Dealey Plaza - No grand unified theory

[Denny Zartman]

Unless I'm mistaken, the LN's don't really have a unified theory either. They've never been able to say definitively which shot missed, what caused the missed shot, or even if any shot missed. I've debated LN's who seem to imply the injury to Tague could have been caused by a fragment.

[Mark Tyler]

19 hours ago, Joe Bauer said:

With the last two being so close together, there was no way a shooter could get a bolt action rifle to work that fast.

I agree Joe, based on the firing tests Oswald couldn't have fired twice in less than two seconds (or even 3 seconds if he aimed the gun), so any witness reporting that kind of rapid fire must be referring to at least two gunmen.

[Mark Tyler]

16 hours ago, Benjamin Cole said:

As mentioned by others, you have some confusing possibilities.

1. A relatively quiet weapon. 

2. The speed of sound is ~1,125 feet per second. To state the obvious, if a witness is ~140 feet from one weapon, but ~280 feet from a second weapon,  and the first weapon is fired ~1/8th of second after the second weapon, the witness will honestly hear one shot. 

3. Echoes.

4. What is interesting is that some witnesses right outside the TSBD, standing side-by-side by others, heard shots from the Grassy Knoll area, while others thought the shots came from above. 

For me, the key has been that so many witnesses (including veterans and cops) smelled telltale gunsmoke in the Dealey Plaza, down by the Grassy Knoll, in the immediate aftermath of the JFKA. Ergo, there was gunfire in the immediate region. 

I agree, the audio aspects of the gunshots is somewhat confusing for the witnesses to know exactly what really happened.  With so many witnesses in different positions in a fair sized area with tall buildings nearby, it's not surprising we get so many different witness reports.  It's not that the witnesses were wrong as such, but that they were simply reporting what the sound waves were doing in different regions of Dealey Plaza.

[Mark Tyler]

15 hours ago, Tony Krome said:

Hickey regarding the last two shots: "such rapid succession that there seemed to be practically no time element between them"

Kellerman  regarding the flurry: "You have heard the sound barrier, of a plane breaking the sound barrier, bang, bang? That is it."

Landis actually heard the flurry (when the "President's head split open") as one shot, which gives us an idea how close together they were.

Bennett said the second shot of the flurry "followed immediately"

McIntyre said the last two shots were in "quick succession".

In other words, from the location of above SS agents, the sound-waves from two different weapons hit their eardrums almost simultaneously, or a single weapon that could rapid fire in very quick order. But since other earwitnesses from different parts of the plaza heard more of a gap in the flurry, the odds are that there were two different weapons in two different locations.

Both McIntyre and Landis said it was 5 seconds between the first sound they heard and the last sound they heard.

There were a large number of witnesses who described two shots around the head shot.  If two shots were fired within a second of each other I suspect it would be difficult for a witness to know whether the Z313 shot was the first or the second in the sequence (what with the bullet travelling faster than the speed of sound over several hundred feet).

[Mark Tyler]

9 hours ago, Andrej Stancak said:

I can confirm that the delay in response to a noxious impact to the skin (not mentioning the  impact of a gunshot) of 2 seconds is an order longer than the electrophysiological data in healthy humans. A noxious stimulus impacting the skin will cause a brain response within 200 ms (actually the first cortical response can be seen as early as 140-160 ms) and an involuntary motor response to noxious impact occurs in about the same latency (around 200 ms or shorter). This early response is called the motor withdrawal reaction and it is mediated by the spinal cord. Thus, if there was an abrupt motion artefact in Zapruder film and a visible motor response occurred only 2 seconds later, we speak about two shots of which the first perhaps missed.

Thanks for the info Andrej.  When I look at the Z-film, JFK and Connally seem to first start reacting to being hit at frame Z225, so working backwards they must have started to physically react immediate after Z224 was exposed.  200 ms is about 3-4 frames so I would estimate the latest a bullet impact could occur to be Z220-Z221.  The demeanor of JFK and Connally in the few frames before Z225 seems roughly what it was when they went behind the sign so I doubt there was an earlier bullet impact on the victims.

The massive blurs during Z190-Z210 of the Z-film are also matched by Phil Willis who said he heard the first shot and immediately snapped his photo, which we know to be exactly Z202.  While witness evidence is of course somewhat unreliable on it's own, taken together with the Willis photo and Z-film I think this is the best crime scene evidence of conspiracy I have so far studied.  This curious two second delay was also mentioned by John Connally as the time gap between the shot he heard and when he was first hit:

While this isn't a cast iron proof by any means, I do struggle to see any other obvious explanation other than the first audible shot was fired circa Z185 and missed the victims, with the second shot being fired circa Z220 and hit both JFK and Connally.  Two shots fired in two seconds means two gunmen (as conspiracy believers say), with the single bullet theory happening just before Z225 (as lone nut believers say).  It's a hybrid theory with elements from both sides of the debate!

[Mark Tyler]

3 hours ago, Denny Zartman said:

Unless I'm mistaken, the LN's don't really have a unified theory either. They've never been able to say definitively which shot missed, what caused the missed shot, or even if any shot missed. I've debated LN's who seem to imply the injury to Tague could have been caused by a fragment.

Indeed Denny, the only unified aspect of the lone nut side of the debate is that they reflexively reject all evidence that doesn't support their theory!  I have heard it suggested that the Tague wounding was related to a fragment from the head shot bullet.  With a fragment having hit the chrome topping, it's certainly possible that another fragment flew slightly higher and passed over the windshield.

The early missed shot makes no sense to me whatsoever.  If the target was missed slightly then fair enough, but to completely miss the limo seems to suggest either incompetence or a deliberate miss (such as a decoy).

[Tony Krome]

1 hour ago, Mark Tyler said:

There were a large number of witnesses who described two shots around the head shot.  If two shots were fired within a second of each other I suspect it would be difficult for a witness to know whether the Z313 shot was the first or the second in the sequence (what with the bullet travelling faster than the speed of sound over several hundred feet).

Hickey discerned between the two rapid fire shots, he said the first of the rapid shots disturbed JFK's hair, the second impacted his head.

[Joe Bauer]

Did not one member of the press in the cars behind the presidential limo have any sound recording device operating when they got to the Houston Street turn off from Main?  Something they could have been talking into like a tape recorder?

Except for a left open motorcycle radio transmitter, we have not one sound recording device going in or near Dealey Plaza while JFK was being driven through?

[Tony Krome]

44 minutes ago, Joe Bauer said:

Did not one member of the press in the cars behind the presidential limo have any sound recording device operating when they got to the Houston Street turn off from Main?  Something they could have been talking into like a tape recorder?

Except for a left open motorcycle radio transmitter, we have not one sound recording device going in or near Dealey Plaza while JFK was being driven through?

"At 12:29, the microphone again stuck open and remained open for more than five minutes."

Very unfortunate timing. If not for the stuck mike, there could have been a Channel 1 transmission in the Plaza that captured the clear sequence of sounds. Nothing left to chance.

[Joe Bauer]

Did Roger Craig ever describe his take of the shot sequence?

I know he was not actually in Dealey Plaza when they were fired, but right around the corner on Main.

And Craig did say he heard the "reports."

How about the many press men in the motorcade?  Did any of them describe a sequence of the shots?

Edited May 3, 2021 by Joe Bauer

[Tony Krome]

32 minutes ago, Joe Bauer said:

Did Roger Craig ever describe his take of the shot sequence?

His was bang ... about 3 second pause .... bang ... 2 second or less pause ... bang

Mr. BELIN - And what about between the second and third?
Mr. CRAIG - Not more than 2 seconds. It was--they were real rapid. 

Different part of the plaza, he heard a longer gap in the flurry than the SS agents. Possibly means he was closer to one flurry shooter than the other as compared to the SS agents.

Note: Craig has the total time span (approx 5 seconds) as the SS agents;

Both McIntyre and Landis said it was 5 seconds between the first sound they heard and the last sound they heard.

 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Tony Krome

[Mark Tyler]

21 hours ago, Tony Krome said:

Hickey discerned between the two rapid fire shots, he said the first of the rapid shots disturbed JFK's hair, the second impacted his head.

Indeed, which is interesting considering how in the Zapruder and Muchmore films the hair was disturbed during the explosion at Z313 and not before.  Hickey said the last shot caused JFK to move forward and to his left, which seems to be what we see in the Z-film after Z330.

David Powers mentioned that JFK was hit by the first shot and he moved to his left (as we see in the Z-film after Z225).  After the second shot he said shot Connally seemed to disappear, which could be near Z300 when he collapsed onto his wife.  Finally Powers said the third shot hit JFK in the head which is presumably Z313.

These two witnesses are typical of the disagreement about the head shot, and indicate that some think the first shot of the pair was Z313, with the final shot circa Z330.  Others heard something around Z300, with the final shot being Z313.  There is some room for interpretation with all of these statements, but the rapidity of these two shots is the most crucial point as it requires a second gunman (and is consistent with dozens of other witness statements).

Several of the guys in the SS follow up car described the total duration of the shots to be 5-6 seconds which is about Z200-Z310 and matches the Z-film events fairly well (or possibly Z230-Z340).

[Ron Bulman]

9 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

Indeed, which is interesting considering how in the Zapruder and Muchmore films the hair was disturbed during the explosion at Z313 and not before.  Hickey said the last shot caused JFK to move forward and to his left, which seems to be what we see in the Z-film after Z330.

David Powers mentioned that JFK was hit by the first shot and he moved to his left (as we see in the Z-film after Z225).  After the second shot he said shot Connally seemed to disappear, which could be near Z300 when he collapsed onto his wife.  Finally Powers said the third shot hit JFK in the head which is presumably Z313.

These two witnesses are typical of the disagreement about the head shot, and indicate that some think the first shot of the pair was Z313, with the final shot circa Z330.  Others heard something around Z300, with the final shot being Z313.  There is some room for interpretation with all of these statements, but the rapidity of these two shots is the most crucial point as it requires a second gunman (and is consistent with dozens of other witness statements).

Several of the guys in the SS follow up car described the total duration of the shots to be 5-6 seconds which is about Z200-Z310 and matches the Z-film events fairly well (or possibly Z230-Z340).

"The rapidity of these two shots".  If one believes Dr. Mantik it was three shots. Dr. Chesser leans toward three based on two points.  Doug Horne of the ARRB medical investigation agrees with Dr. Mantik.  These shots had to be within split seconds of each other.  Synchronized.

[Chuck Schwartz]

I agree, Ron. 3 shots ( 2 hit in front and 1 probably from the rear). All shots hit within a few seconds of each other. 

[Mark Tyler]

14 hours ago, Ron Bulman said:

"The rapidity of these two shots".  If one believes Dr. Mantik it was three shots. Dr. Chesser leans toward three based on two points.  Doug Horne of the ARRB medical investigation agrees with Dr. Mantik.  These shots had to be within split seconds of each other.  Synchronized.

Another name for this list would be Josiah Thompson who explored the possibility of two head shots in his recent book "Last Second In Dallas", and concluded that the shape of JFK's head seems to change around Z330 in the Zapruder which suggests a second shot hitting near that point.

Sadly the autopsy was so flawed it's hard to be 100% certain of anything regarding the head shot.  This cuts both ways of course, so not only is it impossible to prove multiple shots, it's equally impossible to prove just a single shot hit the victim.

Judging from the damage to the windshield and chrome topping, at least one shot came from the rear, with the bullet breaking up after hitting the victim and parts of it ending up on the limo floor.