Speer]

We should probably view Ukraine as an extension of the Cold War. And by that I mean, as with the U.S. in South East Asia, and Russia in Afghanistan, Russia will eventually decide it's time to leave. A lot of people today forget that Vietnam won the   war while actually losing the majority of the battles. The U.S.and South Vietnamese Government resolve to win was just not strong enough to overcome a constant flow of young Vietnamese soldiers, not to mention the weapons and advisers coming in from China and Russia. The U.S. then turned the tables in Afghanistan. It looks like the same could come true in Ukraine. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight and the west is willing to keep them in a constant supply of small arms and missiles, this will probably drag on. The smart move by Putin would be to take a few of the disputed areas, claim he'd "liberated" them, and tell the Russian people it was all worth it to hold off the advance of Nazism, or some such thing. He then gets to retain power, and the illusion of brilliance he's worked so hard to project. 

At this point, it appears that his master plan of reuniting Ukraine with Russia is doomed to failure. He can win, of course, by upping the ante, but the price would probably be too high, and, much like England after the World Wars, its claims to empire would be crushed. 

[W. Niederhut]

30 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

 

Matt,

Put yourself in Putin's shoes for a moment:

Poland establishes a no fly zone. You want your military to strike back at Poland. You know that if they do, NATO countries are obligated to respond. And WW3 begins.

You know that you would lose this fight. (All of NATO against Russia.)  You know that you would be imprisoned, tried for war crimes, and then put to death. Either that or everybody would die in a nuclear holocaust.

Your other option is to find a way out of the war and live.

Do you really believe that Putin would choose to die?

 

Sandy,

     From what I know about Putin's narcissism and Russia's long history with Poland, I believe that any military intervention against the Russian Federation by the Poles would end in utter disaster-- provoking unfathomable rage and reaction in the Kremlin. 

     If you study Putin's behavior in recent years, he has frequently made threats (to Trump, according to Fiona Hill) and bragged about his indefensible hypersonic nuclear missiles.   He seems grandiose and "trigger happy."

    The man is unhinged, IMO.  His failures in Ukraine have only aggravated the problem.

    It would be foolish to further bait such a narcissistically wounded bear.

[W. Niederhut]

Addendum:  A few psychological details about Putin.   His older brother died during the horrific N-a-z-i siege and bombardment of Leningrad during WWII.  Imagine the formative influence that his mother's PTSD must have had on young Vlad.  (A common issue for children born after the death of an older sibling.) During Putin's childhood, the city of Leningrad, including Tsarskoe Selo, were literally reconstructed from the rubble.

Subsequently, Putin spent his entire career in the KGB running anti-NATO ops from Dresden during the gradual dissolution and collapse of Soviet hegemony in the GDR and Eastern Europe.  He must have experienced the collapse of the USSR as a bitter disappointment.

Oliver Stone and Peter Kuznick did an admirable job in their Untold History series of describing the impact of WWI and WWII on Russian attitudes toward Germany and Eastern Europe.  JFK had also acknowledged this aspect of Russian history in his negotiations with Khrushchev.

Since the era of Napoleon, Russians have tended to view Poland (and, formerly, East Prussia) as a corridor for Western European invasions of Mother Russia.

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by W. Niederhut

[Sandy Larsen]

1 hour ago, W. Niederhut said:

Sandy,

     From what I know about Putin's narcissism and Russia's long history with Poland, I believe that any military intervention against the Russian Federation by the Poles would end in utter disaster-- provoking unfathomable rage and reaction in the Kremlin. 

     If you study Putin's behavior in recent years, he has frequently made threats (to Trump, according to Fiona Hill) and bragged about his indefensible hypersonic nuclear missiles.   He seems grandiose and "trigger happy."

    The man is unhinged, IMO.  His failures in Ukraine have only aggravated the problem.

    It would be foolish to further bait such a narcissistically wounded bear.

 

W,

So you believe that Putin would attack Poland knowing that this would in all probability lead to his death? In other words, you think that he is or would become irrational?

Or do you think that he could possibly believe that he could beat NATO?

 

[W. Niederhut]

5 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

 

W,

So you believe that Putin would attack Poland knowing that this would in all probability lead to his death? In other words, you think that he is or would become irrational?

Or do you think that he could possibly believe that he could beat NATO?

 

Sandy,

      A Russian nuclear war with NATO would be unwinnable, but my hunch is that Putin would respond to any Polish (and German/NATO) military aggression against Russia with rage.  Would he, possibly, nuke Europe out of spite?  I wonder.  Look at what he has already done in response to Ukrainian resistance!

      Who foresaw the mass bombing of entire residential communities in Ukraine -- apartment buildings, hospitals, theaters, and schools?  It has been utterly irrational-- serving no constructive purpose.  It's analogous to what Hitler did to Warsaw, Belgrade, and Putin's native city of  Leningrad.  (And Hitler also wanted to destroy Paris out of spite, when he knew that the Third Reich was doomed.)

     

    

    

    

     

[Benjamin Cole]

10 hours ago, Steve Thomas said:

Ukraine has become a graveyard for Russians — and for modern weapons systems

by Lucian K. Truscott IV, Salon April 02, 2022

https://www.rawstory.com/r-2657082991/

“If there is one image that will symbolize forever this war, it will be a blown-up Russian tank, its treads sagging and its turret tilted, rusting by the side of the road in Ukraine.”

 

“But here is the real deal: The NLAW disposable missile costs around $25,000, and the Javelin rocket launcher system costs about $180,000 and fires a missile that costs around $75,000. Both rocket launchers are being used in Ukraine to destroy tanks that cost upwards of $2 million each. The cost differential is obvious. It's even better when you consider the RPG-7, which costs around $1,000 and fires missiles that can cost as little as $100 each. (Costs can go up to as much as $500 for RPG warheads when they use armor piercing or air-burst technology.) Their cost-effectiveness is amazing when you consider that they're being used to knock out Russian APCs costing more than $1 million each. In Iraq, the same RPGs were used by insurgents to bring down American Apache and Blackhawk helicopters that cost between $6 million and $13 million each, depending on the model and year of manufacture.”

“The cost differential between the ground-based Stingers and expensive Russian air force jets is enormous, which is why Russia has failed to achieve air superiority despite its far better equipped air force and army helicopter units. They have been reluctant to put them in the air, knowing Ukrainians with Stingers are waiting for them on the ground.”

Steve Thomas

Interesting. Perhaps the US should R&D slightly better but still very cheap RPGs....

 

[Benjamin Cole]

7 hours ago, Sandy Larsen said:

 

W,

So you believe that Putin would attack Poland knowing that this would in all probability lead to his death? In other words, you think that he is or would become irrational?

Or do you think that he could possibly believe that he could beat NATO?

 

Lots of bad options. 

Is the present option---watch Ukraine being reduced to rubble, and any number of civilians slaughtered---the best of bad options?

Of course, no one really knows. But in interview after interview, people who have worked with Putin say he only responds to force. 

The pre-invasion Biden declarations of no boots on the ground, of no no fly zone and offers to spirit Zelensky out of Ukraine were escalatory. Biden bungled badly. 

More forceful interdiction by Western powers might actually be de-escalatory. 

Putin, sensing his entire military will be bogged down and ultimately wiped out, might withdraw.

Poland is right there, right on the frontlines, and accepting millions of refugees. They are calling for heavier interdiction. If Poland says so...makes sense to me. 

 

[Matt Allison]

If the question is this: "Is Putin irrational enough to initiate what is essentially a murder-suicide situation?", I believe the answer to be, unequivocally, yes.

And it's certainly not one that a responsible leader would ever risk a bet on.

Gonna need a different path.

[Douglas Caddy]

I agree with him.

 

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