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JFKA Forum Journals of the Plague Year?


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16 minutes ago, Ron Bulman said:

400,000 dead by the end of the year, but we've turned the corner.  Texas and California will surpass New York by New Years.  "All this will soon be behind us".

 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/contrary-to-trump-s-assurance-the-u-s-isn-t-rounding-the-corner-on-the-coronavirus/ar-BB18JIek?li=BBnbcA1

Ron,

     We can file this one under "toxic positivity"-- one of the more interesting characteristics of Trump's family of origin described by Mary Trump.  Fred Trump, Sr. never tolerated screw ups or honest acknowledgement of mistakes.  Trump's childhood schoolmates have noted that he could never admit that he was wrong-- even when it was painfully obvious to his teachers and classmates.

     There are, obviously, some benefits to focusing on the positive, but there is also a down side -- especially when a relentless focus on the positive is part of a denial of a problem that need to be acknowledged-- e.g., COVID-19, atherosclerosis, left frontal cortical strokes, etc.  🤥

     This tendency in Trump also seems to be integral to his cult-like idealization by his fans, who continue to steadfastly dismiss the evidence of his felonious conduct.   As he said in 2016, "I could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a single voter."

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On 9/5/2020 at 12:14 PM, W. Niederhut said:

   My wife and I are up in Estes Park this month, and I have been pleasantly surprised to see that almost everyone is wearing a mask on the hiking trails in Rocky Mountain National Park.  One notable exception was a portly couple we crossed paths with yesterday who were both wearing TRUMP 2020 T-shirts.  I felt unusually annoyed, but resisted the temptation to make a snide remark.

     When we got up to the Alpine Center on Trail Ridge Road yesterday, we could see columns of smoke billowing from the Cameron Peak forest fire a few miles away.   Creepy.

We came to Colorado in part to cool off from 100 degree days in Texas.  Coming into Salida I couldn't believe the car thermometer said 99.  My wife checked he phone.  Yep.  Then the car clicked 100.  I heard it was a record for the date on the radio.  A little cooler today up in the mountains today.

I hiked the Colorado Trail for about 100 yards today right below Mount Shavano, wife waiting in the car, couldn't go with planar fasciitis. 

Plague wise people visiting the ghost town of St. Elmo were masking only 1/4-1/3 but staying apart walking around.  But the chipmunk crossing was a disaster.  20-30 people, several kids, were gathered around feeding the little boogers, not a mask in site.  Didn't go there.

The weather is nuts.  90 again tomorrow then down to 38 tomorrow night.  90% chance of snow on Tuesday with a high of 40.  Low Tuesday night of 24 with a 80% chance of snow.  That's in Salida.  I'm supposed to go over Monarch pass Wednesday morning, that's 4300 feet higher.  Warm highway melts snow.  Then it freezes.

Edited by Ron Bulman
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In February, US Covid guru Anthony Fauci predicted the virus was ‘akin to a severe flu’ and would therefore kill around 0.1 percent of people. Then fatality rate predictions were somehow mixed up to make it look ten times WORSE.

When you strip everything else out, the reason for lockdown comes from a single figure: one percent. This was the prediction that Covid, if left unchecked, would kill around one percent of us.

You may not think that percentage is enormous, but one percent of the population of the world is 70 million people – and that’s a lot. It would mean 3.2 million Americans dead, and 670,000 Britons. (Full article Linked above.)

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Ron Bulman said:

We came to Colorado in part to cool off from 100 degree days in Texas.  Coming into Salida I couldn't believe the car thermometer said 99.  My wife checked he phone.  Yep.  Then the car clicked 100.  I heard it was a record for the date on the radio.  A little cooler today up in the mountains today.

I hiked the Colorado Trail for about 100 yards today right below Mount Shavano, wife waiting in the car, couldn't go with planar fasciitis. 

Plague wise people visiting the ghost town of St. Elmo were masking only 1/4-1/3 but staying apart walking around.  But the chipmunk crossing was a disaster.  20-30 people, several kids, were gathered around feeding the little boogers, not a mask in site.  Didn't go there.

The weather is nuts.  90 again tomorrow then down to 38 tomorrow night.  90% chance of snow on Tuesday with a high of 40.  Low Tuesday night of 24 with a 80% chance of snow.  That's in Salida.  I'm supposed to go over Monarch pass Wednesday morning, that's 4300 feet higher.  Warm highway melts snow.  Then it freezes.

          We had to evacuate Estes Park/Rocky Mountain National Park yesterday afternoon because of the smoke from the Cameron Peak forest fire.   Trail Ridge Road was closed at 3 PM yesterday, and the fire is now burning the northern perimeter of RMNP.   The creepiest part was driving down Highway 34 through the heavy smoke in Lyons and Longmont, Colorado.  It was like a scene from the Apocalypse.

          Highs in the 90s forecast for smoky Denver this afternoon, followed by six inches of snow tonight!

          Thomas Friedman has accurately called this, "Global Weirding."  It's weird.

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On 9/5/2020 at 5:18 AM, Bill Fite said:

I agree.

I had been waiting quite a while for the US to release the mortality stats covering the CV pandemic.

The best estimate for total CV related deaths would be the difference between the observed deaths and the expected (average) deaths over the time frame.  CV can cause death directly or indirectly by using health-care resources like ICUs.

The results are not good:

source:  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/12/us/covid-deaths-us.html

"Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus."

(Very good plots by region and state at link)

Additionally, I run a plot from time to time to check the US death rate per million population with some other countries for comparison.  The data is from https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus.  There is no excuse for the USA's performance.

image.png.e3c0afbc46c373196055abafc2dd9fec.png

"There is no excuse for the USA's performance."

Sure there is. You just have to get past the Social Media Censors.

 

 

plot1ax.svg

Edited by Robert Wheeler
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121 degrees in Woodland Hills just North of Los Angeles yesterday. Highest temperature ever recorded there.

115 in Hollister, CA ( location of the early Marlon Brando film "The Wild Ones") yesterday. 111 in Morgan Hill. 112 in Big Sur Saturday. 111 in Sacramento Saturday.

Heat wave in Kansas right now as well.

Death Valley, CA will reach 125 today.

You could literally fry eggs on sidewalks and car hoods here in California this weekend. Grapes left out would be raisins in 3 days.

Road kill mummified.

Check out the newsreel footage of the 200 campers trapped in surrounding fire at Big Bear Lake California and rescued by huge helicopters. They had to leave their vehicles behind!

And here on the Monterey Peninsula, the cities closed all their beaches this weekend!

They feared too many people would flock there and ignore social distancing. They even blocked off all the parking above the beaches!

HEY, the beaches are not "owned" by the cities! They are "public" spaces, owned by every citizen.

With this suffocating heat wave, thousands ( especially families with children ) have only one place to find cool breeze relief...the beaches.

Up here, no out of the ordinary Covid outbreaks have been documented from beach visiting. We don't have the crowds of L.A.

This is the first time I have flat out disagreed with government over-reactions to the Covid situation.

At least let suffering thousands take advantage of the fresh, cool ( and clean virus free ) air the beaches provide.

 

Edited by Joe Bauer
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1 hour ago, Joe Bauer said:

121 degrees in Woodland Hills just North of Los Angeles yesterday. Highest temperature ever recorded there.

115 in Hollister, CA ( location of the early Marlon Brando film "The Wild Ones") yesterday. 111 in Morgan Hill. 112 in Big Sur Saturday. 111 in Sacramento Saturday.

Heat wave in Kansas right now as well.

Death Valley, CA will reach 125 today.

You could literally fry eggs on sidewalks and car hoods here in California this weekend. Grapes left out would be raisins in 3 days.

Road kill mummified.

Check out the newsreel footage of the 200 campers trapped in surrounding fire at Big Bear Lake California and rescued by huge helicopters. They had to leave their vehicles behind!

And here on the Monterey Peninsula, the cities closed all their beaches this weekend!

They feared too many people would flock there and ignore social distancing. They even blocked off all the parking above the beaches!

HEY, the beaches are not "owned" by the cities! They are "public" spaces, owned by every citizen.

With this suffocating heat wave, thousands ( especially families with children ) have only one place to find cool breeze relief...the beaches.

Up here, no out of the ordinary Covid outbreaks have been documented from beach visiting. We don't have the crowds of L.A.

This is the first time I have flat out disagreed with government over-reactions to the Covid situation.

At least let suffering thousands take advantage of the fresh, cool ( and clean virus free ) air the beaches provide.

 

Amen, Joe. These lockdowns are the result of little tyrants flexing their power over the common man. I'll bet you Newsom is nice and cool somewhere today. Remember this during voting time, whether it be for local dog catcher, council member, governor or president.

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8 minutes ago, Ty Carpenter said:

Amen, Joe. These lockdowns are the result of little tyrants flexing their power over the common man. I'll bet you Newsom is nice and cool somewhere today. Remember this during voting time, whether it be for local dog catcher, council member, governor or president.

Ty, I agree with much of the lockdown program.

However, here our fresh ocean air beaches were providing cooling physical relief and clearly calming "psychological" stress relief for tens of thousands of people, many driving over 100 miles from inner state cities like Stockton, Modesto, etc...to give their families this needed relief.

Our beaches are big enough to provide much distancing.

Shutting them down during this incredibly stressful time of heat waves and massive fires is wrong imo.

I have seen pictures of L.A. area beaches where it seemed hundreds of thousands were congregating. Different situation by far here with one tenth that amount.

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11 minutes ago, Joe Bauer said:

Shutting them down during this incredibly stressful time of heat waves and massive fires is wrong imo.

In a deep underground bunker, somewhere in the Rockies, a little red LED starts flashing. A corporal points to the bank of blinking lights and yells out, "Colonel, I think we are losing Joe."

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13 hours ago, W. Niederhut said:

          We had to evacuate Estes Park/Rocky Mountain National Park yesterday afternoon because of the smoke from the Cameron Peak forest fire.   Trail Ridge Road was closed at 3 PM yesterday, and the fire is now burning the northern perimeter of RMNP.   The creepiest part was driving down Highway 34 through the heavy smoke in Lyons and Longmont, Colorado.  It was like a scene from the Apocalypse.

          Highs in the n90s forecast for smoky Denver this afternoon, followed by six inches of snow tonight!

          Thomas Friedman has accurately called this, "Global Weirding."  It's weird.

The mountains were surreal today.  Outlines as you approached them.  From Salida to Buena Vista over Cottonwood Pass, Taylor Park, Crested Bute.  I think it's smoke coming from this fire 100 miles to the west.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/pine-gulch-fire-largest-fire-in-colorado-history/ar-BB17sf5d?ocid=uxbndlbing

I'd say 80-90% of people along main street in Crested Butte (one lane/one way)were masking and social distancing.  Not crowded but a lot of people out.

The amount of traffic coming out out of Taylor Park/CB over Cottonwood pass was astounding.

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1 hour ago, W. Niederhut said:

Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Is Now Linked to More Than 250,000 Coronavirus Cases

One study estimates the public health cost of the super-spreading event is near $12 billion.

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/09/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-is-now-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases/

Excellent point WN.

Their fun get together with no social distancing and mostly without masks cost the rest of us a massive amount.

This economic cost reality should be brought out more in the overall debate.

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2 hours ago, W. Niederhut said:

Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Is Now Linked to More Than 250,000 Coronavirus Cases

One study estimates the public health cost of the super-spreading event is near $12 billion.

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/09/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-is-now-linked-to-more-than-250000-coronavirus-cases/

Even fox news acknowledged this, 20% of new cases in August traced to Sturgis.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-linked-to-20-of-us-coronavirus-cases-in-august-researchers/ar-BB18PcTl?li=BBorjTa

32 degrees and snowing in Salida.

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