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# What are the odds?

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Anyone good with maths here?

Scenario;

JFK is shot through the head by person X

Less than an hour later, a few miles away, another man, who was called JFK by his colleagues due to similarities, is shot through the head by the same person X

A similar fictional scenario to put it in perspective would be;

Abraham Lincoln is shot through the head by person X

Less than an hour later, a few miles away, another man, who was called ABE by his colleagues due to similarities, is shot through the head by the same person X

What would be a good formula to work out the odds?

The calculation would have to account for person X not personally knowing either victim

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15 hours ago, Tony Krome said:

Anyone good with maths here?

Scenario;

JFK is shot through the head by person X

Less than an hour later, a few miles away, another man, who was called JFK by his colleagues due to similarities, is shot through the head by the same person X

A similar fictional scenario to put it in perspective would be;

Abraham Lincoln is shot through the head by person X

Less than an hour later, a few miles away, another man, who was called ABE by his colleagues due to similarities, is shot through the head by the same person X

What would be a good formula to work out the odds?

The calculation would have to account for person X not personally knowing either victim

Hey there Tony...   I do Odds for a living....

What "odds" are you trying to calculate here?  Person X "not knowing" either victim is not calculable at all... and how does that have anything to do with odds?

To determine the odds of something happening we have to find sets of finite numbers to explain the situation... and then we need to determine which formulas to use based on the number of possibilities.

Let's start at the beginning....   Person A is shot by person X.   You ask - what are the odds of Person X not knowing Person A... (what does that mean in reference to Oswald and JFK? that they didn't dine together or that each was aware of the other's existence/presence?  Maybe if you rephrase the Q?

the first ODDS Question could be:  What are the Odds that it is person X and not person Y who did the shooting?
Is there a FINITE # SET that we can apply to find the total population of those who COULD have shot Person A?  Sure we can...

• Do we know for a FACT from which way the shot originated so that we can begin removing #'s from the set...  in our case many agree the shot which killed Person A came from the front and to the right where there could not have been more than 30 people in a position to accomplish such a feat.
Yet, one of the facts is that our person X was behind Person A... the odds of Person X shooting Person A from the front are ZERO.

So let's assume the shot is agreed to have come from the same direction person X was in relation to Person A....  what happens to the finite set of #'s now?
How many people are behind Person A with the ability to shoot a rifle...  Sadly this is yet another FACT which we cannot know... the # of windows, the # of spectators, the different kinds of rifles/silencers available... etc...

And this is just the very first part of the first half of the question!

Events like these are not something that ODDS can explain Tony....  "Astronomical Odds" has no real meaning if the event being observed is not from a finite set of possibilities based on agreed upon FACTS...   Cinque/Fetzer tried to pull an odds statement out of the Prayerman issue... based on what may or may not have been changed in the Altgens photo.... and whether or not visual things "matched" or not...  can't be done.

Define the # universe we are in... THEN we can do odds...

=====

Google: hypergeometric distribution.  this is how we figure Odds for things like Powerball where you have 2 matrices, without replacement of the numbers chosen and millions and millions of combinations of plays.  Matching 5 of 5 numbers with the Lottery picking 5 numbers from 69  AND matching 1 of 1 with the lottery choosing 1 of 26 gives odds of around 300,000,000 : 1 .

Excel does the math for you luckily.  There is also the Poisson distribution which is applied to very large number problems

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22 minutes ago, David Josephs said:

To determine the odds of something happening we have to find sets of finite numbers to explain the situation... and then we need to determine which formulas to use based on the number of possibilities.

David, the "not knowing" part was meant to discount the possibility of person X actively looking for victim B for any reason, in other words, he goes from one JFK to another "JFK" totally unaware he exists

Possible criteria for finite numbers;

From the location of the first victim, we have a conical area of escape to the Oak Cliff area, and that cone area population becomes a finite number. Or do we draw circle with victim A at the centre? Obviously, you would do the circle first anyway to easily determine the conical area population.

The population as determined from above could then be broken down to a ratio that represents people that share a likeness to a famous person, in this case JFK

I think I'm on the right track

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1 hour ago, Tony Krome said:

I think I'm on the right track

Well... sort of.

You've skipped ahead already though...  Where did the shot you are concerned with, come from?  IOW - What is the finite # of possibilities as to the location of the shooter?

How many windows overlook Dealey Plaza that have the POTENTIAL to be used as a sniper's perch?

See?  Before we even get rolling we are hit with an impossible task given the actual FACTS as opposed to the WCR.

Even if we were to accept shots from the 6th floor window AND that Oswald pulled the trigger... there aren't any finite sets of #'s we can define that gets him from one place to the next.

This mind-problem is not one that can be expressed as a probability in real terms until we define and accept a set of basic facts...
which, sadly, all these years later is still difficult to do.

Only with those things which are Objective can we create a probability....

Probability = the number of ways of achieving success. the total number of possible outcomes.
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10 hours ago, David Josephs said:

Well... sort of.

You've skipped ahead already though...  Where did the shot you are concerned with, come from?  IOW - What is the finite # of possibilities as to the location of the shooter?

How many windows overlook Dealey Plaza that have the POTENTIAL to be used as a sniper's perch?

See?  Before we even get rolling we are hit with an impossible task given the actual FACTS as opposed to the WCR.

Even if we were to accept shots from the 6th floor window AND that Oswald pulled the trigger... there aren't any finite sets of #'s we can define that gets him from one place to the next.

This mind-problem is not one that can be expressed as a probability in real terms until we define and accept a set of basic facts...
which, sadly, all these years later is still difficult to do.

Only with those things which are Objective can we create a probability....

Probability = the number of ways of achieving success. the total number of possible outcomes.

Ok, I was more focussed on the probability of person X crossing paths with victim B, that shared a likeness, and was so alike, that his colleagues called him by the same name as victim A. All this within a short distance and timeframe.

I know I did mention that both victims were shot through the head, but that probability could be put down to person X as being an excellent shot, no matter where he was shooting from.

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I will have a crack at this........on November 22nd 1963

Dallas population approx 700,000

Fort worth population approx 400,000....

Visitors to Dallas from surrounding areas an afar  that day 100,000.................Total  1,200,000   half are men(99.9% chance assassin of JFK was male) = 600,000 in close enough proximity to get to a position to fire at the president and kill him.

Oswald = 1 in 600,000     (i know, i know we could reduce this number greatly but we need a statistical starting point)

Out of the 600,000 males in the area what are the chances that someone is a JFK look-a- like....enough to be teased about it or given a nickname regarding their JFK resemblance, may be 4,5,6 maybe 10 people out of that 600,000  lets go with 10

so that's 1 in 60,000 males is a JFK look-a-like (i am sure its probably more like 4 or 5 in 600,000)

So we have a 1 in 600,000 killer of JFK who then has a 1 in 60,000 chance of killing another person that day that looks like JFK............

Tony Said "  JFK is shot through the head by person X,   Less than an hour later, a few miles away, another man, who was called JFK by his colleagues due to similarities, is shot through the head by the same person X "

BOTTOM  LINE   the Odds = 1 in (599,999 x 60,000)  or in laymen's terms = PRETTY F#@KING UNLIKELY

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34 minutes ago, Adam Johnson said:

Out of the 600,000 males in the area what are the chances that someone is a JFK look-a- like....enough to be teased about it or given a nickname regarding their JFK resemblance, may be 4,5,6 maybe 10 people out of that 600,000  lets go with 10

I wouldn't be surprised at your estimate of 10 or less. Think of Elvis impersonators, most don't even look like him.

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Enough with stuffing a round peg into a square hole guys....  Odds and what y'all are discussing are mutually exclusive.

The only true statement so far is:

7 hours ago, Adam Johnson said:

PRETTY F#@KING UNLIKELY

What's worse is that the odds of numerous, different things happening is the product of multiplying the individual odds of each event... if one could even do odds for the individual events...

You'd have a better chance getting Ozzie to Mexico or proving he ever touched C2766 or any other Carcano for that matter.

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The above are what I call "strange coincidences".  They look like smoke from a distance but really are just coincidences that large historical events tend to have, i.e, comparing it to the Lincoln assassination which also was a conspiracy.  The problem is some confuse coincidences as factual proof of something when in fact they are window dressing to the real facts.  That is coordinated radio communication in the Plaza which is the real provable smoking gun as I have said before.

Edited by Cory Santos
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Is the unspoken correlative here that one JFK's body was substituted for the other after both were dead?  Does not compute.

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I''m reminded that either Jackie or Bobby (I forget which one) remarked after viewing the body at the White House that "it doesn't even look like him."

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5 minutes ago, Ron Ecker said:

I''m reminded that either Jackie or Bobby (I forget which one) remarked after viewing the body at the White House that "it doesn't even look like him."

So is JFK buried in Tippet's lonely grave by the chain-link fence in Texas?

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30 minutes ago, David Andrews said:

So is JFK buried in Tippet's lonely grave by the chain-link fence in Texas?

No, I actually believe in the Two JFKs theory. I'm working on the book ("John and Fitzgerald").

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28 minutes ago, Ron Ecker said:

No, I actually believe in the Two JFKs theory. I'm working on the book ("John and Fitzgerald").

Star witness Howard Brennan and his wife nearly fell over when JFK walked into their home

There standing in our little hallway was John F. Kennedy, alive again. At least that's what I thought at that instant. The man standing there was the exact double of the late President in every detail. Had I not known that the President was dead, I would have staked my life that I was being visited by him. Every feature about him, his face, his hair, his build, even his clothes looked exactly like the President. It was as if a ghost had suddenly appeared. Even his voice sounded so much like Mr. Kennedy's. My mind simply couldn't absorb it all and Louise was struck dumb, her eyes wide open in amazement.

Edited by Tony Krome