The Killing Floor

[Joe Bauer]

Is the Geraldine Reid story absolutely debunked?

[Ron Bulman]

2 hours ago, Joe Bauer said:

Is the Geraldine Reid story absolutely debunked?

Yes. see part II here.

Robert Groden, Absolute Proof (kennedysandking.com)

[Pete Mellor]

3 hours ago, Joe Bauer said:

Is the Geraldine Reid story absolutely debunked?

Geneva Hine stayed behind in the second floor office. She noticed that the phone lines and the power was shut down while the motorcade passed the building. After the shooting, she went into the corridor to knock on a few doors of neighbouring offices and got no reply from anyone (even though she heard someone on the other side of the door speaking on the phone). She then went back into the office and said as per her Warren Commission testimony that she saw Reid come back into the office as part of a group.

Hine’s FBI statement from Nov 23^rd states:

1.  She was alone in the office between 12:25 and 12:35 

2.     She was aware of who Oswald was, not knowing his name though, but that he would come to the 2^nd floor to get change for the Coke machine from one of the other employees and that she did NOT see him on Nov. 22^nd!

3.     The first person to arrive in the offices was a police man, who told her not to leave.

Geneva Hine’s Warren Commission, testimony:- 

Mr. BALL. When you came back in did you see Mrs. Reid?

Miss HINE. No, sir; I don’t believe there was a soul in the office when I came back in right then.

Mr. BALL. Did you see anybody else go in through there?

Miss HINE. No, sir; after I answered the telephone then there was about four or five people that came in.

Mr. BALL. Was there anybody in that room when you came back in and went to the telephone?

Miss HINE. No, sir; not to my knowledge.

Mr. BALL. Did you see Mrs. Reid come back in?

Miss HINE. Yes, sir; I think I felt sure that I did. I thought that there were five or six that came in together. I thought she was one of those.

Mr. BALL. Mrs. Reid told us she came in alone and when she came in she didn’t see anybody there.

Miss HINE. Well, it could be that she did, sir. I was talking on the phones and then came the policemen and then came the press. Everybody was wanting an outside line and then our vice president came in and he said “The next one that was clear, I have to have it and so I was busy with the phone.

Mr. BALL. From the time you walked into the room you became immediately busy with the phone?

Miss HINE. Yes, sir; sure was.

Mr. BALL. Did you see Oswald come in?

Miss HINE. My back would have been to the door he was supposed to have come in at.

Mr. BALL. Were you facing the door he is supposed to have left by?

Miss HINE. Yes, sir.

Mr. BALL. Do you recall seeing him?

Miss HINE. No, sir.

Mr. BALL. Do you have any definite recollection of Mrs. Reid coming in?

Miss HINE. No, sir; I only saw four or five people that came by and they all came and were all talking about how terrible it was.

Mr. BALL. Do you remember their names?

Miss HINE. Yes, sir.

Mr. BALL. Who were they?

Miss HINE. Mr. Williams, Mr. Molina (spelling), Miss Martha Reed, Mrs. Reid, Mrs. Sarah Stanton, and Mr. Campbell; that’s all I recall, sir.

[Sandy Larsen]

On 10/28/2022 at 7:06 PM, Gene Kelly said:

Sandy

Nuclear engineer for the last 40+ years ... undergraduate in physics.  Led plenty of investigations (technical in nature) in my time.  Used various root cause techniques.  Worked previously for the government as an inspector. More recently in risk management (hence the probability/statistics comment).  If one uses Bayesian mathematical techniques to analyze Ruth Paine's "coincidences" and Oswald's timely appearance as a stocking clerk at the TSBD, it doesn't pass what we call in my business as the "red-faced" test.

Gene

 

Nuclear engineering, eh? Quite different from my digital signal processing (DSP) specialty in electrical engineering.

Speaking of statistics, the toughest math class I ever took was Statistic 563 (IIRC), paradoxically a graduate-level introduction to statistics. Ha! Our university of 25,000 students had a Statistics College that taught only that one class. It did cover Bayesian statistics, BTW. Though the "red-faced" test is new to me.  😎

I had a goal of getting straight A's for my masters degree. Unfortunately I had only an 87% average in the statistics class at mid-semester, so it looked like I wasn't going to make my goal. Luckily for me, the class was hard for ALL the students and the professor graded on the bell curve (a.k.a. Gaussian distribution, speaking of statistics) and I got my A after all!

 

[Gene Kelly]

Sandy

In my later years, my nuclear work has been in risk management, using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models to examine a complex system's potential risk, and identify what problems could have the most impact on safety. PRA uses (a) event trees to model the plant response; (b) fault tree logic to model various combinations of failures that disable an overall system and calculate the overall failure probability.; and (c) human reliability analysis to assess the probability of human mistakes in light of factors such as training, procedures, and expected conditions during an event.  So, I am no stranger when it comes to probability and statistics.

A red face (or straight face) test is whether something is legitimate or serious based on whether a given statement or legal argument can be made sincerely, without any compulsion to blush (or laugh). Saying one passes the red face test means one would not be embarrassed by disclosing something to others or doing something ... saying one fails the red face test means a situation would cause them discernible embarrassment.  We use it a lot in my workplace, when trying to convince colleagues of a particular argument. 

So, asserting that Mr. Oswald getting that job was simply a confluence of coincidence doesn't pass that test for me.  

Gene

 

[James DiEugenio]

I agree with you Gene.

I also find it interesting what Doug Horne said about Truly to Oliver Stone.

Plus the fact, he is the one who reports that Oswald is missing.

 

[Matt Allison]

11 hours ago, Gene Kelly said:

So, asserting that Mr. Oswald getting that job was simply a confluence of coincidence doesn't pass that test for me.  

On the day Oswald was hired, no one knew JFK would ever be driven past the TSBD.

No one.

Not plotters. Not the WH. Not LInnie Mae Randle. Not Ruth Paine.

The denial about this is getting embarrassing.

[Sandy Larsen]

15 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

On the day Oswald was hired, no one knew JFK would ever be driven past the TSBD.

No one.

Not plotters. Not the WH. Not LInnie Mae Randle. Not Ruth Paine.

The denial about this is getting embarrassing.

 

And yet Oswald just happens to end up at a perfect place for the assassination.

Matt won't even consider the likelihood that the plotters had influence over those choosing the motorcade route. And over the owner of the building. He must think that that the assassination wasn't much different than a deer hunt. If you don't bag a deer this time, no prob... there always next weekend.

Never mind all the time and effort invested in setting up Oswald as a co-conspirator in Mexico City. And all the effort in Dallas, planting evidence that Oswald was wild-man killer going around choosing assassination sites.

 

[Matt Allison]

There's really no need for insults, Sandy.

Your suspicions are speculation.

If you have evidence that counters the facts I presented, let's hear it.

Saying some mysterious unknown plotter could predict or control future events is no way to approach the historical record.

[Ron Bulman]

32 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

On the day Oswald was hired, no one knew JFK would ever be driven past the TSBD.

No one.

Not plotters. Not the WH. Not LInnie Mae Randle. Not Ruth Paine.

The denial about this is getting embarrassing.

Your right Matt.  No one Knew.  But by that date the plotters knew JFK had committed to a trip to Texas in the fall to heal the fractured democratic state party conservative/liberal (Connally/ ) problem.  They most likely thought if JFK could be lured to Dallas that his route through it could be altered to accommodate the TSBD.  Which is what happened.  Connally lobbied strongly for it, to the point of refusing to participate in the parade if the speech wasn't at the Trade Mart if I remember correctly.  Which ultimately resulted in the turn from Main to Houston to Elm.  Though that wasn't announced until that morning.

I'll have to dig for documentation without others help.  But this has been discussed in detail previously.

[Matt Allison]

1 minute ago, Ron Bulman said:

But by that date the plotters knew JFK had committed to a trip to Texas in the fall to heal the fractured democratic state party conservative/liberal (Connally/ ) problem. 

Yes. And that's all they knew.

And once in Dallas, JFK only goes where the White House says he can go.

No one else controls that.

A motorcade that would take JFK past the TSBD wasn't put together until a month after Oswald got his job. 

This particular bit of the story wouldn't even be up for debate if people didn't have to try and twist themselves into pretzels trying to incriminate Ruth Paine.

[Matt Allison]

46 minutes ago, Sandy Larsen said:

And yet Oswald just happens to end up at a perfect place for the assassination.

The entire parade route was the perfect place for the assassination.

 

[Sandy Larsen]

27 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

There's really no need for insults, Sandy.

 

That was no insult. (Unless you have a low opinion of deer hunting.) I was just illustrating the absurdity of some of your argument.

I recall your once doing something similar with us. Something about us wanting to make a fantastic story out of a little one.

And now you say that our fantastic story is a pretzel-like result of our trying to incriminate Ruth Paine. You need to read a book or two. The evidence is what incriminates Ruth! Circumstantial evidence... something that you seem not to understand. Fitting the pieces together.

 

[Sandy Larsen]

47 minutes ago, Matt Allison said:

Saying some mysterious unknown plotter could predict or control future events is no way to approach the historical record.

 

The plotter isn't unknown. Evidence indicates that it is the CIA. And some of that evidence indicates that at least some of the plotters were in Angleton's counterintelligence group.

 

[Matt Allison]

How did the CIA in advance control where the motorcade went?