The Motorcade Puzzle

[Gene Kelly]

Mark and David

This is fascinating. Not being a photoanalyst (although I am a physicist), can you summarize for me what this all means?  Eddy posits that there has been a removal of around 9 frames from Zapruder after Z312 - which may have masked a deceleration (to a near stop) and then a rapid acceleration - explaining JFK's rapid head lurch, and suggesting a missing  rear head blowout.  Is your work in essence proof of Z film alteration?   Proof of the limousine slowing to a stop?  Proof of more than 3 shots?  Were these missing frames strategically important because of what happened early in the motorcade?  It seems the Towner film and the Zapruder film were fundamentally different.   

Thanks,

Gene

[Mark Tyler]

On 1/12/2020 at 5:18 PM, Eddy Bainbridge said:

I would like to make a couple of points. I have watched Mark's video and wonder whether there is a flaw around Z312 and after. We know the presidential limo braked(brake lights), but this is not really perceptible on the animation , firstly there is no clearly noticeable coming together of limo and the following car, and secondly if I try to imagine watching this 'live' from a rear or side vantage point then I fail to see anyone reporting a stop or virtual stop (which significant numbers did).

My second point is that I contend there has been a removal of around 9 frames from Zapruder after Z312 (or around 0.5 seconds of film). I suspect this has masked a deceleration (to a near stop) and a rapid acceleration. The result on the extant film (and the animation) looks like a fairly constant speed over this period. This gives an explanation for the overly rapid head lurch, and the evidence suggesting a missing  rear head blowout (probably whilst Kennedy was facing downwards, causing mainly vertical blowout)

 

 

I agree that the limo braked, as the brake light on the right hand side is on briefly in the Muchmore film just before the head shot.  Sadly it's only a partial view, and the Muchmore film only started circa Z280 so we don't know how long it was braking for before that.  However, we do know the average speed went down from about 12 MPH to 8 MPH between Z224 and Z313, which means it was more like 13 MPH down to 7 MPH due to the time taken to accelerate and decelerate.

It's very difficult for bystanders to accurately gauge speed changes in the vehicles.  What we can do though is judge speed by comparing how other vehicles are moving.  In this case we see from the Zapruder film and the Nix film that the bikes are gaining on the limo up to about Z325-Z330 before they start braking and stopping and then the limo accelerates away.  This is evidence of the limo decelerating noticeably, rather than the limo stopping as such, but it does create an optical illusion which might explain why some people think the limo stopped on the day (i.e. brake lights combined with bikes catching up).

Anything is possible Eddy, and I can't rule out tampering with the films to hide something.  However, having looked very closely at the films for this project I have not discovered any obvious glitches or contradictions.  The Zapruder film wasn't published in full for over a decade which has always fuelled suspicions that something was being hidden.  Coupled with known evidence destruction such as Oswald's note to James Hosty being flushed down the toilet, I understand why trust in the authorities in the case has dwindled somewhat.

However, in the case of the Zapruder film certain frames were published by Life magazine within a week or two, with numbers of frames being quoted in the article text.  This means that any tampering would have had to be done extremely rapidly before Life got hold of the film.  This seems somewhat implausible to me given the circumstances.

[Mark Tyler]

17 hours ago, Joseph McBride said:

From my book INTO THE NIGHTMARE:

In the front seat were the driver from the Texas Highway Patrol, Hurchel Jacks, and the VP’s Secret Service agent, Rufus Youngblood. LBJ sat directly behind Youngblood, and Lady Bird between her husband and [Sen. Ralph] Yarborough. Directly ahead of their car was the Secret Service presidential followup car, the “Queen Mary.”

Senator Yarborough, who had “a lifetime of handling arms,” described for me his reactions to the shots fired in Dealey Plaza, giving an eyewitness and earwitness account that matched that of numerous other witnesses but is, like theirs, at odds over some details with what can now be seen in the altered Zapruder film:

"The first shot I heard I thought was a rifle shot. The second shot, the motorcade almost came to a halt. They said later that the president‘s car slowed to something like five miles an hour. I wondered what the hell they were stopping for when somebody is shooting. People were jumping out of the car in front of me [the Secret Service followup car] and running to the president‘s car. I thought maybe somebody had thrown a bomb in there. The third shot I heard was a rifle shot."

Thanks for sharing the quote from Yarborough Joseph; he does seem to be a good witness.  The slowing of the Presidential limo after the first shot is real, and there was indeed "jumping out of the car" by the Secret Service agents which is partially visible on the right hand frame of the Nix film.

Apart from witnesses saying the limo stopped, what other discrepancies between the film and the witness accounts troubles you the most?

[Mark Tyler]

16 hours ago, Ron Bulman said:

Emory Roberts also heard that first shot.  But called back SSA Ready from his attempt to respond.  While Roberts watched JFK die in front of him.   Who told Roberts to back off?

Given the very short time frame between the awareness of the problem to giving the order, I suspect nobody told Roberts to do this.  It was just a heat of the moment decision I guess.  I assume that they were simply taking evasive action by getting out of the danger zone as soon as possible.  If the agents had not been called back then it would have delayed their departure from Dealey Plaza for no benefit.

The death of JFK was clearly a tragedy, but it all happened so rapidly I'm not sure anything else could have been done to prevent it in the seconds between the first shot that hit him, and then the fatal shot.  Even if the car hadn't slowed, it would still have presented a similar target to the assassin(s).  With the first shot fired at Z185 and the fatal shot being fired at Z310, that's less than 7 seconds to do something to block another bullet.  Given the positions of the agents when the shooting started I don't think they could have done anything to stop the ambush succeeding.

[Mark Tyler]

6 hours ago, Gene Kelly said:

Mark and David

This is fascinating. Not being a photoanalyst (although I am a physicist), can you summarize for me what this all means?  Eddy posits that there has been a removal of around 9 frames from Zapruder after Z312 - which may have masked a deceleration (to a near stop) and then a rapid acceleration - explaining JFK's rapid head lurch, and suggesting a missing  rear head blowout.  Is your work in essence proof of Z film alteration?   Proof of the limousine slowing to a stop?  Proof of more than 3 shots?  Were these missing frames strategically important because of what happened early in the motorcade?  It seems the Towner film and the Zapruder film were fundamentally different.   

Thanks,

Gene

No, I don't think the animation proves that any frames have been removed or that the limo stopped.  If there had been any removal of frames then the Nix film and the Muchmore film would also need to be changed as they were filming the same scene from a different angle at about the same frame rate.

While doing this work, and making all of the required measurements, I didn't detect any glitches or jumps in the car sequences or any other problems that I would expect to see if there had been any evidence destruction.  I would suggest that the smoothness of the action in the animation implies that the visual record is complete and has not been tampered with.

Proof of more than 3 shots is tricky, as I think there could have been more than 3 shots, but its hard to know for sure.  In the Zapruder film we see direct proof of 2 or 3 shots depending on whether there is a missed shot at around Z185, and a wounding shot at around Z215.  Proof of multiple gunmen seems to hinge on this 2 second period, and whether there is a second shot or whether there is some kind of delayed reaction to the victim movements that we see at Z224-Z230.

John Connally is convinced that the first shot missed him, and if he is correct then there must have been at least 4 shots in total because there was definitely a shot fired well after the head shot (over a dozen witnesses reported this shot).  2 shots in 2 seconds is proof of multiple gunman because Oswald's gun couldn't be operated that quickly.  4 shots in total is proof of a second gunman as only 3 shots were associated with the TSBD, so the second gunman was located elsewhere.

[Eddy Bainbridge]

53 minutes ago, Mark Tyler said:

I agree that the limo braked, as the brake light on the right hand side is on briefly in the Muchmore film just before the head shot.  Sadly it's only a partial view, and the Muchmore film only started circa Z280 so we don't know how long it was braking for before that.  However, we do know the average speed went down from about 12 MPH to 8 MPH between Z224 and Z313, which means it was more like 13 MPH down to 7 MPH due to the time taken to accelerate and decelerate.

It's very difficult for bystanders to accurately gauge speed changes in the vehicles.  What we can do though is judge speed by comparing how other vehicles are moving.  In this case we see from the Zapruder film and the Nix film that the bikes are gaining on the limo up to about Z325-Z330 before they start braking and stopping and then the limo accelerates away.  This is evidence of the limo decelerating noticeably, rather than the limo stopping as such, but it does create an optical illusion which might explain why some people think the limo stopped on the day (i.e. brake lights combined with bikes catching up).

Anything is possible Eddy, and I can't rule out tampering with the films to hide something.  However, having looked very closely at the films for this project I have not discovered any obvious glitches or contradictions.  The Zapruder film wasn't published in full for over a decade which has always fuelled suspicions that something was being hidden.  Coupled with known evidence destruction such as Oswald's note to James Hosty being flushed down the toilet, I understand why trust in the authorities in the case has dwindled somewhat.

However, in the case of the Zapruder film certain frames were published by Life magazine within a week or two, with numbers of frames being quoted in the article text.  This means that any tampering would have had to be done extremely rapidly before Life got hold of the film.  This seems somewhat implausible to me given the circumstances.

Thank you very much for replying to me. You are doing high quality, difficult analysis so to comment on my amateurish thoughts is very kind. Researchers (Doug Horne being a good example) have considered the opportunity for alteration and made a good case for opportunity being available. Zapruder himself made an odd comment in the Garrison trial about his film being susceptible to alteration. Repeating myself, I don't accept so many witnesses perceived a stop from what you have simulated. I find it implausibly coincidental to the braking that Kennedy moves forward at Z312, but appears to be thrown back at Z313. This was first officially explained as the 'jet effect' kicking in, and then as possibly by a nerve generated action. I suggest it is considerably more likely that Kennedys slumping continued, and the snap we now see is in fact a poor animated simulation of the event. 

[Gene Kelly]

Thanks for the reply Mark 

[Matt Allison]

This is super impressive work; thank you for doing it.

[Mark Tyler]

22 hours ago, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Thank you very much for replying to me. You are doing high quality, difficult analysis so to comment on my amateurish thoughts is very kind. Researchers (Doug Horne being a good example) have considered the opportunity for alteration and made a good case for opportunity being available. Zapruder himself made an odd comment in the Garrison trial about his film being susceptible to alteration. Repeating myself, I don't accept so many witnesses perceived a stop from what you have simulated. I find it implausibly coincidental to the braking that Kennedy moves forward at Z312, but appears to be thrown back at Z313. This was first officially explained as the 'jet effect' kicking in, and then as possibly by a nerve generated action. I suggest it is considerably more likely that Kennedys slumping continued, and the snap we now see is in fact a poor animated simulation of the event. 

The strong head movement is rather difficult to explain, as is the explosion which some gun users have suggested is the result of a frangible bullet rather than the full metal jacket type that came from Oswald's gun.  I'm not experienced with either ballistics or medical matters so I must defer to experts in those fields for guidance.

I've not studied the Garrison trial very much, but your comment about Zapruder sounds interesting.  Is there an online link to this testimony?

[Lewis Reynolds]

Interesting part from the transcripts  regarding the Zapruder film:

https://www.maryferrell.org/showDoc.html?docId=1284&search=zapruder#relPageId=96&tab=page

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by Lewis Reynolds

[Eddy Bainbridge]

16 hours ago, Mark Tyler said:

The strong head movement is rather difficult to explain, as is the explosion which some gun users have suggested is the result of a frangible bullet rather than the full metal jacket type that came from Oswald's gun.  I'm not experienced with either ballistics or medical matters so I must defer to experts in those fields for guidance.

I've not studied the Garrison trial very much, but your comment about Zapruder sounds interesting.  Is there an online link to this testimony?

Hi Mark, I found the Zapruder quote I referred to :

"I couldn't tell if any frames were removed. Seen as a whole it shows that I have seen. Seeing you have 18 frames a second you can take out one or two and I couldn't tell." - Abraham Zapruder, Clay Shaw Trial

It was a rather unpleasant experience, but I watched internet footage of people being shot in the head. In all instances I found the obvious happens : The bullet is travelling so fast that the body barely reacts at all (always away from the shot), a considerable amount of the momentum carries on through the skull and then the body slumps a fraction of a second later.

The passengers in the limo, except JFK are braced, or at least turned from the diection of travel at Z313. Kennedy's snap backwards indicates to me a reaction to the driver accelerating the vehicle so what we now see is a slow, brief slump forward followed by the snap back from acceleration of the car (See Kellerman on car? testimony)

 

[Mark Tyler]

10 hours ago, Lewis Reynolds said:

Interesting part from the transcripts  regarding the Zapruder film:

https://www.maryferrell.org/showDoc.html?docId=1284&search=zapruder#relPageId=96&tab=page

 

7 hours ago, Eddy Bainbridge said:

Hi Mark, I found the Zapruder quote I referred to :

"I couldn't tell if any frames were removed. Seen as a whole it shows that I have seen. Seeing you have 18 frames a second you can take out one or two and I couldn't tell." - Abraham Zapruder, Clay Shaw Trial

Thanks for the references Lewis and Eddy.

Taken at face value Zapruder is confirming that the film is the same as when he saw the original version before he handed it over to Life, but he can't vouch for exact frames.  This seems plausible as he was unlikely to have counted the frames on the original or the copies before they were handed over.

This account contradicts the claims of those who say the whole film is a concoction, with large chunks removed (e.g. the turning of the corner) or recreated in a film studio.  However, it does leave open the possibility that the odd frame here or there may have been suppressed, as David and Chris suggested earlier in this thread.  While I'm not in a position to prove or disprove these claims, I feel that the authorities would be taking a huge risk in doing this so I suspect this isn't what happened.

7 hours ago, Eddy Bainbridge said:

It was a rather unpleasant experience, but I watched internet footage of people being shot in the head. In all instances I found the obvious happens : The bullet is travelling so fast that the body barely reacts at all (always away from the shot), a considerable amount of the momentum carries on through the skull and then the body slumps a fraction of a second later.

The passengers in the limo, except JFK are braced, or at least turned from the diection of travel at Z313. Kennedy's snap backwards indicates to me a reaction to the driver accelerating the vehicle so what we now see is a slow, brief slump forward followed by the snap back from acceleration of the car (See Kellerman on car? testimony)

The car does seem to slow down just before the head shot, and then accelerate soon after but I don't detect any correlation between the change in vehicle momentum relative to JFK and the other passengers.  In other words the backwards movement of JFK's head would seem to relate to the impact of the bullet rather than anything else.  Perhaps rather than a single cause it was a combination of the jet effect and a muscular reaction?  Also, JFK's head was pointed down at a very odd angle at Z312 so this may have contributed to the unusual movements.

As well as the obvious ethical issues involved I think it would be scientifically impossible to recreate the exact circumstances we see in the Zapruder film.  Knowing the exact sequence events such as: the car speed; the position of JFK; etc; would seem to be far too complex to recreate.  As a result I feel the whole area is somewhat difficult to resolve with absolute certainty.  Maybe in the future with more complex computer models it may be possible to understand what happened, but for now I feel it's simply impossible to have any certainty on the matter.

[Chris Davidson]

On 11/16/2019 at 10:16 AM, Chris Davidson said:

I hope you don't truly believe your comment about incompetence related to the WC work.

The only people I know of that refer to CE884(both versions) as "junk data" are those that don't understand its intrinsic value.

I wish you well with the animation, but I've shown you have a problem with the limo speed and until you realize what's needed to resolve it, my input is complete.

I call it "thinking outside the box"

 

 

 

[John Butler]

Mark said,

“While doing this work, and making all of the required measurements, I didn't detect any glitches or jumps in the car sequences or any other problems that I would expect to see if there had been any evidence destruction.  I would suggest that the smoothness of the action in the animation implies that the visual record is complete and has not been tampered with.”

And,

“Taken at face value Zapruder is confirming that the film is the same as when he saw the original version before he handed it over to Life, but he can't vouch for exact frames.  This seems plausible as he was unlikely to have counted the frames on the original or the copies before they were handed over.

This account contradicts the claims of those who say the whole film is a concoction, with large chunks removed (e.g. the turning of the corner) or recreated in a film studio.  However, it does leave open the possibility that the odd frame here or there may have been suppressed, as David and Chris suggested earlier in this thread.  While I'm not in a position to prove or disprove these claims, I feel that the authorities would be taking a huge risk in doing this so I suspect this isn't what happened.”

….

I believe Abe Z. said he didn’t turn his cameral off and filmed the entire parade.

The Zapruder film is in three parts and the middle part is missing.  The first part consists of 132 frames at the beginning of the Zapruder film. The second part is missing. And, the third part begins at Zapruder frame 133 and goes until Z frame 486.  When the facts are summarized, it looks like this:

132 frames divided by 18.3 = 7.2 seconds.  First Part

415.4 frames divided by 18.3 = 22.7 seconds (22.7 seconds multiplied by 18.3 = 415.4 frames).  This is Mark’s measurement which is real close to my guestimate of 22 seconds.  Second Part

353 frames (486-133) divided by 18.3 = 19.2 seconds. Third Part

This short display of facts says that the longest part of the film is missing.  This part is known as the Zapruder Gap.  What this would look like visually is this:

….

….

 “John Connally is convinced that the first shot missed him, and if he is correct then there must have been at least 4 shots in total because there was definitely a shot fired well after the head shot (over a dozen witnesses reported this shot).  2 shots in 2 seconds is proof of multiple gunman because Oswald's gun couldn't be operated that quickly.  4 shots in total is proof of a second gunman as only 3 shots were associated with the TSBD, so the second gunman was located elsewhere.” 

Mark takes the testimony of a dozen witnesses to say there was a fourth shot.  Would he believe this?  I have listed on the forum twice a list of over 50 witnesses that said shooting occurred in front of the TSBD.  This means that shooting occurred in the Zapruder Gap. 

How many witnesses do you need in order to believe something?  Over 50+ witnesses are not enough when it runs contrary to your beliefs.  But, 10 are believable when they concur with what you believe.

The Zapruder film is a fraud and that has been proven too many times by many different people.

I’m with Jack White on questioning the entire visual record.  There are a few things I don’t believe have been tampered with, but they are few and far in between.

Edited January 19, 2020 by John Butler

[Mark Tyler]

On 1/18/2020 at 5:42 PM, Chris Davidson said:

Thanks for taking the time to look at this Chris.  It looks like the Presidential limo in the animation needs to be a little further forward.  Helpfully the Betzner photo is soon after at Z186 and it looks like I have the limo and follow up car too far back there as well.  The error seems to only affect one of the key points so I shall put this on my to do list and hopefully it won't take too long to fix this mistake.  It will change the speeds between Z133 and Z224 somewhat, but hopefully there won't be any strange knock on effects like rapid acceleration and deceleration.

By contrast it looks like the VP car and its follow up might be a little bit too far forward so I shall try and fix that at the same time.

Well spotted!