Andrej Stancak

Besides my concerns about Shelley and Lovelady and the presence of power supply in the front of the building, there is also a question of the assassins' exit from the building. John suggests they exited the lift on the first floor. How could they be certain that they would not be seen by people standing close to the lift? They could not know who would stand there, this was beyond their control. No assassin would agree to a venture with uncertain escape. Further, how could they restore the wooden floor from below the floor - there would be certain signs that the wooden floor was tempered with, e.g. missing nails or similar.

David: my odds ratio is preliminary, just to illustrate where it would be now with existing matches as they are known. The method is straightforward - calculation of conditioned probability with multiple features. For instance, Prayer Man was a white Caucasian as was Lee Oswlad, The probability of being white Caucasian in Dallas in 1963 was 0.86 as 14% of the population were other races. Of course, there are features which are more difficult to estiimate (e.g., the probability of Prayer Man and Lee having the same shape of hairline) and for those it will be more correct to use a range of probabilities rather than a single probability value. Once finished, I would post the probability figures for everyone to check.

François: no reasons for leaving. This is far the best JFK Forum with some great experts and writers on board, and outside is just misery. Your views are appreciated as they put real demands on people to answer. If it helps you, I have been already reprimanded by one of the moderators for recommending one past member to seek psychiatric help, and I had to apologise. The debates are sometimes heated and not every joke is good. Just take some rest and consider resuming when you feel like. Take care.

I saw a few similar overlays of Lee Harvey Oswald's heads onto Prayer Man, however, yours appears to show the best match. I do not know how much enhancements were put into it.

David: The top picture is the same or very, very similar to what I use. The one you posted previously shows Prayer Man with eyes which I was never ever able to see or achieve in the original pictures or enhancements made using original pictures. David Joseph's projection of Lee Oswald's hairline on Prayer Man shows an excellent match, would you agree? The identity of Prayer Man as Lee Oswald is in probability terms unless clear facial features will pop up after a high-res copy shows them. However, with the matches listed in my previous post, a preliminary probability estimate in terms of odds ratio comes to about 1:700,000 (this figure may still change as different features are being added or withdrawn). This would be the odds that any random person would show the same matches with Prayer Man as Lee Harvey Oswald. 1:700,000 is the chance of dying due to being hit by a meteorite. The number of inhabitants in Dallas in 1963 was about 670,000.

Gary: I have downloaded your Volume 1 and had a chance to scroll through some of the chapters. This work appears complete and unusually well researched and documented. Would there still be a chance to maybe publish it as a book, even if as a Kindle book? It is a great achievement and a published book would be an appropriate way to crown your great effort. I will read your book with great interest. Thanks for giving us chance to read.

Many things are possible. However, besides seeing lights in the front part of the building where the 1st floor lift was, the assumed roles of co-conspirators Bill Shelley and Billy Lovelady defies me. I always understood that Shelley and Lovelady had left the steps after the shooting and before returning to the building, they went to the island infront of the building and maybe even walked in direction to railroad tracks, and only then returned to the building. This information is both in their Warren Commission testimonies, and it has been confirmed by Buell Wesley Frazier in one of his interviews - he saw them on the steps after the shooting and witnessed how they went out to that island. I would also not interprete Vicki Adams' description she gave to Barry Ernest as confirming that these two men were in the back of the building when she reached the 1st floor. She only saw one Afro-American men there. She actually denied seeing these two men when she reached the firts floor. Am I missing something?

Tony: averaging images would help if the problem would be a random digital noise which could be cancelled by averaging. Unfortunately, the random noise is not the problem in Darnell, it is the motion blur waht makes problem. Motion blur unlike random noise deforms objects in specific directions and therefore, averaging would only strengthen the problem. Darnell should be motion-blur corrected, however, the present film quality - to my layman eye - does not make this possible. I am not an expert in removing motion blur in films. A great expert could maybe accomplish it with the current version. The frame we use, fortunately, has a minimal motion blur.

We will see about it. I am sure we can do a lot for clarifying the possibility of Lee Oswald being Prayer Man even with the versions of Darnell available now, and even more if a high-resolution copy of Darnell film will be available to researchers. I would not recommend using the copy of Darnell's still which pops up after hitting the link in your message. I am afraid this version is already a processed image in which the contrasts have been increased. My preferred Darnell images are those obtained by disassembling Darnell film into individual frames.

David: there were two phono calls. The earlier phone call, I gather, happened after Marina received a pack of Darnell and Wiegman stills which apparenly also contained Barnebei sketches, and Ed and Marina went through the sketch while having other Darnell and Wiegman photographs around. It was at that point when Marina confirmed "J" person to be Lee. There was no association with Altgens6 during the first conversation. The second phone call was the one which was recorded. Marina was not well, she did not read Prayer Man book but she browsed through the book and realised she might not be able to understand because there were too many characters mentioned in the book, and she felt that was too much on her. Those having grandparents around their 80th year of life would understand right away what was the problem. She clearly was a bit confused at that moment and mentioned Lovelady and came back in her mind to Algens6 which picture she had seen many times. However, she did not think that she was identifying from Altgens6, she gave her approval to something which has been discussed during the first conversation, and that was Darnell' Prayer Man. Ed is a member on this forum and can shed more light on the problem. I may not interpret the course of events accurately as I was not the one making the calls.

François: my point 7 is both strong and interesting. Our posture, the way how we stand, how we position our feet arms, and how we tilt the head is hardwired in our brains. You may have seen the famous movie "Forrest Gump" with Tom Hanks. Forrest had a specific way how he tilted his head to one side, and his little son did the same. Posture is determined by motor programs in the oldest parts of the brain - basal ganglia and reticular formation (linked to the vestibular system) - and individual aspects of posture will manifest especially when we are distracted. If a neurologist wants to provoke a reflex on a patient, the doctor may ask patient to make some simple arithmetic counting or connect the fingers of both hands and pull them forecefully apart (Jendrassik manouvre). That keeps the patient's conscious brain busy and the old motor reflex programs can be tested. Prayer Man clearly was thinking, pondering what to do next. He did not even watch what is going on at Tripple Underpass as the rest of doorway occupants did. It would be a lousy decision to watch the motorcade from that spot anyway, you would take that spot only of there would not be a better spot which would not obstruct view of another person, for instance when you come to the doorway too late and all good spots have been taken already. Thus, Prayer Man shows his natural stance. I have analysed Darnell picture and Prayer Man' s stance for almost 4 years now, and posted during this time a number of pictures revealing similarity between Prayer Man's stance and Lee' stance. Please find here one of them. It has been made with the old mannequin which was not modelled according to realistic body proporions of Lee Harvey Oswald, however, I hope you can spot the similarities between the posture captured in the backyard ptotograph and the reconstructed Prayer Man's posture. In both, the left leg is bent and pushed forward, and the body weight rest on the right foot which is placed backward. The arm posture in both pictuers is unusually similar too.

David: Marina was sent Prayer Man pictures, not Altgens6. She was taken through the schematic drawing of the doorway figures (Barnabei) and stopped at the one labelled "J", not at Lovelady or Shelley or anyone else. This was in context of previous Darnell and Wiegman pictures she received by mail. It is true that the recorded conversation includes Marina's using the name Lovelady, in the sense that one only needs to understand the difference between the two men, Lovelady and Lee - she was not saying that Lovelady in Altgens6 was Lee. That part may raise some questions and it would be very useful to sit with Marina, show her both Altgens6 and Darnell and record the responses. However, I also gather that Marina may not be able to do it due to her health issues which she has mentioned at the beginning of the phone conversation. Under such circumstances, Marina could be severely distressed and confused even in things which healthy people of younger age find easy or trivial. I appreciated that Ed had chosen to make the call short once Marina told she was unwell. It may be worthy to prepare two (sets of) pictures, one with Altgens6-Lovelady and one with Darnell-Prayer Man , shuffle them and ask if any of the figures in any of the photographs resembles Lee. Give her enough time and put her at ease. I would say this should be done by someone who can visit Marina and can see if she is all right on the day. Maybe David Lifton or Gary Shaw? So, we are half-way through here. Some will interpret Marina's statements as a positive identification and some will point to uncertainty in her statements.

Gary: I look forward to reading your book, it will have an honorary place in my digital library. I wonder if you also covered any associations between Connally and Earle Cabell in the time preceding assassination, and Connally's role in making Trade Mart the luncheon venue.

And that stranger would just like that: 1. be identified by his wife to be Lee Oswald. 2. would be 5'9'' tall, the body height of Lee Oswald. 3. would be a male. 4. would be a white Caucasian. 5. would have dark hair and a hairline matching accurately Lee's hairline. 6. would wear a worker type of shirt, pulled out of pants, and of colour (light red) corresponding to Prayer Man's grey shirt if converted into grey scale. 7. would assume a posture which Lee Oswald had often displayed. This looks like too many coincidences for one man, would you agree?

David: I do not concur with Bart's localisation of Mrs. Stanton in Darnell and think it does not make any good service to Prayer Man cause to insist on this solution without further supporting evidence. Mrs. Stanton's location in the doorway is pretty simple to understand once you know that she was very tall 5'6'' and that she had thick light grey hair. So, you can ask yourself a question: where in the doorway in Darnell still is a grey strip which Mrs. Stanton's hair would cause in a black-and-white photograph? It should be sought at the level of Mrs. Frazier nose. Why? Because Mrs. Stanton's son Larry was just about 1 or 1/2 inch taller than Mr. Frazier and in the family photograph with her son Larry, Mrs. Stanton's grey hair reaches just to Larry's nose. And yes, Darnell indeed shows such a light grey strip just to the left of Buell Frazier where he always placed her in his interviews. Please see below Darnell still with a yellow line (orientated in parallel with the horizontal door frame) connecting the grey band to his left with his nose. The other picture is the family photograph in which the yellow connecting line points to the top of Stanton's grey hair and Larry's nose. The family picture of Mrs. Stanton, you may appreciate, completely excludes her as Prayer Man even if Debra Conway or Mr. Frazier would say the opposite. Prayer Man has his head too low compared to where it should be if s/he would be 5'6'' and likewise: where is Mrs. Stanton's thick grey hair in Prayer man?

David: you would not believe anything that Mr. Doyle says, would you? Mrs. Stanton had thick grey hair on the top of her 5'6'' body. She was seriously obese and she was, of course, a woman. Where can you see these features in Prayer Man?

I feel delighted with the new developments, the Hosty's authentic notes and now Marina's positive identification of Lee as Prayer Man. Congratulations on your effort and of all involved. My role in PM case is close to none, although my 3D modelling work may be handy at some point. Actually, I am not far from making final overlays of my realistic model of Lee Oswald and Prayer Man. Of course, I did them and see the perfect match, however, it is not the same to see it in my workshop and to publish it - every single detail is scrutinised (even those aspects which do not have much to do with Prayer Man) and used to damage the whole Prayer Man cause.

This is another important development in Prayer Man saga, and thumb up to all those who worked on this project.

I may be wrong, however, I see the ceiling light in the first-floor vestibule behind the glass door lit up in Darnell film. I wonder how this could be if the power in the building was out.

I agree that the photo is a bit blurred and does not provide all details as we would wish to see, and Mr. Frazier could use this to say what he has said. I also remember that someone else asked the same question and Mr. Frazier responded that he was not even aware that someone would stand there. Autobiographical memories can be activated by prompts, such as odors or pictures. I would be keen to show Mr. Frazier the 3D model of the doorway and ask him to comment on any figure there, not explicitly about Prayer Man. Maybe he would recall who this person and other people in the doorway were when the whole scene would be revived in front of him. Would your friend be willing to show Mr. Frazier some model images and record what he has to say?

I will ask some distinguished people whom the community respects very much to advise. If Jim would be keen to help or even write to the Sixth Floor, I would support it. I myself will not write anything as a request because it could be easily turned down and it would be a precedent. (I have to say that the Sixth Floor Museum was unusually supportive when I approached them 3-4 times with my requests). I am not familiar with US laws to know how and what can be asked.

Francois: I see no point in repeating again all the reasons for exploring the possibility that Oswald was Prayer Man. Jeremy and others have summarised some main points excellently. Something important happened last week and I would like that we take this forward and make another step. It may be worthy to understand where we differ the most in our opinions. 1. There was a massive cover-up involving manipulations with evidence, suppressing some testimonies and advising people what to say and what not to say. This cover-up was government-led and it continues until today. There is no way that any US president would ever reveal the most secret information pertaining to this case. A very large number of documents have been released but not the most important ones. We may never see those documents which would shed light on the case (e.g., Oswald's tax records, destroyed SS documents). In contrast, you believe that there was no cover-up, and it is only the conspiracy theorist's mind which craves for data which do not exist. 2. We attribute different weights to Hosty's and Fritz'/Bookhout's testimonies. This most recent finding (Hosty's notes) is a breakthrough because it brought to daylight a recording from the very first interrogation before any cover-up could kick in. Hosty's notes were made as Oswald spoke. The validity of these notes is incomparable to the validity of e.g., Fritz's notes which I gather were drafted maybe years after the interrogation using Bookhout's notes as the template. As cover-up was in place already on the evening of November 22 ("the case is cinched"), any post-hoc elaborated notes would contain references to incriminating information which Oswald never said. Hosty does not mention the 2nd-floor encounter and as his notes were authentic (similar to a stenographic record), it is for this reason that the scenario without the 2nd-floor lunchroom encounter is the more likely version of events. You instead do not have any doubts about the 2nd-floor lunchroom encounter. 3. We also differ in interpreting "in" and "out" in the context of Oswald's whereabouts during the shooting. Those believing in the veracity of Hosty's notes say that Oswald had lunch in the first-floor lunchroom when shots rang out. (I would say when the first shot rang out). Thus it is possible to say he was in the building during the shooting, and that he did not watch the motorcade. Oswald moved to the front and got to the doorway just seconds after the last shot and we see him at the western wall as Prayer Man. So, he saw a tail of the motorcade (in a way he saw part of the parade) and he surely saw the excitement. He surely was in the vicinity of Mr. Shelley just seconds after the shooting. In contrast, you believe that Oswald was shooting at the President during this critical period and that he was buying another Coke when Baker entered the lunchroom. It is impossible to resolve these differences at this stage. I hope more new data will pop up and that Darnell and Wiegman films will be eventually given to the public as Z-film was.

Fracois: please, count me in. So, where do we go from here now? The living witnesses, Mr. Frazier and Mr. Lewis, should be asked who was the unknown man standing at the western wall of the Depository doorway. Also, a letter (petition?) should be sent to the Sixth Floor Museum requesting a digital copy of just one frame of Darnell film (the one we all use, the sharpest one). The letter should point to this new evidence and ask for collaboration. I am not a US citizen and cannot help in that, however, it may be worthy to contact a member of the Congress and/or member of Oswald's or Kennedy's family to support this request. There must be a way to break the unnecessary lock-down for this film. I can help with providing an overlay of Oswald's figure onto Prayer Man and explaining why Prayer Man could only be a person 5'9'' (meaning a male and male of Oswald's body height), however, the letter could well go without any of my data.

As to the timing of Lee Oswald's movements during and just after shooting, there does not seem to be enough detailed data in witness testimonies. Based on data presented in this thread, I am inclined to believe that Oswald was in the 1st floor lunchroom when shots rang out which should satisfy our LN colleagues here (Oswald was in the building during the shooting). However, he moved to the front of the first floor and into the doorway (the glass door was semi-open throughout the assassination) when he heard shots and he reached his spot as Prayer Man only seconds after the last shot (he saw the tail of the P. parade and the excitement). We see Prayer Man at his spot in Wiegman but I fail to see him at that spot in Hughes. I asked Chris Davidson for his estimate of the 1st Wiegman frame showing the doorway (W14) relative to Z313. Dale Meyer's estimate (frame Z257 = W14) does not seem to be plausible because some of the doorway occupants changed their postures/locations significantly between Altgens6 (Z255) and W14. As a small example: Carl Jones stares to the east (Houston Street) in Altgens6 but not in Wiegman.

Francois: there are points on which we can agree and this is certainly one of those.